Thursday, January 03, 2019
The Dow got clobbered today on some bad news from AAPL. The most watched index fell 660 points on good volume. The advance/declines were only negative though. The summation index is moving higher still. On such a negative day like today the A/D line should have read at least 3 or 4 to 1 negative. This implies that the decline will not have legs. The internals of the summation index were negative and that came through for the bears today. My SPY January calls are dead. I did place a limit order to sell them but it won't get hit. It will probably be a total loss to start the new year. A carryover hangover from last year. But really just another bad trade. GE was flat on good volume. Gold continues to shine as it rose a dozen. Getting close to $1300. The US dollar was lower. The XAU added 1 1/4, while GDX gained 3/8. Volume was light. We are at some very heavy resistance for the gold shares. I do not expect GDX to move much higher here without some backing and filling. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite that fact that I'll be starting 2019 with a trading loss. Perhaps today was the beginning of a retest of the most recent lows for the S&P. The internals here say that it will hold. If we get all the way back down to the 2350 level, that would be the spot to try the January calls again. We'll see because it would be a counter trend trade. The trend is down and that isn't going to change anytime soon. AAPL's disappointment could be just the beginning. The short term technical indicators for the S&P are now starting to roll over. We'll simply have to wait and see how bad it gets. The jobs report will be out tomorrow. Regardless of what it says it will probably be viewed as negative. Perhaps we'll get to the S&P closing 20% below the all time high for a bear market sooner rather than later. I'll just have to wait to see how things go tomorrow, exit the losing SPY January call trade and look for the next idea. Asia and Europe were down overnight. We'll see if they follow the US lower tonight. I'm guessing that they will. We'll see how the market reacts to the employment report and call it a week.
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