It was a day of back and forth and the Dow finished with a gain of 26 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is trying to stop its decline. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with both the NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 lower. The S&P remains oversold but not extremely so. Option expiration week and perhaps we'll see the usual positive bias. The S&P 500 now has short, medium and long term down trend lines to get through. Plenty of spots to try the SPY puts if you're inclined. Gold was a bit higher on the futures today. Both the US dollar and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. The gold shares remain short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and has plenty of room to go down as it remains above the 20 level. Ideally we'd like to see it get back to the 200 day moving average and trendline support. That would set us up to try the SPY puts. However the market rarely cooperates. With only 4 days left in the May option cycle I'll most likely stay on the sidelines for now. Perhaps try the GDX June calls but we'll see. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see how thihgs go tomorrow.

We've been looking for some kind of bounce and we saw it today as the Dow gained 466 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but is trying to halt its decline. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. Still short term oversold for the major stock indices. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. However one day does not make a rally. But the extreme oversold conditions that we've seen prevail may finally be coming to an end. They have already lasted longer than usual. That doesn't necessarily mean the decline is completely over but perhaps the selling will halt for now. Gold dropped another $15 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU rose 2 2/3 while GDX was up over 2/3. Volume was a bit above average. The gold shares followed the overall market higher today. I did place an open order for the GDX May calls overnight but canceled it early this morning. Perhaps I'll try the GDX June calls as we move forward. GDX continues to be short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved lower today and the short term technical indicators have moved lower as well. The VIX is sitting on a short term up trend line and if it can break lower from here I'd expect the bounce to continue. My guess is that's what about to happen but I could be wrong. We are overdue for the sellers to take a break though. Option expiration week is upon us. Not sure what to expect this time around. The NASDAQ has been in a bear market and the S&P 500 almost joined it this week. I still think that it is only a matter of time before the S&P gets there. It looks like the weekly S&P 500 chart has a massive head and shoulders top that has been triggered. The measuring objective there would be the 3600 level. That's eventually where I feel this is going. Plenty of charts to go over this weekend. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

More selling today but a last hour bounce limited the damage. The Dow fell 103 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues down. Inflation numbers today were par for the course as the market opened lower then bounced around. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed well off of their lows for the session. They remain short term oversold. We're still blown out on the technical indicators as a decline like this renders them moot. Almost got to the 3840 level on the S&P to confirm bear market territory. Although the 20% threshold is arbitrary in reality. It's plain to see that we're in a down market. I'm expecting some kind of decent bounce before option expiration next Friday. Not sure if I'll be able to figure out the timing. Gold fell $30 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates lower. The XAU dropped over 5 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/2. Volume was good to the downside again. Both indexes closed up from the worst levels of the day. I did put in an order for the GDX June calls but canceled it during the session. GDX remains oversold and staying that way. On the daily chart here the pattern is a possible measured move down. The measuring objective is 29. If it does make it down there, I may try the GDX May calls again for the bounce. Both gold and silver have broken their longer term support on the daily charts. How low they go is now a guessing game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have turned down. Could the VIX be signaling that this part of the decline is coming to an end? Hard to say as I haven't been able to figure things out here for a while. As I've said, the major stcok indices are pretty far from their 50 day moving averages and in the past that has led to at least some kind of bounce. The question is when and I would not be surprised to see a decent bounce before expiration. Europe and Asia were down overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Once again the market tried to rally today but failed. The Dow lost 326 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. The inflation data came in a little worse than expected but the market moved higher. However that didn't last and we finished on the lows of the session. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down and that's a negative. Indicators are blown out to the downside and remain that way. Oversold for weeks on the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500. Almost to the 20% down bear market threshold for the S&P. Option premiums remain high for the SPY. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was steady and interest rates slipped. The XAU was off 1/3, while GDX was flat. Volume was a little above average. The gold shares followed the market as they rallied early and then gave it all back. I dumped the GDX May calls that I had for a 70% loss. I had a chance to take the acceptable 50% loss but didn't. This was a trade that never had a chance as it did not show a profit the entire time that I held it. I'd still like to try the gold share calls again but will go out to the June contract if I do. However the market just keeps dropping with no stabaization in sight. Gold itself is not providing the usual safe haven. Interesting times. Mentally I'm disappointed in the latest trade as I did not follow the guidelines to stay away from a big loss. Discipline is one of the keys to the game and if you can't do that you don't have a chance. The VIX was lower today and that market dropped. That doesn't fit. The VIX remains overbought in the short term. Not sure where it is going from here. We'll get more inflation data tomorrow and the odds are it won't be good. We'll see how the market reacts. Seven days to go in the May option cycle. I'll look at things tonight and decide if I want to place another order in GDX. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. Tomorrows another day.

Back and forth was the theme of the day as the Dow fell 85 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted gains on the day though. The S&P remains oversold as do all of the major stock indices. We'll get inflation data tomorrow and see what happens. The averages are pretty far from their 50 day moving averages on a daily basis so some kind of short covering bounce would not be a surprise. Gold lost support at $1850 as it dropped $15. The US dollar was slightly higher while interest rates were steady. The XAU fell 1 1/2 and GDX lost 1/2. Volume was average. GDX blew through my stop without getting filled. I decided to hang on to it this time around but the loss will be larger than it should be like the last trade that didn't get filled unless we see some kind of quick turnaround in the gold shares. Doubt it. Support has been broken and gold is dropping like a stone. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and remains overbought. Not sure which way it'll go tomorrow but with the inflation data due out I'd expect volatility to pick up early. We'll have to wait and see. Europe was up last night while Asia was lower with the exception of China. We'll see how things go on Wednesday.

Look out below as the market continues to fall apart. The Dow fell 653 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 7 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. The final area of support for the major indices gave way and we'll just have to wait and see where support now shows up. The NASDAQ was once again the leader to the downside. Oversold and staying that way for the S&P 500. The 20% lower bear market there is at around 3840. At this point that seems like only a matter of time. The smaller stock indexes have already lost over 20%. Blown out to the downside on many of the indicators and at areas that usually lead to at least bounces if not rallies themselves. But there are no buyers. Inflation data due out on Wednesday and Thursday. Hold on to your seats. Gold got slammed again and the futures dropped thirty bucks. We're at the the support of $1850. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU fell 8 1/2, while GDX sled 2 points. Volume was good to the downside. I did try the GDX May calls again and the order was filled. It's showing a loss already and if the gold shares continue lower with the market this trade will get stopped out tomorrow. I'm considering going out to the June contract for GDX if this trade doesn't work. Silver is at the last area of support and closed below $22. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed higher again and remains short term overbought. It almost closed above the 35 level. Interesting to say the least. There's no reason it can't go higher but stocks are very oversold. Perhaps we'll get some kind of capitulation wash out this week. That's simply a guess because the fundamentals for owning stocks right now are negative. That said, the selling won't go on forever. Below the zero line on the summation index and moving lower. Not often seen but that is what's happening now. Europe and Asia were down as it's a worldwide sell off. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

