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Thursday, January 17, 2019

Another day, another gain as the Dow rose 163 points on good volume.  the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  It was a one day reversal to the upside as we opened lower and closed higher.  My work indicating a decline today was wrong.  The expected decline did not materialize despite a down open.  The advance was fueled late in the session by a report the the trade tariffs with China were being lifted.  Of course it wasn't true but that didn't matter as the market took off.  I was stopped out of one of my SPY January put trades for a 40% loss.  I sold the other SPY January put trade for a 95% loss.  That trade should have had a stop loss order but did not and that's on me.  Halfway through the first month of the year and already the losses are mounting.  This is the longest losing streak of my trading life.  the market doesn't care though and you've got to keep moving on.  Overbought for days on end now as sellers have gone on vacation.  of course you can make a case for the upside maneuvering for the expiration tomorrow and you could have a valid argument.  The McClellan oscillator signaled for a big move in the next two days yesterday and today would qualify for that.  GE was up over 1/8 on better volume.  Gold dropped a couple bucks and the US dollar was flat.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  RUT broke through its declining tops line today.  We'll see if there is some follow through going forward.  There is a case to be made for the S&P 500 in a 5 wave move up from the lows with this being the fifth and final wave higher.  However with the strength of the move higher here with a V bottom in place may indicate that up is the only path from here.  Certainly a resolution of the trade war with China will provide a stimulus to the upside as todays price action indicates.  The normal overbought and oversold indicators are not working right now.  So it is tough to trade out there on the technical indicators at least for me.  I may have to head to the sidelines for a while after todays trading debacle.  There was a chance early on for a profit in the most recent trade but I was too slow to take it.  The wiping out of the gain came quickly and the sharp rally on the supposed tariffs relief took care of the rest.  At least there was a stop loss order in place there.  I'll simply have to move on and try again.  Europe and Asia were generally lower.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

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