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Tuesday, January 08, 2019

The market continues to climb as the Dow gained 256 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trending higher at a good clip.  The McClellan oscillator is now over +300.  We are due for some kind of pause here because the upside momentum has reached an extreme.  That doesn't mean a collapse is imminent or that we can't go higher after a rest.  It does probably mean though that my SPY January calls will be losers with only eight days left in the January option cycle.  The US/China trade talks weren't a disaster and the market rallied.  We are getting earnings pre-announcement misses already.  That will put a damper on things going forward.  GE was off over 1/8 on pretty heavy volume.  It also had a one day reversal to the downside.  Gold was off a few bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX closed little changed on very light volume.  Still overbought on the short term here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Short term overbought and getting near some pretty good resistance of 2600 for the S&P.  Maybe we get another day of upside but the odds favor a pullback in the near term.  I really need to dump the SPY January calls that I have for a loss and move on.  Perhaps tomorrow on the open if we see some strength.  Probably should have done that today in retrospect.  The VIX is very oversold here as well and that means some downside is on the way.  How much is the question.  Can we squeeze out another day of gains here for the S&P?  That's another question that will be answered tomorrow.  The volume has been good here to the upside, so the rally is believable.  That does kind of make the case for a V bottom.  However I don't think that we'll get high enough to save my SPY January call trade.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

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