It was a day of hanging around as we opened lower and stayed that was for much of the session. The Dow fell 98 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way down but the market did finish up from the worst levels of the day. The employment data came in about where expected. At least the market didn't fall off a cliff like yesterday but it's hard to say where we go from here. The S&P did hold on its recent lows but other indexes did not. The S&P 500 is still short term oversold. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates slightly higher. The XAU lost 2 points while GDX shed 1/3 or so. Volume was lighter here. I did place another order for the GDX May calls but it wasn't filled. I'll reconsider this idea over the weekend. Gold up and the gold shares down again doesn't inspire confidence in the calls. However the gold shares are being dragged lower by the overall market. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked above 35 early and then turned around to finish lower on the day. It looks like it wants to continue downwards but as we've seen lately anything goes. Not getting a good feel for where the VIX is going. The overall stock market has been oversold for a few weeks now and I'm not sure this will continue except that we're in a down market. We get some good one day rallies but then the sellers return. There is still two weeks left in the May option cycle so there's certainly time remaining for a decent trade. I'll be looking for something over the weekend. We'll be getting some inflation data next week and that is sure to be a market mover. For now we'll look ahead to checking the charts on Saturday and Sunday to come up with some new ideas. Europe and Asia were both lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market got pummeled today as the Dow fell 1063 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative. The summation index has turned back down. The selling was relentless but the market did finish off of the lows. The NASDAQ led the way lower and dropped 5%. Not sure what to make of what's going on here. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back down. I don't know what to expect tomorrow. We haven't taken out the lows of Monday yet but a repeat of today would do it. A very volatile and unstable atmosphere at the moment. Gold was actually up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was back up and interest rates were higher as well. The gold shares followed the market lower as the XAU lost 5 1/2 while GDX shed 1 1/8. Volume was good on the way down. I did place an order for some GDX May calls again but it wasn't filled and I canceled it. I might try this again tomorrow if we see follow through selling in the markets. However there is also the option of simply heading to the sidelines as the volatility has really ramped up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX has bounced off of its 50 day moving average and was up 6 points and now is back over the 30 level. The short term indicators are pointing back up as the volatility takes over again. Up 900 one day, down a thousand the next is a tough market to make out. However we are below the zero line in the summation index and that remains a pretty big negative. We've got the jobs report tomorrow and it's anybodies guess what the market will do after that. I'll go over the charts tonight and decide if I want to make a trade tomorrow and hold it over the weekend. Europe was lower last night with Asia mixed and still with some markets closed there. We'll close out a crazy week tomorrow.

A huge move higher today as the Dow jumped 932 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. Rates rose as expected from the Fed. Later the Fed chair jawboned the markets higher with his comments. Truth be told the market was so bearish it only had one way to go. Short covering today again to be sure. However rallies that spring out of nowhere are bear market characteristics, even if the S&P 500 hasn't reached that stage yet. Some of our technical indicators were at bear market extreme levels so moving higher is not a surprise. Maybe we can make it back up to one of the down trend lines for the S&P and then try the SPY puts before the May option cycle ends. The short term indicators for the S&P have now turned back up. The NASDAQ barely led the way higher today but it's still a plus. We'll remain patient for now. Gold advanced $14 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained almost 3 points, while GDX was up over 2/3. Volume was good. I canceled my open order for the GDX May calls as I've missed this opportunity for now. The short term indicators for GDX have also turned back up. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as I took the loss on the GDX call trade Monday when it blew through my stop limit order, while at the same time I had another buy order for the GDX calls that wasn't filled even though it hit the trade price. Needless to say that trade would have already more than doubled. But we're at the mercy of the computers now in the game and sometimes things just don't work out. The VIX dropped today and it's looking like we're heading back down to the support line for this indicator. That would coincide with a rally in stocks. Ideally we'd get to the support line for the VIX at the same time we reach the down trend resistance line for the S&P. That would be the set up for the SPY puts. The markets rarely cooperate. Next up is Fridays employment report. Europe and Asia were lower, with parts of Asia still on holiday. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Waiting on the Fed as the Dow was up 67 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The S&P 500 led the way today but is still short term oversold. Not sure what the reaction will be tomorrow as it is already a foregone conclusion that rates will go up 1/2 a point. We'll just wait and see what the market has in store for us. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a touch lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares have out performed the precious metal for the past couple of sessions. GDX is still short term oversold. I did place another order for the GDX May calls and I'm leaving it out there. My hope is we get some selling after the Fed and the order gets filled. My feeling is that the decline in the gold shares is over. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and the short term indicators have rolled over. It appears to be saying that higher stock prices are on the way. Some of our indicators for the market are so blown out to the downside that a rally here would be no surprise. However it must also be said that in down markets things stay oversold longer than you think. I guess we'll see what the market reaction to the Fed is tomorrow and go from there. What was open in Asia was mixed, while Europe was higher. It's a waiting game for now.

Buyers showed up today in the final hour and the Dow rose 84 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading lower. We were down for much of the session until the last hour reprieve. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The S&P 500 is hanging in there after breaking support. It remains short term oversold. We are overdue for something more than just a bounce. The bearishness is so thick you can cut it with a knife. Perhaps we'll get some kind of relief rally after the Fed on Wednesday. Most of the techncial indicators for the overall market are blown out to the downside. This condition cannot continue indefinately. Option premiums for the SPY remain overpriced due to the volatility. Gold got smashed today as the futures dropped about fifty bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off 2 1/8, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was good. The gold shares did finish up from their lows of the session and held up rather well considering the drop in gold itself. The early drop in GDX blew through my stop limit loss order so I simply bailed out at the market. This caused the loss to be more than the limit price as the trade lost 75%. Not a lot of money involved here but the percentage loss was more than the acceptable limit. But that can happen in fast markets. I did place another order for the GDX calls at a lower strike price but canceled it a few hours later. I'm debating whether I want to try this again or not. Oversold to be sure for the gold shares but gold is down to the support at around $1850 and buyers have disappeared. Silver bounced near the support at $22 today. I'll consider what to do overnight. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX reversed lower today and perhaps is signaling that the decline is over. Perhaps being the key word there. Still short term overbought for the VIX but it is up in the area where it has turned back down recently. Everybody knows the Fed is raising rates on Wednesday so maybe it is already in the markets and the selling will subside. There's still plenty of time left in the May option cycle. Asia had a partial holiday for May day but what was open was lower along with Europe with the exception of the FTSE. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Stocks took a beating today to end the month of April. The Dow fell 939 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower again. Oversold and staying that way for stocks and that is never a good sign. The S&P 500 remains oversold and closed at a new low. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down. It appears that the support will not hold up. Not sure how far we'll go down from here. The employment cost index was higher than expected. The Fed will be raising rates next week. Stocks are being sold regardless of the earnings news. The bearish atmosphere is thick. Yesterdays rally is forgotten. Will anything change next week? The S&P closed below the 4200-4150 zone so it could be a case of look out below. Gold was up six bucks on the futures but was much higher during the session. The US dollar was lower but interest rates continue to rise. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. My GDX May calls are just about to be stopped out for a loss. Will probably happen Monday morning unless the gold shares rally out of nowhere. I'm debating whether to try this trade again next week or simply head to the sidelines. GDX remains short term oversold and closed below the 36 level which I had pegged as the point it had to hold on a medium term basis. The fundamentals don't look good for gold at the moment either. However the US dollar is very overbought and has moved up in a straight line. Any break there would be viewed as a positive for the precious metal. However if the market continues to collapse it will take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved right back up and remains overbought. This isn't the usual behavior for the VIX and I'm having trouble figuring it out. It is above 33 again and it usually doesn't stay at a high level for long. That said, if the market does continue lower from here the VIX could easily reach 40 or above. The summation index is moving lower and we are below the zero line. The buying we've seen lately hasn't held up. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. Europe and Asia were higher to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A rally springs out of nowhere as the Dow climbed 614 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but another day like today could get it moving sideways. The market is trying to hold the support here and doing its best. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. Our call/put ratio is showing too much bearishness. GDP came in negative and below expectations. Stagflation is in the news again. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus. Perhaps we can get some kind of rally going here with all the bears out there. However even if the market holds up here I do think that eventually the support at the 4200-4150 level for the S&P will be broken. Todays big rally out of the blue is classic down market price action. Maybe the rest of the May option cycle can bring us back to the down trend line and set up the SPY puts. Wishful thinking most likely. Gold was up $8 on the futures as it had a turnaround during the session. The US dollar continues to rise while interest rates were a bit higher. The XAU gained 2 7/8, with GDX up 3/4. Volume was average. My GDX May calls are still losers as they are too far out of the money. The poor entry is the doom of this trade most likely. However if we get another day like today for GDX tomorrow, we'll be back to the 36 level and perhaps this idea will have a chance. That is also wishful thinking. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today but remains short term overbought. I'm still not getting a good idea of what is going on with this indicator at the moment. This still is an important week for stocks. So far we've held the support for most of the major averages. Unless there is a dramatic downside slump tomorrow the support will hold for now. My view is that the support will be taken out eventually. However with all the bears out there now perhaps some kind of rally will have them retreat. Maybe if we get some more short covering like we saw today the negative mood will abate. We'll see if we get any reaction to the employment cost index tomorrow. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

