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Wednesday, January 02, 2019

A sloppy start to the new year as the Dow rose 18 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index has turned around and is moving back up.  We started out with a gap lower on weak news from China.  The fact that the market was able to make it all the way back is a plus but the internal readings on the summation index imply weakness ahead.  We are also making our way back to short term overbought.  My SPY January calls are firmly in the red.  The pop at the open I was expecting today did not materialize.  It looks like I'll be holding this trade into the employment report on Friday now.  GE was up 1/2 and the volume remains heavy.  Gold found buyers to start the new year.  The precious metal was up four bucks but was higher early on.  The US dollar bounced back up as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It could have been a disaster to begin the new year but buyers appeared for a change.  Could the decline be over?  Probably not as I do believe that we need a retest of the recent lows at the least.  I really have no choice at this point but to hold on for a few more days to the SPY January call trade.  It is in a cut the loss mode to be sure.  I sincerely doubt that we'll see a huge upside day in the near term but perhaps I'm wrong.  The only news coming out this week will be the jobs report unless the budget stalemate gets solved in a day.  I would not expect that though.  For now it will just be watch and wait for me.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed to begin the trading year.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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