Friday, May 13, 2022
We've been looking for some kind of bounce and we saw it today as the Dow gained 466 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but is trying to halt its decline. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. Still short term oversold for the major stock indices. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. However one day does not make a rally. But the extreme oversold conditions that we've seen prevail may finally be coming to an end. They have already lasted longer than usual. That doesn't necessarily mean the decline is completely over but perhaps the selling will halt for now. Gold dropped another $15 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU rose 2 2/3 while GDX was up over 2/3. Volume was a bit above average. The gold shares followed the overall market higher today. I did place an open order for the GDX May calls overnight but canceled it early this morning. Perhaps I'll try the GDX June calls as we move forward. GDX continues to be short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved lower today and the short term technical indicators have moved lower as well. The VIX is sitting on a short term up trend line and if it can break lower from here I'd expect the bounce to continue. My guess is that's what about to happen but I could be wrong. We are overdue for the sellers to take a break though. Option expiration week is upon us. Not sure what to expect this time around. The NASDAQ has been in a bear market and the S&P 500 almost joined it this week. I still think that it is only a matter of time before the S&P gets there. It looks like the weekly S&P 500 chart has a massive head and shoulders top that has been triggered. The measuring objective there would be the 3600 level. That's eventually where I feel this is going. Plenty of charts to go over this weekend. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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