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Thursday, May 12, 2022

More selling today but a last hour bounce limited the damage. The Dow fell 103 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues down. Inflation numbers today were par for the course as the market opened lower then bounced around. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed well off of their lows for the session. They remain short term oversold. We're still blown out on the technical indicators as a decline like this renders them moot. Almost got to the 3840 level on the S&P to confirm bear market territory. Although the 20% threshold is arbitrary in reality. It's plain to see that we're in a down market. I'm expecting some kind of decent bounce before option expiration next Friday. Not sure if I'll be able to figure out the timing. Gold fell $30 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates lower. The XAU dropped over 5 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/2. Volume was good to the downside again. Both indexes closed up from the worst levels of the day. I did put in an order for the GDX June calls but canceled it during the session. GDX remains oversold and staying that way. On the daily chart here the pattern is a possible measured move down. The measuring objective is 29. If it does make it down there, I may try the GDX May calls again for the bounce. Both gold and silver have broken their longer term support on the daily charts. How low they go is now a guessing game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have turned down. Could the VIX be signaling that this part of the decline is coming to an end? Hard to say as I haven't been able to figure things out here for a while. As I've said, the major stcok indices are pretty far from their 50 day moving averages and in the past that has led to at least some kind of bounce. The question is when and I would not be surprised to see a decent bounce before expiration. Europe and Asia were down overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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