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Tuesday, January 22, 2019

A negative start to the trading week as the Dow fell 301 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were a little over 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues higher.  Volatility returned today but it doesn't mean that this is the beginning of some protracted downturn.  It could be but we don't know yet.  Many times the trading day after expiration is the reverse of the price action on expiration.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week progresses.  Of course today was the kind of price action I was expecting last week but the market simply didn't cooperate.  If we get back to the 270 level on the SPY, I'll try the February puts.  GE lost forty cents on good volume.  Gold was up a bit and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  I did place an order for some GDX February calls as we have reached short term oversold here.  I'm leaving the order in overnight.  Not a lot of money involved here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Selling today as what were hopes last week with regards to the Chine/US trade deal turned into fears over the weekend.  We're at the mercy of headline risk more so than usual until something concrete comes out of this mess.  SPY managed to bounce off of its 50 day moving average and that's a plus.  Still short term overbought here though.  I guess I'm hoping for a move near 270 and we'll see what happens from there.  It would be great to see the VIX make it back down to 16.5 but that looks like it's out of the question after today.  Plenty of time in the February option cycle.  Perhaps I'll wait for the US government shutdown to end and fade the rally off of that.  Many scenarios to deal with as we go forward here.  We'll see if we get any follow through selling tomorrow and take it from there.  Europe and Asia were lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the trading activity tonight. 

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