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Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Once again the market tried to rally today but failed. The Dow lost 326 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. The inflation data came in a little worse than expected but the market moved higher. However that didn't last and we finished on the lows of the session. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down and that's a negative. Indicators are blown out to the downside and remain that way. Oversold for weeks on the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500. Almost to the 20% down bear market threshold for the S&P. Option premiums remain high for the SPY. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was steady and interest rates slipped. The XAU was off 1/3, while GDX was flat. Volume was a little above average. The gold shares followed the market as they rallied early and then gave it all back. I dumped the GDX May calls that I had for a 70% loss. I had a chance to take the acceptable 50% loss but didn't. This was a trade that never had a chance as it did not show a profit the entire time that I held it. I'd still like to try the gold share calls again but will go out to the June contract if I do. However the market just keeps dropping with no stabaization in sight. Gold itself is not providing the usual safe haven. Interesting times. Mentally I'm disappointed in the latest trade as I did not follow the guidelines to stay away from a big loss. Discipline is one of the keys to the game and if you can't do that you don't have a chance. The VIX was lower today and that market dropped. That doesn't fit. The VIX remains overbought in the short term. Not sure where it is going from here. We'll get more inflation data tomorrow and the odds are it won't be good. We'll see how the market reacts. Seven days to go in the May option cycle. I'll look at things tonight and decide if I want to place another order in GDX. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. Tomorrows another day.

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