We bounced around today as the market is trying to make up its mind what to do here. The Dow gained 61 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down and has passed through the zero line. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and at the last line of support. Ditto for the other major stock averages. Nothing was settled today as for where we go from here. Perhaps tomorrows GDP data will decide the markets near term fate. We're due for some kind of bounce but with the summation index moving lower the trend is down. Gold lost $15 on the futures and is now clearly below the $1900 level. The US dollar is still moving up and today interest rates joined it. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on pretty light volume. My GDX May calls are solid losers and a close this week around the 36 level doesn't seem to be in the cards unless we see a dramatic turnaround in the next two sessions. At the rate it's going the trade will be stopped out tomorrow. GDX also remains short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is short term overbought. I'm not sure where it goes from here. Normally I'd say it will drop from here and stocks will move higher but these are not normal times so it seems. The big tech earnings came in mixed today. More are due out tomorrow. There's also employment cost data out on Friday. So there will be excuses for the markets to move. The question is whether the support will hold or not. We'll know soon. Asia was lower with the exception of China while Europe was higher. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Stocks sank today as the Dow fell 809 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. We'll take our cues from there. Yesterday I thought that we would hold in here at the near term support for the S&P. There's still a chance as we have closed today right on it but the tone of things is pretty negative. The S&P is short term oversold and staying that way. Perhaps the big tech earnings can save things here but it seems only a matter of time before we break down. The summation index appears to be heading through the zero line again unless we see a dramatic short term turnaround. At this point I'm not counting on that. The NASDAQ once again led the way lower. Tomorrow will probably tell the story of where we are going from here. Gold was up six bucks on the futures as it tries to hold the $1900 level. The US dollar continued higher and interest rates continued lower. The XAU dropped 3 7/8, while GDX slid 3/4. Volume was average. The gold shares are following the market lower. My GDX May calls are showing a loss. I may just take the loss here and try a lower strike price if we keep dropping. GDX is now short term oversold and this is where it technically makes sense to try the calls. But if the market does collapse as the summation index goes through the zero line, the gold shares will probably head much lower too. Interesting times to be sure. I am still a believer in the gold shares though. If they finish the week around the 36 level for GDX the weekly chart pattern for higher prices will still be in place. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped and is now above 33 as volatilty takes center stage. Short term overbought as well. I'm not sure what to expect here. The weekly indicators here still have room to go higher. Once again tomorrow will be important as we are on the brink of breaking the near term support for many of the major stock indices. Tonights after the bell big tech earnings will give us a clue. With the summation index moving lower it isn't a good sign for the bulls. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe generally down in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. The most watched index gained 238 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still heading lower. The NASDAQ led the way today and that is a plus for the bulls. A lot of big tech earnings are out this week and perhaps they can save the market from a complete break down. I'm getting the feeling after today that they will. The major stock indexes have held up where they need to for now. The S&P 500 is still short term oversold but today could be the beginning of a move back up to the down trend line. We'll know more by the end of the week. However if we turn back down this week and go through the zero line on the summation index it will get ugly. That's my view on where we stand at the moment. It is an important week for stocks. Gold got clobbered as the futures fell $35 and dipped below $1900. The US dollar was higher and interest rates fell. The XAU lost 5 1/3, while GDX shed 1 1/4. Volume was good again to the downside. My open order for the GDX May calls was filled. I thought about adjusting it last night as gold was weak on the futures but didn't as I did not think we'd see the losses in the gold shares that we saw today. The entry on the trade was lousy. GDX slid right through the weekly down trend line at 36 and was off better than two points during the session. My GDX call trade is showing a small loss. Plenty of time left for this trade but it could be the case of probably getting out sooner rather than later. The stop loss order is in. The gold shares are short term oversold here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX reversed course today as well but remains above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The short term indicators are trying to roll over though. I don't have a good feel for the VIX here. Big tech will probably be the key for the market this week. Most of the important companies have their earnings reports in the coming days. We'll also a look at 1st quarter GDP on Thursday. Today was promising for the bulls but we're not out of the woods yet. Europe and Asia were lower overnight as selling took over around the globe. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

The market got clobbered today as the realization of the end of easy money takes hold. The Dow fell 981 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower and once again headed to the zero line. If we don't turn around soon things will get worse. We just went through the zero line on the summation index in January. But as always the market will go where it wants. Oversold and staying that way for the S&P 500. That's never a good sign as the bears are in charge. The Dow led the way down percentagewise today but not by much. Buyers have vanished. There's nothing to think that Monday will be any different. Gold was off $13 on the futures. The US dollar was higher while interest rates remained steady. The XAU fell 5 1/3 and GDX was off 1 1/8. Volume was good. I did place an order for the GDX May calls but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it out there for now. Support for GDX on the weekly chart comes in at the downtrend line that was broken recently. This is at approximately the 36 level. GDX is getting oversold on the indicators for the short term. However if the market goes into freefall and through the zero line on the summation index it will probably take the gold shares with it. In that case this trade won't work. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a big spike and closed above its 50 day moving average. It is almost completely overbought on the short term indicators. Another day like today would certainly do it. The small stocks here are heading to their recent levels of support. If things don't hold up here soon it will get ugly. I suppose that the fact that we've started to drop before even getting back to the down trend line in the S&P isn't a good sign. The 70 point S&P 500 rally out of nowhere on Tuesday was a classic down market sign. There will be plenty to digest over the weekend. Europe sank and Asia was generally lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We had a dramatic one day reversal to the downside today as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 368 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving sideways. The S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators rolled back over and are already in oversold territory. There were more indications from the Fed that the easy money policy is over, which we already knew. Interest rates are going up and liquidity is being pulled back. It's hard for stocks to go up when there isn't any money. We'll see how long this lasts but we continue to be negative on the medium term outlook for now. Gold finished slightly negative on the futures and came back from the worst levels of the day. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The gold shares got slammed, with the XAU losing 8 3/4 and GDX shedding 2 points. Volume was good to the downside and the up trend line for GDX was broken. Not completely oversold for GDX but I will most likely put in an order for the May calls overnight. However the fundamentals for gold are pretty negative at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX turned around and was higher today. The picture there has changed as the short term indicators have turned back up. The VIX did not make it back to the support line this time around. Not sure where it goes from here. Once again the NASDAQ led the way lower today and that is not a plus. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was a mixed bag today as the Dow gained 249 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The S&P 500 was slightly lower but the NASDAQ fell by more than 1%. The S&P remains below its 200 day moving average. Earnings are now in the drivers seat for market action either way. We do get some more Fedspeak tomorrow though. The technical indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to move higher. We're still hoping for a rise to the down trend line there in order to get short. Gold ended the day flat on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX made it back to mid-range but not completely oversold. This has been the pattern for the past two months. The option premiums are high with the extra week in the May cycle or perhaps I'd give the GDX May call trade a try right here. Buyers for the gold shares continue to show up. However I've decided to hold off for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today as it approaches the support trend line in effect since last year. The short term indicators are declining which implies higher stock prices going forward. We'll have some decisions to make if the VIX reaches the support line. Asia was mixed and Europe higher last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A rally springs up out of nowhere as the Dow soared 499 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now trying to move sideways. Some short covering today to be sure as there was no news to speak of to cause buyers to suddenly appear. The S&P 500 is still oversold but not extremely. Perhaps this is the beginning of a move that takes us back to the down trend line that has been in effect since January. That is the set up that we're looking for. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. We'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow. Gold slumped $35 on the futures. The US dollar continued higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 4 1/4, while GDX slid 1 1/8. Volume was average. The gold shares need a rest. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over. Hopefully we'll get to a fully oversold condition which would set us up for the GDX May calls. GDX now sits on an up trend line that began in February. Another day like today will break that line. We'll keep an eye on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but failed to close below its 200 day moving average. Trend line support remains in place. The VIX also remains above the 20 level. Not getting a good feel for what is going on there. Today we had a good across the board rally for the major stock indices. How long it lasts is another question. Volume hasn't been all that great lately. So we'll see where it goes. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the after hours headlines.

