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Wednesday, January 30, 2019

The market powered higher today after the dovish Fed speak as the Dow climbed 435 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading up.  Overbought and staying that way for the major stock indices.  The SPY is about to break its down trend line that began last October.  However there is still plenty of overhead resistance, including the 200 day moving average at 271.  I'm still inclined to try the SPY February puts here if we continue higher near term.  We have been overbought for quite a length of time.  The VIX is practically within a point of the 16.5 level that is my signal to short.  Now of course I could be wrong here because if we get some good news out of the US/China talks the market should take off again.  I'll consider what to do this evening and go from there.  GE was up twenty cents on good volume.  Earnings tomorrow will dictate the near term there.  Gold rallied on the Fed with the futures gaining ten bucks.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up a point and GDX added 1/4.  Volume was good as money continues to make its way into the gold shares.  Short term overbought here but it could stay that way.  We did finish off of the best levels here.  I sold my GDX February calls.  I didn't get the best price of the session as GDX climbed to 22.5.  I did manage a nice gain of over 400% though for the trade.  My fear is that I've sold too early because there is still over two weeks to go in the February option cycle.  But at least it was a winner for a change and I certainly needed that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Everything is now looking up for the market with the Fed out of the way.  Of course that could all change with tomorrows headlines but right now it feels like there's another leg up here for stocks.  It still looks like we've had a V shape recovery in prices and there will be no retest of the lows.  The Dow is poised to break above its 200 day moving average tomorrow.  Perhaps the SPY puts are the wrong idea here but if the VIX gets to 16.5 I'm giving them a shot.  I'll also be keeping an eye on the GDX because it looks like the rally there is for real.  Waiting for the next oversold level to trade long there again.  Europe was generally higher and Asia mixed overnight.  I would expect to see the foreign markets rally on the heels of the US.  We'll see if there are any developments form the China/US talks overnight. 

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