It was pretty much a day of running in place although eh Dow did lose 79 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow as the NASDAQ gained almost 20 points.  As long as the small stocks show leadership we are going higher.  The TRAN and RUT were slightly lower today but it's probably just a breather.  Not a lot of economic news today just some more rumblings of Brexit.  The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but it can stay that way for a while in up trends.  GE was up over 1/8 on light volume.  Gold added a couple bucks on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed again.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional moves up on extremely light volume.  Short term oversold now for the gold shares but I'm in no rush just yet to step in to purchase the GDX calls.  If we just go sideways for the rest of the week I may consider it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm still looking for higher prices as we continue on with the week.  There's nothing right now that would change that view.  Waiting on the jobs report Friday.  Volume isn't what it was but we're still trending higher.  As long as we continue to have highs above highs and lows above lows, you can tell what the trend is.  Staying patient for now and hoping for a chance to try the SPY April calls before expiration.  Although I will concede that the easy chance for that has passed.  Europe and Asia were higher but NIKK was flat.  We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

And away we go as the Dow climbed 329 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index has turned around and is moving up.  Stocks were higher around the world as money flows continue into equities.  Better news out of China was the catalyst as the US data was not inspiring.  We are only going higher from here in my opinion but it looks like it's too late to participate.  Any declines can be bought.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was off $6 on the futures as the US dollar ended the session little changed.  The XAU dropped 1 1/4, while GDX shed almost 1/2.  Volume was good.  The up trend line in GDX that had been in effect since November was violated to the downside today.  I did not buy the calls when we got to the line like I said I should have done previously.  There's now a potential double top in place for GDX but that hasn't been confirmed yet.  I can make the case for support at another up trend line at 20.5, which coincides with the 200 day moving average.  However that's a long way from where we are now and would take quite some time to develop.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Breaking out to new highs on the year for the S&P 500.  The next overhead resistance would be the all time highs at around 2950 which is still quite a way to go.  At this rate we are going to get there.  Barring some negative unforeseen headline coming out of nowhere, we're going up.  With just a little under three weeks to go in the April option cycle, I hope to get another chance to participate.  Missing trades is as painful as losing trades but the game simply keeps moving along.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week shapes up ahead of the employment report on Friday.  Foreign stocks were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A nice move higher as the Dow gained 211 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  This should turn the summation index around to the upside but not by a lot.  The short term indicators for the S&P are turning back up.  No guts, no glory as it is probably too late to purchase the SPY April calls.  But we'll see.  I do think that we are going to head higher for the April option cycle which has three weeks to go.  GE gained a dime on light volume.  Gold and the US dollar had very slight gains.  The XAU and GDX didn't do much today on light volume.  I'm still considering the GDX April calls if we hit the up trend line.  Mentally I'm pretty tired today and will be cutting the blog short.  The 1st quarter is over and it was pretty good for stocks.  We'll see how we begin April on Monday.  I'm still bullish here for the S&P 500 but the ideal time to purchase the SPY calls may have already passed.  Gold didn't follow through to the downside so perhaps if we can just hang around next week, I'll try the GDX April calls as my next trade.  I'll have to check all the charts over the weekend and take it from there.  Europe and Asia were higher as well, so it seems there is plenty of money to buy going around for now.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Higher today as the Dow gained 91 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around again or at least move sideways.  I certainly didn't have the guts to buy the SPY April calls here but perhaps I should have.  Light volume is always a concern and that's what we've gotten this week.  End of the month tomorrow.  RUT and TRAN were both higher again today and that's a plus.  The VIX is looking somewhat constructive here as well for higher prices going forward.  Another Brexit vote tomorrow but that concern hasn't really affected the market here in the US.  GE was off a few cents on light volume.  Gold found plenty of sellers today as the futures dropped twenty bucks.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX shed 5/8.  Volume was good.  We are almost back to the up trend line from November for GDX at about 22.2.  This will be the moment of truth once again as that line has held up numerous times.  It is also just about the same level as the 50 day moving average.  This is the logical area to try the GDX April calls.  There's still three weeks to go in the April option cycle.  The problem is that the short term technical indicators are not even close to being oversold.  Hence this could be the decline that breaks that up trend line.  I'll be keeping a close eye on it here.  If we stall around the line after todays sharp drop, I'll probably try the calls.  If we continue lower in a hurry, I won't make the trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 has been moving sideways this week.  The short term technical indicators are at about mid-range.  I do think that we'll be moving higher from here.  The trouble is that there is no clear technical signal.  I don't want to make this a guessing game.  Sometimes you have to wait and this appears to be one of those types of times.  I'll keep an eye on things as usual, especially the gold shares right here.  But I'm thinking that it's best to let the month end tomorrow and go back over everything this weekend.  That's the plan for now.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Weaker today as the Dow lost 32 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is trying to move sideways but continues lower.  The S&P 500 appears to be in a holding pattern following Fridays big drop but I'm still thinking that it will have a bullish resolution.  The overall market was a lot weaker than the Dow today and that is not a positive.  But the TRAN was positive and RUT finished well off of its lows.  No clear signal yet though as most of the short term technical indicators remain mid-range.  I'd like to have the guts to get some SPY April calls here but I probably don't.  Only two trading days left in this month.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was slightly lower while the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume was light.  Maybe just waiting for GDX to get back down to the up trend line is the right move going forward.  Needless to say the trading never gets easier.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Waiting out this week is an option since there isn't really any rush to do anything without a clear signal.  So perhaps patience is the best course of action for now.  I've gone over the charts and I'm still not exactly certain what to do here.  I think that I'll wait to see how things go tomorrow and take it from there.  Europe and Asia were both lower with the exception of Hong Kong.  They're still trying to figure out Brexit.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A nice gain today as the Dow rose 141 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back to sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and the RUT was up as well.  I'm just looking for a spot to buy the SPY April calls but the time may already have passed.  The VIX has come back down from testing the peak that we saw in early March.  The short term technical indicators there have rolled over or are about to.  It's just a matter of the timing to get long as I don't think that a bigger decline is in the cards right now.  GE was up almost 1/4 but the volume was light.  Gold fell $7 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The gold shares did not follow as both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Waiting for a retest of the up trend line here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Waiting to see what happens next here as my guess is that we'll be heading to the upside.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn around and I think they'll be successful.  Still plenty of time in the April option cycle so the premiums remain pricey.  But if the timing is right that will all take care of itself.  End of the month and the 1st quarter coming on Friday.  I'm not expecting any earth shattering moves like we saw on Friday but who knows?  For now it's watch and wait but I do favor the long side for stocks at this juncture.  Europe and Asia were higher last night.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight. 