The market tried to rally today but failed again as the Dow fell 39 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trending lower. My thinking is that we are due for some kind of bounce or rally here but the market will go where it wants. Plenty of bearishness around so it would not be a surprise to start heading the other way. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold along with the other major stock averages. Not a lot of economic data out this week but we will have some Fedspeak. 1st quarter earnings get started as well. On the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold rose $7 on the futures today. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX were both flat on light volume. GDX remains short term overbought. Waiting on a pullback here in order to try the May calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators have rolled over. It appears to be signaling higher stock prices in the near term. The trendline support at 19 is still in place. If we could get back to that line on the VIX along with a light volume rally in the S&P to around the 4600 level, it would set us up for the May SPY puts. For now we'll have to be patient. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

We ended the week on a sour note as the Dow fell 113 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to turn back up but hasn't been successful. Once again the NASDAQ led the way down and that's a negative. The S&P 500 is short term oversold and back below its 50 day moving average. Earnings season is beginning and perhaps that can get things going positive again. However with the Fed raising rates and cutting off the easy money it could be tough sledding for stocks going forward. The down trend line for the S&P 500 comes in at 4600. If we can somehow make it back to there the SPY May puts would be the play. There's an extra week in the May option cycle so premiums will be higher than usual. Gold dropped almost $10 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume. There seems to always be buyers for the gold shares lately. GDX remains both short and medium term overbought. Hoping for some type of pullback in order to try the calls there again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and bounced off of its 200 day moving average. It looks like it could go either way from here. For now we are going to stick with our longer term market view that prices will be going lower. Inflation does not appear to be going away and rates are on the rise. The Russia/Ukraine conflict drags on. We'll keep our eyes on the potential inverse head and shoulders patterns that appear on many of the major stock indice charts. But I still hold on to the view that they won't pan out. We'll have a long weekend to try and figure out what to do next. But with higher option premiums we'll probably remain on the sidelines next week. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. It's Thursday afternoon and time for a rest.

The bounce that we've been waiting for finally showed up as the Dow gained 344 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. This should turn the summation index sideways. The NASDAQ was the leader to the upside and that's a plus. The inflation data was high but the market shrugged it off. That's another positive. The S&P 500 is short term oversold. I'm expecting more upside in the near term. Option expiration is tomorrow with the Friday holiday. Gold was up five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 3 2/3, while GDX was up 7/8. Volume was average. The gold shares remain short term overbought and are now above the upper Bollinger band. There has been however no sustained selling here and that bodes well for the bulls. I'm looking to purchase the GDX May calls when we see some gold share weakness. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are rolling over. It will be interesting to see what happens if we make it back down to the support line here that has been in effect since November. That could again set things up for the SPY puts. Or not. We have plenty of potential head and shoulders reversal patterns on the major stock indices. They would imply a trip back to new all time highs. I said before that I don't think these patterns will prove to be valid. Time will tell on that but I'm still a believer in lower stock prices for the medium term. We'll let the market show us the way. Europe and Asia were generally higher. We'll close out the shortened week tomorrow.

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the market opend higher and closed lower. The Dow lost 87 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving down. The inflation data came in high as expected. The stock and bond markets rallied at the open. However stocks lost their momentum and rolled over for the rest of the day. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold. Only 2 days left in this weeks trading. I'd expect some kind of bounce before the end of the week but who knows? I'm on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold gained around $25 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates fell. The XAU rose about 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/3. The gold shares did drop from their best levels of the day. Volume was average. I adjusted the stop on my GDX April call order and it eventually got filled. It was a lousy exit to this trade that could have been worth more had I managed it better. I guess I just got greedy. The gain was 160%. The gold shares remain short term overbought but I still like the calls again if we ever do get oversold. Mentally I'm disappointed that the GDX trade didn't go as good as it could have. I should have locked in a bigger profit. But as always that trade is done and it doesn't matter now. You've got to keep moving forward in the game. The VIX was a little lower today and is short term overbought. It too says some kind of bounce is imminent. That doesn't mean it will happen though. The market tried to rally today and failed. We'll see how it reacts to the producer prices tomorrow. Europe and Asia were lower overnight with the exception of China and Hong Kong. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Lower to begin the week as the Dow lost 413 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is now heading lower. We opened with a gap down and never recovered. Probably selling in front of what promises to be a high consumer inflation number tomorrow. Producer prices are due out on Wednesday. The S&P 500 is short term oversold and closed below its 50 day moving average. The NASDAQ led the way down today and that is not a plus. Anything goes tomorrow including a good drop or a short covering rally. Only 3 trading days left in the week. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures but finished well off of the highs for the session. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off 7/8 and GDX fell 1/4. Volume was light. It was a one day reversal to the downside for the gold shares as they opened higher and closed lower. Gold up and the gold shares down is a negative for the bulls. I'm still in the GDX April call trade which is still positive for now. GDX is touching the upper Bollinger band and short term overbought. The daily chart is also forming a rising wedge pattern that is usually bearish. I should probably already be out of this trade but I now may hold it until Wednesdays producer prices. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX turned around and moved higher. The short term indicators are getting overbought. On Friday the VIX looked like it was implying more buying for stocks but did a complete turnaround. The market goes where it wants. Who knows, maybe the CPI won't be so bad. But I doubt it. Asia was lower and Europe finished slightly down. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Back and forth was the name of the game today and the Dow ended with a gain of 137 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading sideways. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were lower, with the NASDAQ leading the way. The S&P is hanging around its 200 day moving average and is getting short term oversold. Waiting on the inflation data due out on Tuesday. Option expiration week is on tap and it's also a short week with a Friday holiday. I'm not exactly sure where the S&P goes from here. On the sidelines for now with regards to the SPY. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed after being higher earlier. Interest rates rose. The XAU was up 3 3/4, while GDX added 7/8. Volume remains light here. GDX is right at the breakout level but we'll need to see a pick up in volume to get through there. Getting short term overbought for GDX as well. My thinking is that the gold shares will break out to the upside on Tuesdays inflation report. My GDX April calls are in the black. The risk of holding this trade increases with each passing day as time is running out on the April options. However I'm inclined to hold this trade until Tuesday at this point. I'll ponder what to do over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today but the overall market was down. Hanging around the 200 day moving average here and the short term indicators appear to be rolling back down. This imples higher prices coming up for stocks. We'll see. I'll be going over the charts the next couple of days and getting ready for expiration week. The market is still at the mercy of headline risk. Europe and Asia had gains to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A reprieve from the recent selling today as the Dow gained 87 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is now tracking sideways. After selling for the early part of the session, stocks made it back to plus territory. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up here. The TRAN has stopped its freefall and there appears to be a bullish hammer now on the daily candlestick chart there. There's also a small hammer on the NASDAQ daily chart but it was the underperformer today. It looks like most of the major averages are trying to hang in at their 50 day moving averages. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates remained steady. The XAU was up 1 7/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume is still light for the gold shares as there is not much interest here still. My GDX April calls gained some ground. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up. If that is successful then the GDX call trade will be successful as well. I'm trying to hold this trade until Tuesdays inflation data is out. Only 5 days left in the April option cycle as next Friday is a holiday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the daily candlestick chart here is implying a lower VIX in the coming sessions. The short term technical indicators are mid-range. Option expiration week is almost upon us and right now the market has the feeling that the positive bias will show up. But that's just a guess and hasn't happened yet. We're still at the mercy of headline risk as the ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict is not going away. My thinking on the GDX trade is that inflation will be high and money will flow into gold. Of course the technical set up there is more important and I'm hoping for a break out above 40 before option expiration. We'll see. Asia and Europe were both lower last night. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

