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Wednesday, January 16, 2019

The market climb continues as the Dow gained 141 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Overbought and staying that way, which is a sign of strength.  My SPY January puts are dead.  However I do believe that tomorrow will be a down session according to my work.  So I purchased some other SPY January puts at a closer to the money strike price.  This is a one day trade for me as I will be out tomorrow regardless.  The risk is extreme since there are only two trading days left for this.  Now I could be simply completely wrong here.  The market can certainly drift higher in to the expiration.  With a positive expiration bias that's usually in place, a drift upwards can certainly happen.  But I've also got to believe in what I'm doing, so I gave this trade a shot.  It's showing a slight profit but tomorrow will tell the story.  GE was up 1/4 on what now passes as average volume.  Gold was up a bout five bucks and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX were flat on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market remains resilient here as the bank earnings this week were not particularly good but those stocks have rallied anyway.  Perhaps the bad news was already priced in and the thought is that things will only get better from here.  Whatever the excuses, we cannot ignore the V shaped rally that has taken place.  We are in the overhead resistance at this point.  I can make a case to go a bit higher from here but I do believe that the declining tops line that is in place for the S&P 500 will be tough to overcome the first time around.  I would also keep an eye on the down trend line for RUT.  That index is usually a leader and it is right at that declining line.  If RUT would be able to break through here that would be entirely bullish for stocks going forward.  Hasn't happened yet but I'll be keeping an eye on it.  The Brexit drama out of England really hasn't been an issue for the US stock market.  Asia and Europe were generally higher overnight.  We'll see if the expected decline takes place tomorrow.

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