Monday, May 23, 2022
The week begins with a rally as the Dow gained 618 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. We got some follow through upside from Fridays late gains. The Dow led the way which isn't the most bullish scenario but we'll take it. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We'll see if we can get through the first down trend line at about 4065 this time around. The S&P needs to head back towards both the 50 and 200 day moving averages and we'll see where we go from there. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar continued lower and interest rates moved up. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. Holding off on any GDX trades for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have turned back down. The VIX appears to be implying higher stock prices in the near term. Can't say that for sure though as it hasn't been able to get back down through its 50 day moving average at 26 lately. We'll see what happens if it gets there. To me it seems that the positive RSI divergences for the major averages will work this time and we'll see higher prices going forward. Not something that turns into a rally back to new highs but something that brings us back to the overhead resistance of which there is plenty. It would also relieve us of some of the extreme bearishness that prevails at the moment. Then perhaps we'll head lower later on as the summer moves on. I'm still looking for at least the 3600 level on the S&P. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to start the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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