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Thursday, May 26, 2022

Finally some kind of rally is taking place as the Dow gained 517 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way up. A bottom is in place for now. The S&P 500 broke through the first down trend line of resistance. The short term indicators here are moving forward. Other indices have broken through the near term resistance as well. We are making our way back towards the 50 day moving averages for the major stock indexes. The S&P 500 has plenty of resistance at the next down trend line and congestion at around the 4200 level. That's the next stop in my view and we'll see what happens when we get there. It is possible that the down trend in stocks is over but I'm not in that camp. I still think a trip down to the 3600 level for the S&P is what's in store. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares remain stuck below their 200 day moving averages for now. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today but remains above its 50 day. Not yet completely oversold here. The major stock indices have found buyers here and it could last for a while. However if the head and shoulders pattern on the S&P weekly chart is valid, there's more room to go lower as we move out in time. I'm guessing we'll trend higher and sideways for a while until we reach the next resistance. What happens there will be the next key. We did just reach some very oversold conditions that usually mark market bottoms with levels of bearishness at extremes. We'll need some time to work that off before heading down again if my view is correct but of course I could be wrong. The market goes where it wants. Asia was mixed and Europe higher again. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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