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Monday, January 07, 2019

Some follow through to Fridays upside today as the Dow gained about 100 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  It has turned around and so has the market for now.  Getting short term overbought for the S&P but not all they way there just yet.  My SPY January calls are still solid losers and losing time and volatility value as the days go on.  We'll need to see at least a 500 point upside day for this to be a cut the loss scenario.  I doubt that will happen but you never know in todays environment.  The very high readings of the McClellan oscillator here say that the worst is over for the market.  Perhaps what we'll see is a V bottom instead of the retest that I was looking for.  Hard to say at this point.  GE continues upwards and gained 1/2 on very heavy volume.  Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Overbought here for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not a lot of economic data due out this week.  China and the US are having trade talks today and tomorrow.  Good or bad news from that could sway the market in either direction.  Headline risk remains in the forefront for now.  Of course there's always the earnings pre-announcements to deal with as well.  But we'll stick with the technical indicators.  Short term overbought for right now and if we stay that way the rally will continue.  If not, we'll have to see how far back down the market drops.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow today and the small stocks are acting well.  So perhaps there's a little more room to the upside in the near term.  Asia was higher last night but Europe was a touch lower as Brexit is still looming on the trading minds over there.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and watch for news out of the China/US trade talks.

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