More selling today as the Dow fell 144 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index has stopped moving up and turned lower today. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is not a plus for the bulls. The TRAN continues to drop straight down. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned down and are moving lower. There's still room to go before getting short term oversold. The Fed is scaling back the easy money and the market needs time to get used to that. Liquidity is the issue. You may start to hear about a potential head and shoulders bottom being put in on the S&P daily chart. I don't think it will be valid if it does occur. Gold finished flat on the futures after moving both up and down. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were mixed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves lower on light volume. The short term technical indicators for GDX are now mid-range. I did decide to place an order for the GDX April calls today. It was filled when the gold shares dropped after the release of the Fed minutes. This is a risky ordeal with only 6 days left in the April option cycle. It is showing a small profit. Ideally I'd like to hold this trade until the inflation data due out next Tuesday. However it may get stopped out before then or I may simply decide to sell. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher but closed down from its best levels of the session. The short term indicators here are pointing up. Not sure where it goes from here but the trendline from last November is now still in place. If it holds I'm pretty sure that we won't be going back up to set new all time highs in the stock market anytime soon. But time will tell on that. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

We moved lower today as the Dow fell 280 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up but another day like today would change that. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is a plus for the bears this time around. Todays price action turns the short term indicators down for the S&P 500 but we're still more overbought than oversold. Not exactly sure where we're headed from here. The Fed minutes tomorrow may provide a reason to buy or sell. I'm on the sidelines with regards to the S&P for now. The TRAN continues to drop hard. Gold was off about ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was up and broke out to a new recent high. Interest rates moved higher yet again. The XAU lost 4 1/8, while GDX dropped 7/8. Volume was average. The short term technical indicators for GDX have rolled over and they have room to go lower. However any recent selling in GDX has been met with buyers and I'm wondering if that will be the case this time around. I may try the GDX April calls here but I'll have to go over things tonight before I decide. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped back above 20 and its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators are beginning to rise but remain oversold. After breaking the trendline from November yesterday the VIX has moved right back above it. So that was a possible false break. We'll know if it was in the coming sessions if we remain above the line. That would spell trouble for stocks with more selling. But we'll have to wait and see what happens. It is a caution sign to be sure. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Positive to begin the trading week as the Dow gained 103 points on average volume. The advance /declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ had a good day and led the way higher. That's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a decent day as well and remains short term overbought. Not a lot of data out this week. We'll get the Fed minutes on Wednesday and that seems to be most interesting report at this point. We'll see if today was the beginning of another leg up as the week goes on. Gold added $10 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were generally steady. The XAU was off almost a point, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light. I'm still interested in the GDX calls but it remains short term overbought. Any selling in the gold shares does attract buying though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and broke the support line that had been in effect since November. This indicator is saying higher prices are coming despite the extended short term oversold condition in the VIX. If this is true perhaps we are going back to set new all time highs. It has been quite a turnaround for the stock market and right now the technical indicators are saying we're going higher. Europe and Asia were higher to start the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Back and forth to close out the trading week as the Dow gained 139 points on average volume. The advance/declines wwere positive. The summation index is moving higher. The jobs report came in where expected with buyers and sellers taking turns with the price action. The Dow was the leader to the upside. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but perhaps a temporary bottom is in place on the daily charts. The TRAN got clobbered today and that may be something to keep an eye on. The NASDAQ remains below its 200 day moving average. Gold fell $25 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The gold shares rallied with the XAU up 4 3/4, while GDX added 1 1/8. Volume is still light here but you cannot argue with price. Gold down and the gold shares up is bullish. Short term overbought for the gold shares. Any selling here though is immediately met with buyers. Is there still a chance to try the GDX April calls with less than 2 weeks to go in the April option cycle? Perhaps but being overbought presents some risk to be sure. Also if a cease-fire were to occur in the Russia/Ukraine conflict there would most likely be a rush to the exits. I'll consider the possibilities over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is back below 20. Still short term oversold and the up trend line from November remains intact for now. Not sure where the VIX is headed from here and I'm not about to guess. I'll go over the charts this weekend and try to come up with some sort of game plan for next week. My thinking is that the market will move up from here in the short term but who knows? Some economic data due out next week but nothing on inflation. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sellers showed up today in the final hour as the Dow fell 550 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues to move up. The market was trending lower for much of the day and then fell apart with an hour to go. No index led the way as the big 3 were all down 1 1/2%. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over but they're still overbought. Perhaps it was just an end of the month gyration. I don't think that was are about to start a huge move lower but my ideas haven't exactly panned out lately. As I have already stated, things can't go straight up indefinately. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates remained steady. The XAU was off 1 1/4, while GDX shed about 1/3. Volume was light. Volume has tapered off for the gold shares lately. I'm not sure what to make of that. The Bollinger bands are contracting on the daily chart which implies a big move coming up. As always, which way is the question. Overbought on the indicators for GDX but there's still room for them to move higher. I suppose that if it gets back to the up trend line at 37 I'll give the calls a try. Not exactly sure if that is the right idea though. Losing trades generally impede confidence. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and that fits a down market. The up trend line from November has proven to be still intact. The short term indicators here have turned up but not decidedly so. However if the trend line remains in place it could give the bears some courage. Looking back the correct strategy this week would have been to wait until that line for the VIX was touched and then purchasing the SPY April puts. However my focus was on other indicators and you have to go with what you are doing at the time. But it's always a good idea to look at all the angles. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the employment report tomorrow.

