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Tuesday, January 29, 2019

A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 54 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow led down by the NASDAQ.  The VIX was slightly higher today.  Waiting on the Fed I guess but I don't expect any surprises there.  I could be wrong.  Two days of US/China talks begin tomorrow.  I'm still leaning towards the SPY February puts but I'm not in a rush to buy them.  GE lost a few cents on good volume.  Gold was up $7 on the futures while the US dollar was just a touch higher.  Gold is clearly now above the 1300 level.  The XAU added 1 7/8 and GDX rose 1/2.  Volume picked up a bit.  Clearly short term overbought for the gold shares now.  However in rallies the short term condition remains as the stocks move higher.  Is that what we are about to see here?  My GDX February calls are solidly in the black with a nice profit.  Perhaps I should simply take it here.  We are at the near term resistance level of 22.  Something to consider overnight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Lots of news and announcements for the rest of the week for the market to digest.  I suppose what I'd really like to do is wait for the VIX to get to 16.5 and then get the SPY puts.  Not sure if I have the patience or discipline to do that but I should.  The NASDAQ daily indicators have clearly rolled over but the other indices including RUT not so much.  I guess I'll wait for one more push to the upside for stocks and look foe the SPY puts there.  If stocks just drop from here I at least have the GDX trade to fall back on.  Never easy in this game.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trading.  We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow and keep an eye on the market reaction.

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