We did not see the downside follow through to Fridays debacle as the Dow rose 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index is heading lower.  The market ignored the results of the Trump/Russia investigation that could have been viewed as a positive.  I would have expected some sort of rally on the news of no collusion or the release itself now being out of the way.  We did bounce around today with the selling holding up at around the 2790 area on the S&P.  I am considering getting some SPY April calls here but it's tricky.  The technical indicators have gotten back to the midway point, so they're not completely oversold.  RUT finished higher today though and that has been the leader.  GE was off a dime on light volume.  Gold has buyers as the futures were up almost $10.  The US dollar was flat.  The XAU added 1 7/8, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  Overbought here and I'll have to wait to see if we get back to the up trend line.  Another missed trade here but at least now we have an idea of what to do and the negative seasonal factor will be gone.  Didn't have any effect this time around anyway.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The inverted yield curve is another topic for discussion in the market these days.  Recession is the prediction there.  Possible, yes but the question is when?  It is inevitable that another recession will occur.  The flight to bonds recently seems to imply that we're already there.  The only reason I'm stating this is because it affects the stock market and out trading.  The Fed has already said that rates are done rising for now.  That's a positive backdrop.  We're still in a seasonally positive period for stocks as well.  I'm beginning to think that Friday was a one day overreaction to the 3 month bill being higher than the 10 year note.  But that's guess for sure and only time will prove if it's right or wrong.  I'm still going to take a long look at getting some SPY April calls tonight.  Asia and Europe were both lower overnight with Asia dropping in line with Fridays US drop.  Europe not so much.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight price action.