A pause in the rally today as the Dow fell 65 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. We had a final hour rally to bring things back up. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation data due out tomorrow. The Ukraine/Russia conflict has taken a back seat for now. Gold was up around $20 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX gained 3/8. Volume was light. I'd still like to get some GDX April calls because it looks like it is about to break out to the upside. Getting short term overbought but not there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX held steady at the up trend line from November. It remains extremely oversold. I'm looking for volatility to pick up and soon. Perhaps the inflation data tomorrow or the jobs report on Friday will get things moving here. The market has gone up in a straight line for about two weeks. This will not go on forever. Asia was higher ans Europe lower last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Another day another gain as the Dow climbed 338 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. I was stopped out of the SPY April puts that I bought at the close yesterday for a 40% loss. That's two losses in two days as my thesis about the market was wrong. I was expecting the rally to stop at previous resistance points and it has proven that it won't. We may even be headed for new all time highs soon at this rate. Overbought and staying that way for the S&P 500. The NASDAQ was again the leader to the upside as the bulls are clearly in charge. It appears that we missed a good entry point for long term money a couple of weeks ago. We should have just taken our cues from the summation index as it pointed the way down and now the way up. I'm heading back to the sidelines with respect to the SPY for now. Gold fell another $20 on the futures but came up from the lows of the session.. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares had a huge gap down at the open and made it all the way back and then some. Any selling in the gold shares is being met with buyers. It was a mistake to not keep a closer eye on things here while attempting the SPY trades. Today looks like it was the ideal entry point for the GDX calls but my mind was focussed elsewhere. Even though one of the current ideas was to get the GDX calls ahead of Thursdays inflation data. It's probably best to take a step back here for a moment. Mentally the losses don't bother me too much but it may be time for a reassessment of trading tactics. The last couple of trade set ups had losses right after losses and that is a recipe for disastor. The VIX is now claerly below 20 and remaining short term oversold. Overdue for some kind of bounce up here with some volatility but I've already had my attempts and they were met with failure. We are now on a line of support for the VIX that started in November. A break here will further support the bulls. The market seems like it just wants to go higher as the technical indicators remain overbought. Europe and Asia were up as money finds a home in stocks around the globe. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Stocks continued to the upside to begin the week as the Dow gained 94 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. During the session I purchased some of the SPY April puts. The S&P 500 was at the last Fibanocci retracement level and I wanted to give this idea a shot. The S&P blew through the resistance. It does remain short term overbought. At this point the market seems to be saying that we are going even higher from the recent lows. At the close I decided to simply sell those SPY puts for a small loss and roll into the puts at a closer to the money strike price so that's what I did. The loss on the first position was 15%. The current SPY April put position that I bought at the close is showing a small loss. I still believe that with the market going up in a straight line for two weeks it is due for a pullback or pause. I could be wrong. Gold shed $30 on the futures today to begin the week. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU lost 4 2/3, while GDX was off a point. Volume was light. I'm still considering the GDX April calls ahead of Thursdays inflation data but I really like to take things one trade at a time. The short term technical indicators for GDX are still mid-range and the up trend line comes in at 36. If we get to 36 in the next couple of days I will probably give this idea a try. Mentally I'm feeling tired, not enough sleep. The VIX dropped both below the important 20 level and below its 200 day moving average. This is another reason why I wanted to trade the SPY puts. Volatility should pick up. The VIX is also very oversold on a daily basis and has been oversold for 2 weeks. This will not continue indefinately. I'm not saying that another leg down for stocks is about to happen but I do expect some near term weakness at least. We'll see. Europe was generally higher and Asia mixed to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We closed the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 153 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues higher. It was a back and forth session with the market trying to make up its mind. We are are the cusp of the final resistance of 4550 for the S&P 500. It remains short term overbought. I did place an open order overnight for the SPY April puts but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it out there but may have to adjust it on Monday morning. It was another positive week for stocks and that may spell doom for trying the puts here. However the volume wasn't all that great today and perhaps we're running out of steam. The NASDAQ was lower. I'll reconsider things over the weekend. Gold was off $8 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates continued their climb. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume. I still like the calls here and might try them ahead of some inflation data that is due out this Thursday. More overbought than oversold for GDX but not extremely so. The drawback is the anemic volume today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and is almost at the important 20 level. Another day like today on Monday will get it there. Short term oversold and has been for a few days. Just shy of its 200 day moving average. Technically things have set up and are pointing to buying some SPY April puts now. Unless Monday turns into a huge rally to the upside on good volume, the market should at least stall here at the final Fibanocci retracement of the decline. There's also the possibility that the decline resumes from here as well. Or the rally will continue and we've seen the lows for a while. So Monday will be a key and we'll be paying attention. Plenty of work to do over the weekend while going over the charts. Perhaps we'll find something there that will change our prognosis. Asia was lower and Europe higher to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 349 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Short term overbought and staying that way for the major stock indices. If we make it through 4550 on the S&P 500 I'll have to rethink my thesis of what's going on here. Hasn't happened yet but money is finding a home in stocks for the past couple of weeks. Still plenty of bears out there so perhaps we are going back to the old highs. Gold was up $25 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. A move higher in gold and the gold shares going nowhere is a negative. Not getting any kind of signal from the GDX short term technical indicators. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX continued lower and is still short term oversold. We are almost at the 20 level which is about where the 200 day moving average lies as well. A move to 20 on the VIX is where it makes technical sense to try the SPY April puts. If the VIX continues lower from there you would exit the trade for a loss because it will not work. If the VIX hits 20 and the S&P 500 also hits 4550 that is the ideal set up. Maybe we will get there tomorrow, who knows? That is what we will be looking for. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Some overdue selling today as the Dow fell 449 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. The big 3 of the major averages, the Dow, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ all had around the same percentage loss. That says that this isn't the beginning of a huge decline most likely. The market is digesting the recent stellar gains and then it will decide where to go from that. We're still short term overbought on some of the indicators for the S&P. 4550 remains the level to watch in order to try the SPY April puts. Volume was relatively lighter than it has been so there was no rush for the exits. Gold found a bid and the futures rose $25. The US dollar was slightly higher while interest rates turned lower. The XAU was up over 3 and GDX gained about a point. Volume was lighter than it's been lately. The short term technical indicators have turned up from their mid-range position. So perhaps we are going to miss the next leg up here. We'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only slightly higher today and remains short term oversold. Not sure what that means going forward. I'm still hoping that the VIX makes it to the 20 level in order to try those SPY April puts. The market rarely cooperates. We remain patient for now. Plenty of time left in the April option cycle. It looks like we'll let this week go by and take it from there. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 254 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Short term overbought for the major stcok indices and staying that way. The line in the sand for this rally on the S&P 500 is the 4550 level. If we make it past there then my idea that we will be seeing lower prices as the year progresses will be out the window. 4550 is the final Fibanocci retracement level from the recent decline. Make it through that level and there is no ceiling on the rally. This weeks price action is important and right now it's saying that we're going higher. Gold was down $8 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed after being higher early on. Interest rates continue to climb and some of the bond sell off money is heading into stocks. The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light here for a change. Still mid-range on the short term technical indicators for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lwoer and that fits with a gain for stocks today. Short term oversold for the VIX and getting closer to the 20 level. If we get down to 20 I'd like to try the SPY April puts. We'll see. It's been quite a rally in the past 6 days however the small stocks have not even made it back to their 200 day moving averages. I still think some kind of pause is due or perhaps a trip back to the down trend lines that were broken. Those kind of things would make sense but the market as always goes where it wants. Asia and Europe had gains in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye out for the ongoing headlines.

A pause in the rally today as the Dow fell 202 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving higher. We are now short term overbought for the major averages so some type of stall or corrective price action should occur. The Dow was the worst performer today. The S&P 500 is still hugging its upper Bollinger band. How the week finishes will tell us a lot about where we are going. But is't only Monday. Not a lot of economic data due out this week. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was up along with interest rates. The XAU gained 3 1/3, while GDX was up almost a point. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are mid-range but it does look like it wants to turn up here. I'd still like to wait and see if GDX can get back to its up trend line before attempting the calls again. Not sure if that's the proper strategy but that's what I'm going with for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower and remains short term oversold. I'm looking for a decline at some point this week for stocks. I don't think that it will be the beginning of anything sustainable though. The huge move up in the McClellan oscillator last week has the look of an initiation move. That doesn't mean that we go on to new all time highs but it does take a big decline off the table for now. We'll just have to wait and see where things go from here. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The rally continues as the Dow added 274 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ is leading the way higher and that is a good thing for the bulls. We are right back to the resistance of 4470 at the 200 day moving average on the S&P 500. Short term overbought on some of the indicators for the S&P so I do believe that the rally will stall here. It was a very positive week for stocks but we'll have to see if we get any follow through going forward. The down trend lines have been broken to the upside on many of the major stock averages. But after moving straight up for 4 days some kind of pause is due. I'm still a believer in lower prices later this year before the selling is complete. I could be wrong. Gold lost $25 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates slipped. The XAU was off 1 1/8, while GDX slid 3/8. Volume was good. I'm still a fan of the gold shares and will look to try the calls again on GDX if it gets back to the up trend line at 35. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. I had expected some selling from yesterdays VIX reading but it did not occur. If the VIX can make it back to 20, I'll consider the SPY puts. However we are rolling into the April option cycle next week and the premiums are inflated. Perhaps some sideways to higher stock prices will make things more attractive. It was a good week for stocks but one must remember that in down trends rallies spring out of nowhere. If we continue higher next week I might have to change my view. But for now I would not be a longer term buyer yet. Asia and Europe were slightly higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Higher we climb as the Dow gained 417 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive again. The summation index is now moving up. Sellers are gone for now as we are breaking down trend lines in the major averages that have been in effect since the beginning of January. The NASDAQ continues to be the leader and that is a plus. The next area of resistance that we're looking at are the upper Bollinger bands and the 200 day moving average for the S&P. These come in around the 4470 level. The short term indicators here are getting short term overbought but are not there yet. I'm not looking for new all time highs anytime soon. I'm guessing a sideways channel until we go lower later this year. But we'll see. Gold rallied with the futures up around $30. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 3 7/8, while GDX gained 2/3. Volume was average. I still like the gold shares going forward and am looking at the April and May calls for GDX. GDX has an up trend line at the 35 level. If we can somehow make it back to there with an oversold technical condition, that would be the time to try the calls. Mentally I'm doing OK despite getting stopped out on those GDX calls yesterday only to see them rally today. At least the idea was correct in theory but we're here to make money. The VIX closed below its 50 day moving average and is touching the lower Bollinger band. It is also short term oversold on some of the technical indicators. This seems to imply that volatility is about to pick up again and we should see some selling. Option expiration tomorrow and anything goes there. We did see some of the positive expiration week bias this time around. Asia was up and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Two days in a row to the upside as the Dow climbed 518 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up but still stuck in a sideways channel. The Fed raised rates but it was already a known fact so it did not rile the markets. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. It looks like the next stop is the down trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of January. The S&P is also below both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. We'll see if things can break through to end the recent decline. The NASDAQ led the way higher again and that's a plus. I get the feeling that we're going to break the recent down trend lines for the major stock indices but we will have to wait and see. I could change my mind once we get there depending on the technicals. Gold was about flat after dropping early on the futures. The US dollar was lower despite the Fed. Interest rates creeped up. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other after dropping lower during the session. I was stopped out of my GDX March call trade for a 50% loss. After getting stopped out GDX turned around and those same calls are right back to what I paid for them. That is the problem with stops. It does save losses from getting bigger when things continue to go against the trade. But it also doesn't always let the trade work the way you thought it would at times. I still like the gold share calls and will try them again in the April option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated. 2 losing trades this week although not a lot of money was involved. But it does drain your confidence. The VIX was lower and has reached its 50 day moving average. Getting short term oversold as well. This indicator is perhaps saying that the rally here won't be one that lasts. I'm not so sure. I'll let the rest of the week play itself out and take it from there. The market is still at the mercy of external factors. Europe and Asia had big gains overnight as money is moving back into stocks. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Once again a rally simply appears out of nowhere as the Dow gained 599 points on the now usual heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still in a channel and still in negative territory. Can we get more than one day with price gains? We'll find out tomorrow. We all know the Fed will raise interest rates and my thinking is that it's already been factored in. Perhaps we'll see some more buying with the positive expiration week bias. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have moved back to mid-range. So it's anybodies guess which way we go tomorrow. The NASDAQ led the way today and that's a plus. We're still in headline risk mode though. No SPY trades in mind right now for the short term. Gold got clobbered again as the futures dropped almost $45. What goes up in a straight line usually comes back the same way. The US dollar was steady and interest rates were slightly higher. The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX had a slight gain. Volume was average. Gold has a huge drop and the gold shares don't follow? That's a plus for the gold shares. My GDX March calls somehow have a slight gain with only 3 days left. The inflation data came in where expected and GDX opened with a big gap lower. But my stop loss order wasn't hit and the gold shares made it all the way back. Not sure what happens tomorrow but I will hold on to this trade until we get the Fed announcement and see what happens there. The short term indicators for GDX are now mid-range so it could go either way. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and it finally closed below 30. Still above the 50 day moving average and a long way from the 20 level. My next idea is to wait for the S&P to reach the down trend line at 4375 and try the April SPY puts. We'll see. I'd expect some volatility tomorrow with the Fed. Asia was mostly lower and Europe had slight losses. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments ahead of the Fed.

