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Friday, January 04, 2019

A run back to the upside to finish the week as the Dow roared higher by 746 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 10 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading up.  Volatility rules.  The jobs report was better than expected and the Fed said today what the market wanted to hear.  Of course something could happen over the weekend and we'll be right back down again.  That is the nature of the game we're playing right now.  My SPY January calls showed a little life today but they are solid losers.  We'll need more days like today and in a hurry to cut the loss here.  Doubtful.  The VIX is short term oversold now so going higher from here could be a problem.  We're probably still in snap back from the lows of December.  Although yesterday looked like it was a start of a retest, in reality it wasn't.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume remains heavy.  Gold fell today around eight bucks.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  If we do get a pullback here the GDX calls could be the next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's an event driven market to be sure when you can go down 600 points one day and up 700 the next.  The technical indicators aren't much help when the market is being whipsawed around.  The short term indicators have turned back up but we'll see how long that lasts.  Two weeks to go in the January option cycle.  Should be interesting.  I guess my hope here is that another leg up is starting and perhaps we can make it to 2600 on the S&P.  However the McClellan oscillator should be very overbought after todays action and in need of a rest.  I'll go over the charts this weekend and try to figure out a game plan for next week.  I'm inclined to hold onto my SPY January call position for a while longer.  But the odds of it coming back from the dead again are not good.  It already happened once.  But if some good news comes out of nowhere again, who knows?  The market could be off to the races again.  One thing for sure is that you've got to pay attention.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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