Tuesday, May 17, 2022
Continuing higher as the Dow gained 431 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned back up. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up and are mid-range. The positive expiration week bias seems to be in effect. I'm pretty sure we can say that the decline is over for now. However there is plenty of upside resistance as we make our way higher from here. At some point I'm pretty sure that we'll turn back down to new lows but that could be weeks or a couple of months from now. We'll try and take our cues from the summation index. Gold was flat on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX was flat. Volume remains pretty light for the gold shares as there is no interest after the recent decline. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued down and landed on its 50 day moving average. Not yet short term oversold here. Would like to see it get back to the 20 level in order to purchase some puts. The markets hit negative extremes on numerous indicators recently and it will take some time to work them off. There is a chance that the lows are in for this move down but I don't think so. The easy money is just starting to be pared back. My thinking is that we'll see a lower low sometime in the autumn or sooner and that will be the time to think about putting longer term money to work. I do not have any short term trades in mind right now as we will be moving into the June option cycle next week. We are almost at the first down trend line for the S&P at 4110. We'll see how that goes. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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