The Dow held up better than most today but it was an overall negative session for stocks. The industrials were flat on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower in a sideways channel. The NASDAQ led the way down again and was off 2%. The S&P 500 was lower and is not yet short term oversold. Inflation data out tomorrow and then the Fed on Wednesday. The trend remains lower until proven otherwise. Perhaps the positive option expiration bias will appear. However we are still in a headline driven volatility market, so anything goes. Gold got clobbered today as the futures fell around $30. The US dollar was steady but interest rates jumped. The XAU lost 7, while GDX fell 1 1/2. Volume was heavy to the downside. I did put in an overnight order for the GDX March calls and it was filled early. I did have a stop loss order in and the price went right through it. It eventually came back to get filled and the loss was just shy of 50%. That fits with the main goal of this year which is not to take big losses. If the position gets cut in half it obviously was the wrong idea or time. I did place another order for the GDX March calls at a closer to the money strike price later in the session. It too was eventually filled and I'm holding it ahead of tomorrows inflation report. That was the original plan to have some GDX calls ahead of that report. Although I'm not sure how long I'll hold this one. It has a slight profit. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today. The short term indicators are mid-range so we could go either way from here. The market is overdue for some kind of rally but we haven't been able to put anything together lately. Small stocks are on the verge of breaking the recent lows. The 50 day moving average is about to break the 200 day moving average to the downside for the S&P 500. Interesting times. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to begin the week. We'll see how the markets react to the inflation data tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index fell 229 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still stuck in a sideways range in negative territory. We started with a gap higher and then drifted down for the rest of the session with a sharper decline in the final hour. The NASDAQ led the way lower again and that's a negative. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are not yet oversold and have room to move lower. With the Fed on tap along with option expiration, next week should be interesting to say the least. There will be opportunities and I'll be looking for them this weekend. I'm not sure which way things will go. We're still at the mercy of headline risk. Gold fell a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates held steady. Gold did come off of the worst levels of the session. The XAU dropped almost 2 and GDX was off around 2/3. Volume was average. We're still short term overbought for the gold shares but not at extremes. I may try the GDX March calls again next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was bit higher today and that at least fits with the decline. The short term indicators here are mid-range indicating things could go one way or the other for the market. Plenty to ponder the next couple of days while checking the charts. The one thing that remains constant is the volatility. Option premiums are still sky high but next week the time premium will be getting taken out as we move towards Friday. Trading will have to remain nimble and quick as that is what the game calls for now. Hopefully we'll be up to the challenge. Europe was higher and Asia generally lower to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sellers were back today as the Dow fell 112 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still meandering in a sideways channel. We were off by 400 during the session so it could have been worse. Volume was lighter today so perhaps the selling will take a break tomorrow. The NASDAQ was the leader to the downside though and that's not a plus. The S&P 500 short term indicators are back to mid-range so we could go either way here. The inflation data was about in line with what was expected. I'm now looking at both the puts and calls for the SPY with just over a week to go in the March option cycle. We are still at the mercy of headline risk. Gold was up around a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU climbed 3, while GDX gained 3/4. Volume was back to average which is lighter than it's been. We got the expected bounce up for GDX from the inflation data early on and I sold the March calls there for about a 135% profit. This was a short term trade that worked out and I might try it again next week ahead of the producer price report. GDX does however remain both short and medium term overbought but that doesn't mean that it can't go higher. These are not normal market times. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Trying to guard against being overconfident just because we had a winning trade. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators here have turned back down. Still above the 30 level though and not close to the 50 day moving average yet. Not sure what to make of it since being lower for the VIX along with lower stock prices doesn't fit the usual pattern. I suppose we'll continue to wait and see if the S&P 500 can make it back to the down trend line that now comes in at 4400. Trying the SPY puts there makes sense for now. The 50 day moving average is about to cross below the 200 day moving average for the S&P. That is a long term sell signal. Most of the other major indicaes have already done this including the Dow. Asia was higher and Europe lower last night. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

A rally springs up out of nowhere as the Dow soared 653 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to trying to turn up again. It remains trading in a channel below the zero line in negative territory. Commodities fell today led by oil and that could be one of the excuses for the rise. Oversold conditions is another and now the short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus. We'll get inflation data tomorrow and we'll see how the market reacts to that. I do think that as time goes on we'll still see lower prices for stocks. The market is in a down trend until proven otherwise. Gold got clobbered today as what goes up in a straight line usually falls back like that too. The precious metal futures dropped almost $45. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were up. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was good. The gold shares came back from their worst levels early in the morning. Considering the huge drop in gold the gold shares continued to attract capital. I did place an overnight order for some GDX March calls in case of a drop and it got filled first thing in the morning. The gold shares are both short and medium term overbought. This is a trade in normal times that wouldn't make sense at all. But these are not normal times. I wanted to try the calls ahead of the inflation data due out and somehow the order was filled because the price I was willing to pay wasn't even near the closing price yesterday. But we got a big decline early and now we're in the trade. It is showing a small profit. Remember what I said about needing to be nimble and quick? Hopefully I can be and probably will be out of this trade tomorrow morning. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today but remains above the 30 level. More overbought than oversold here. Ideally we'd like to see this indicator fall back to the 50 day moving average as the S&P 500 makes its way back to the down trend line that began in January. That would give us a chance to try the SPY puts. But the market rarely cooperates with our best laid plans. We're still at the mercy of the Russian/Ukraine conflict for now. Asia was mixed while Europe had huge rallies. We'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and see how the markets react to the inflation data tomorrow.

