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Wednesday, May 25, 2022

It was another day of back and forth as the Dow gained 191 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. The NASDAQ led the way higher. The S&P 500 is now at the first down trend line on the daily chart and the short term indicators are pointing up. Another day like today will get us through that line and that would be the first step to higher prices going forward. I still think that we've got to move back towards the 50 day moving average before we get another leg lower. Or perhaps the decline is over as we don't know what the future holds. But for now we'll see if we can get through this first line of resistance. Gold lost $13 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. They are stuck at their 200 day moving averages. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with a higher market. I get the feeling it will make it past the 50 day moving average this time around. We did recently hit some pretty negative extremes on some of the technical indicators that we follow. So some kind of relief rally is not out of the question and actually overdue. However looking out over the medium term, the measuring objective for the head and shoulders pattern for the S&P 500 on the weekly chart has not been reached yet. We are still looking for 3600 in the months ahead. Patience for now. Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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