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Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Back to the upside for the Dow as it gained 171 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow as the advance/declines suggest.  A weak volume rally up to around 270 on the SPY would be the ideal scenario for getting short here.  I'm not sure that will exactly happen but we can hope.  The VIX moved back down today and if it gets to 16.5, that's the signal to get the puts as well.  It is simply a matter of waiting and checking which options to buy if and when we get there.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold fell a buck and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU and GDX had very minor fractional gains on very light volume.  My open order for the GDX February calls was filled so I'm in the next trade.  It is showing a tiny profit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market moved back and forth today as it tries to make up its mind where to go next.  Still plenty of earnings to come and the eventual resolution of the US government shutdown.  I'll still be looking for small run up to 270 on the SPY and then go from there.  We could also stall right here and roll over as well.  If that's the case then it will be too late for me to get short.  There's also the chance that the market just keeps going higher here as well but that isn't the outcome that I'm favoring at the moment.  GDX and gold are both oversold here but as we all know, anything can happen in this game.  Europe and Asia were slightly lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the headlines tomorrow.

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