Monday, April 25, 2022
A one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. The most watched index gained 238 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still heading lower. The NASDAQ led the way today and that is a plus for the bulls. A lot of big tech earnings are out this week and perhaps they can save the market from a complete break down. I'm getting the feeling after today that they will. The major stock indexes have held up where they need to for now. The S&P 500 is still short term oversold but today could be the beginning of a move back up to the down trend line. We'll know more by the end of the week. However if we turn back down this week and go through the zero line on the summation index it will get ugly. That's my view on where we stand at the moment. It is an important week for stocks. Gold got clobbered as the futures fell $35 and dipped below $1900. The US dollar was higher and interest rates fell. The XAU lost 5 1/3, while GDX shed 1 1/4. Volume was good again to the downside. My open order for the GDX May calls was filled. I thought about adjusting it last night as gold was weak on the futures but didn't as I did not think we'd see the losses in the gold shares that we saw today. The entry on the trade was lousy. GDX slid right through the weekly down trend line at 36 and was off better than two points during the session. My GDX call trade is showing a small loss. Plenty of time left for this trade but it could be the case of probably getting out sooner rather than later. The stop loss order is in. The gold shares are short term oversold here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX reversed course today as well but remains above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The short term indicators are trying to roll over though. I don't have a good feel for the VIX here. Big tech will probably be the key for the market this week. Most of the important companies have their earnings reports in the coming days. We'll also a look at 1st quarter GDP on Thursday. Today was promising for the bulls but we're not out of the woods yet. Europe and Asia were lower overnight as selling took over around the globe. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.
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