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Tuesday, May 03, 2022

Waiting on the Fed as the Dow was up 67 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The S&P 500 led the way today but is still short term oversold. Not sure what the reaction will be tomorrow as it is already a foregone conclusion that rates will go up 1/2 a point. We'll just wait and see what the market has in store for us. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a touch lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares have out performed the precious metal for the past couple of sessions. GDX is still short term oversold. I did place another order for the GDX May calls and I'm leaving it out there. My hope is we get some selling after the Fed and the order gets filled. My feeling is that the decline in the gold shares is over. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and the short term indicators have rolled over. It appears to be saying that higher stock prices are on the way. Some of our indicators for the market are so blown out to the downside that a rally here would be no surprise. However it must also be said that in down markets things stay oversold longer than you think. I guess we'll see what the market reaction to the Fed is tomorrow and go from there. What was open in Asia was mixed, while Europe was higher. It's a waiting game for now.

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