It was a crazy back and forth session as the Dow fell 184 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trending lower but there is no conviction either way here. The Dow was up almost 600 at one stage of the game. The market remains hostage to the situation in the Ukraine. The S&P 500 is on its lower Bollinger band but the short term indicators are not completely oversold yet. The SPY option premiums remain extraodinarily high due to the extreme volatility. Right now it appears that all signs are pointing lower and taking out the 4100 on the S&P. But the market is in crazy mode and a 1000 point rally to the upside can not be counted out either if just to relieve the oversold condition. I'n on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold exploded to the upside as the futures climbed over sixty bucks. The US dollar was a bit lower but interest rates moved up. The gold shares finished well off of their highs, with the XAU gaining 1 3/8 and GDX up 1/4. Volume was extremely heavy as it can be looked at as an upside blow off on the daily charts. I do still like the gold shares here though and I'm thinking of getting some calls tomorrow ahead of Thursday inflation report. The problem is that the gold shares and gold are so overbought on both a short and medium term basis that you just don't know how long this rally can last. Plus when things go up in a straight line they always come back down the same way and fast. Today could have been the beginning of that for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today despite the drop in stocks which doesn't fit. Not sure what that means. We are in volatile times caused by a war that was not completely expected. The geo-political turmoil is off the charts with disruptions, sanctions etc. Hopefully we'll be able to take advantage of the opportunities with some of our long term capital commitments. As for the trading, you've got to be quick and nimble. Don't hold on to anything too long. We're in fast market conditions for now. Asia was lower and Europe mixed in last nights trade. It seems like we've had a weeks worth of trading and it's only Tuesday. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The selling continued today as the Dow fell 797 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. No end in sight for the Russian/Ukraine conflict seems to be the culprit. It looks like we're going to test the recent lows of 4100 on the S&P 500. The short term indicators there have turned down and are not yet oversold. Will things hold up? Hard to say with headline risk in the forefront. I will say that when a cease fire or peace agreement is reached we should see at least a one day huge rally. But we aren't there yet. Options premiums remain inflated for the SPY so we're still on the sidelines there. Gold continued to move straight up as the futures added another $35 to close at the $2000 level. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were mixed. The XAU gained 2 1/2, while GDX was up about a point. Volume remains heavy and GDX remains short term overbought. Starting to move straight up for GDX as well and that never ends well but we don't know how long it will continue. Commodity markets are setting new highs with no relief in sight. Prices for consumers continue to rise with no relief in the picture. Stock markets around the globe are selling off as the Russian/Ukraine situation will affect things in a negative way due to rising costs for goods. It is an interesting situation to say the least. Throw in the Fed cutting back on the easy money and you can see the problems the market will have going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher again today and is getting short term overbought but not there yet. Above 35 now and this indicator usually doesn't stay this high for long. However we are in an unstable situation now given what's going on in the world and the markets. Fear has taken over so we'll just have to see how far it goes. The only thing we can count on with any degree of certainty is that volatility will remain. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Lower again today but a burst of buying in the last ten minutes saved it from being worse. The Dow fell 180 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trying to grind higher without much success. Down from the start today as the combination of the Russian/Ukraine conflict with a stronger than expected jobs report induced selling. It could have been worse as we were off over 500 early on. The NASDAQ again led the way down and that's a negative. The short term indicators there and with the S&P 500 remain mid-range despite the selling. The bulls have to hope things stay that way or improve because if not we'll be back down to test the recent lows. With inflation data due out next week that will probably be high, I don't think that a rally is in the cards near term. I could be wrong. Any good news about the war will send stocks up in a hurry in my view. But for now down trend lines for the major averages remain in effect. Gold soared as the safe haven money is pouring in. The futures gained $35. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped as money seeks a safe place. The longer the conflict carries on, the higher these assets will go. The XAU climbed 4 7/8, while GDX added 1 1/3. Volume was heavy. GDX is breaking through the down trend line on the weekly chart with good volume. It is a valid breakout. Both short and medium term overbought here for GDX. It is also pretty far above both the 50 and 200 days moving averages. I should have chased it long ago but you cannot ignore the money flow into the gold shares. I'll try the calls on the next pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but finished off of its best levels. Volatilty is here to stay according to this indicator. Two weeks to go in the March option cycle. Premiums remain too high on the SPY for me to attempt anything there for now. We're still at the mercy of the headlines form Ukraine. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Europe and Asia finished the week with losses as money continues to flee risk assets. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Trying to make up its mind as the Dow fell 96 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to move higher. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. In normal times you could say today was just waiting on the jobs report tomorrow. But these are not normal times as we are in a headline risk mode because of the Russian invasion. The S&P 500 short term indicators are stuck at mid-range. The premiums on the SPY options are so high that it may not matter anyway. The volatility premium now built into the options is so high that it is cost prohibitive to attempt them. The NASDAQ was turned back at the down trend line on the daily chart. Can we bounce back tomorrow? We're at an important juncture there. Gold was up $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU gained 1 1/4, while GDX was up 1/4. Volume was average. GDX is sitting right at the down trend line on the weekly chart that goes back to 2020. It is overbought on both a short and medium term basis. In rallies, that doesn't matter. Money continues to pour into the gold shares. The option premiums here have jumped as well due to the unending interest in the precious metal. My thinking is that when there is a cease fire in the Ukraine gold will drop and then we'll take a look at the April calls there. But we cannot know for certain when that will occur. We do have inflation data due out next week and that could push GDX through the longer term down trend line and attract even more buyers. This is one move that should have been chased. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished pretty much flat today. Could go either way here as I'm not getting a good indication of what it is implying here. There's still plenty of time left in the March option cycle for a trade but those premiums are pricey. Perhaps tomorrow will give us a better idea of what's going on. Asia was mixed and Euope lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 596 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. The war still goes on and the Fed is ready to raise interest rates. But the market moves on. The NASDAQ is now on the cusp of breaking through its down trend line and one more day like today will do it. The summation index is trying to make up its mind where to go and it appears that it will be to the upside. It has hung around in negative territory for too long. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still mid-range. That down trend line now comes in at 4450. I'm not sure if we'll try the SPY March puts there if the summation index continues higher. More Fedspeak tomorrow and the jobs report on Friday. Gold took a breather as the futures fell $15. The US dollar was a bit lower and fell back from the highs of the session. Interest rates went back up as the Fed is ready to fight inflation. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. Money contiues to pour into the gold stocks. They remain short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX retreated today but still remains above the 30 level. It appears that volatility is here to stay. For now. The small stocks are holding up better here. A break of their down trend lines could change the bearish picture. Hasn't happened yet but the possibility is there. The TRAN broke through its down trend line that began in the beginning of January today. Usually the TRAN and the NASDAQ are the leaders of the overall trend. We'll keep a close eye on the ongoing developments. But don't be surprised if prices keep moving up here. Europe was higher and Asia lower in last nights trading action. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Heading lower today as the Dow fell 597 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues sideways in a congestion zone and in negative territory. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ are rolling over. It's all about the headlines coming out of the Ukraine as the market is being held hostage at the moment. We've got the Fed chairman Powell speaking before Congress for the next two days but will it matter? Options premiums for the SPY are still elevated due to the volatility. The NADAQ is closer to breaking through its down trend line that began in the beginning of January. We'll keep an eye on that as that index has held up better lately. The S&P 500 indicators are still mid-range. My thinking is that peace will break out sooner rather than later and stocks will rally but I could be wrong. Gold soared on the haven effect and the gold futures were up almost fifty bucks. The US dollar was higher and interest rates continue to fall. Perhaps these markets know something that we don't. The XAU gained 6 1/2, while GDX soared 1 1/2. Volume was heavy. GDX is on the verge of breaking through a down trend line on a weekly basis that has been in effect since mid 2020. Money has been flocking to the gold shares in what seems to be a perfect storm there for the bulls. I still like the GDX calls but obviously I'm too late and too slow for this move. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX took off higher today and reached the 35 level before pulling back. Not sure what will happen next here. If the VIX continues higher we should see a rapid decline in stocks. If not perhaps we'll see that down trend line in the NASDAQ get breached to the upside and the bearish climate will change. It's a pretty fluid situation at the moment with the Ukraine wild card thrown into the mix. We've got the state of the Union speech tonight in the US but I don't think that will be a market mover either way. Asia was higher and Europe lower last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.