Monday, January 14, 2019
Slight downside to start the week as the Dow fell 86 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving higher. We opened with a gap lower and then climbed back for most of the day until the final hour. Short term overbought here for the market and some downside is expected but I certainly don't know how much. I did take an elevated risk today by placing an open order for the SPY January puts. It got filled later in the session. With only 4 days left in this option cycle, you can see just how risky taking on a position is here. It's showing a slight profit. I'm not expecting a dramatic drop here but do think that weakness will show up it's just a matter of how much. Today could be it for all I know. GE was off a few cents and the volume was lighter than it has been. GE is due for a rest and remains overbought. Gold was up a couple bucks and the US dollar was a touch lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So I'm in the next trade now and it won't be one that lasts too long. Out by Thursday at the latest and probably before then. The VIX remains oversold while the major averages remain overbought. This condition can persist but it already has. I don't think that it will last all week but it could. My entry price was what I wanted so I decided to take the chance. Earnings are starting to trickle in and that should affect prices either way going forward. Plus we're still not out of the woods with regards to some kind of headline appearing overnight out of nowhere. But you could say that's always the case. The technical indicators say we're in for a break here so I'll stick with that. Could simply be sideways though. The overall market was weaker than the Dow though. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
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