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Wednesday, January 09, 2019

Another day another gain as the Dow rose 91 points on continued heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The McClellan oscillator is above the +340 level.  This is a very rare occurrence and the only way it can go from here is down.  I did look at the SPY January puts today but did not buy any.  We are getting to the overhead resistance in the S&P at 2600.  You could make a case for 2650 but that it about it.  The February puts are very pricey still due to the recent volatility.  I might try the puts but haven't yet made up my mind.  I did finally sell the SPY January calls that I had for a 50% loss.  I can live with that.  They were a total wipe out at one point.  Poor entry there yielded poor results.  I'm moving on.  GE lost few cents and the volume was lighter than lately.  Gold found buyers again and was up $8.  The US dollar fell, which I'm sure helped gold.  The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was light.  Sill overbought here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Short term overbought for the S&P as well and we are in the vicinity of overhead resistance.  All signs point to some downside here but the timing as always will be the key.  The lack of sellers recently is a concern on going short here.  But I think if we get up to the 50 day moving average soon, I'll be trying the puts.  However it's possible that the market doesn't get that far.  One thing that I am fairly certain of is that we are not just going to break through the overhead resistance.  We have both a down trend line and sideways congestion pattern to get through on the S&P.  That will take some time and I certainly can't see the market breaking through on the first attempt.  I could be wrong but don't think that I am in this instance.  The key question here is when to try the SPY January puts before expiration next Friday.  I don't have that answer yet.  Europe and Asia were both higher as money is coming back into stocks worldwide.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading.

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