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Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Mixed would be the word to describe todays price action as the Dow gained 48 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ lower. The NASDAQ was the clear under performer. However the major indices finished well above their worst levels of the session. That is part of the subtle change that we are seeing now. Sell offs are not continuing into the close for the moment. Buyers are stepping in. This is different from what we've witnessed for the last couple of months. It's one of the reasons why I think the wholesale selling is done for now. I could be wrong. We haven't made it through the first down trend line for the S&P yet. Gold was up over $15 on the futures today. The US dollar was lower again along with interest rates. The XAU was up two points, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains light here. Both the XAU and GDX are challenging their 200 day moving averages. They've both made it past their short term down trend lines but the volume is lacking. The short term indicators here are almost mid-range. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today but the daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower. I'm thinking that we'll get back to the 50 day moving average and see what happens there. There's still plenty of bears put there for the advance in stocks to continue in my view. I also believe that we'll see a return towards the 50 day moving averages for the major indexes before we think about selling off again. The market is still coming to grips with the reality of lower expectations from companies as we go forward. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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