We experienced a very sharp reversal to the downside today as the Dow fell 461 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  the summation index has turned lower.  The inverted yield curve was the excuse for todays drop as short rates peeked above longer rates today.  This has been a precursor for a recession at times in the past.  Regardless, it negates the positive price action that we've seen this week as the S&P 500 has closed below the near term support zone.  Volatility zoomed higher and I'm guessing that was the reason the SPY April call premiums didn't drop as much as expected.  The major stock indices closed right at their lows for the session which should make Monday morning pretty interesting.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over and we're not oversold yet.  GE lost over 1/4 on better volume.  Gold rose $5 on the futures and the US dollar was up a bit as well.  Flight to safety perhaps?  The XAU along with GDX had very slight fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So was today a one day wonder or the beginning of a more serious decline?  That will be the question on traders minds over the weekend.  Certainly the drop today after a very positive Thursday has gotten everyones attention.  Especially since the Fed just did and said about all that it can this week.  We will stick with the technicals though and they have just rolled over.  I would guess that we are at least going to go back to the 200 day moving average on the S&P at around 2750.  If and when we get there, if we are oversold it may be the spot to try the SPY April calls.  I'm not exactly bearish here yet because money is still cheap.  But we'll see how things go in the coming trading days.  I do still favor the GDX April calls as well but need to see an oversold technical condition before attempting that trade.  Plenty of chart work to do over the weekend.  Asia was higher and Europe lower in overnight trading.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A nice move higher today as the Dow gained 216 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  I think that it is safe to say now that the overhead resistance in the S&P 500 has been overcome and higher prices are in the future.  If we somehow get a snap back to the resistance at 2820, that would be the time to try the SPY April calls.  The price of the options now made it cost prohibitive really.  Although the trade appears that it would of worked, the outlay outweighed the risk involved.  In other words it cost too much to attempt the trade here.  It is a Fed induced rally after yesterdays back and forth.  GE was up a nickel on light volume.  Gold gained another $7 on the futures.  The US dollar got a bounce today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low and as long as that's the case the path of least resistance will be higher.  The small stocks, although overbought, are leading the way higher with the exception of RUT.  Plenty of time in the April option cycle but waiting for a valid signal is the mode I'm in at the moment.  I'd really like to simply jump on board here but the premiums are very high with that extra week priced in them.  Patience for now.  Brexit is still in the news but it looks like it will be put on hold for a while instead of being resolved by the end of the month deadline.  The US/China trade talks continue with no new headlines today.  The market is always at the risk of a headline event, some times more than others.  It appears to be a quiet time for now.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.  

We opened lower, got a rally off the Fed but then could not hold it.  The Dow fell 141 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ posting a slight gain.  The Fed was as dovish as it can get but we couldn't hold the rally.  It looks like the market is trying to roll over here but it hasn't happened yet.  The Dow is rarely the leader for these things but you never know.  The fact that the NASDAQ is holding up is a plus.  The question is what drives prices from here?  Perhaps the US/China trade talks will drive tings from here.  GE was up a few cents but the volume was light.  Gold added $7 on the futures as the dovish Fed drove the US dollar lower.  The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  GDX again touched its rising trend line and bounced off.  I did consider getting the GDX April calls today but did not put in an order.  Their value doubled today on the Fed.  It appears that the trend line form November is a key area since it has held now for numerous times.  Perhaps I should simply listen and get long the next time GDX gets there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Nothing for me to do but wait here as the S&P 500 continues overbought even with todays decline.  Right now it doesn't look like the rise above the resistance at 2820 is for real.  I'll continue to be patient here and see how the rest of the week plays out.  With the drop in rates I would think that it would make equities more attractive but who knows?  The Fed said everything the market wanted to hear today but the rally failed.  Interesting to say the least.  Europe and Asia were generally weaker overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was a one day reversal to the downside for the Dow as it opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index lost 26 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The Dow was up almost 200 points during the session but we got some US/China trade talk babble that drove prices lower.  So that's back in the news again after being put on the back burner.  Which makes tomorrows Fed statement even more of a non event probably.  The NASDAQ was higher on the day so it wasn't a complete washout.  Regardless, I'm still looking for higher prices going forward and any decline will most likely be the chance to get on board before we move substantially over the resistance at 2820 on the S&P.  GE was off a penny on light volume.  Gold rose $5 on the futures and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  We are once again close to the up trend line in GDX that began in November.  I've been pretty patient regarding the GDX April calls so far.  I suppose the question now is have we reached the time to do this trade or not?  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Well we're back in headline risk mode as the US/China trade talks are back in the market picture.  But we'll stick with the technicals for now.  The S&P 500 short term indicators are overbought and could potentially roll over here in the short term.  RUT is basically moving sideways here and the TRAN had a bearish daily candle today.  So you can make the case for a roll over here.  But will it be because of the Fed or the tariffs talks?  Or perhaps it won't occur at all.  We'll know more tomorrow if we get some downside follow through.  The break above resistance in the S&P hasn't been convincing just yet.  The short term GDX technical indicators are mid-range so you can make a case either way.  I'll wait for the reaction to the Fed and take it from there.  Unless I change my mind overnight.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

A higher start to the week as the Dow gained 65 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  Pretty much a lackluster session with no major price swings.  We have moved above the 2820 resistance level on the S&P 500 but it seems like more of a grind so far.  For now I'm going to wait on the SPY April calls.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  The gold futures and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU fell almost a point, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was light.  Getting close again to the up trend line for GDX.  I am also waiting here to purchase the GDX April calls but we are not yet oversold.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Fed announcement is on Wednesday and the market is most likely biding time until then.  I will do the same.  An extra week in the April option cycle.  I do not expect any surprises out of the Fed so we'll have to see the market reaction to news that is most likely a non event.  We are overbought on the short term technical indicators for the S&P.  However the VIX is very low and does not imply that volatility is about to make a comeback.  Perhaps if we can hang around the 2820 level for a while that will be enough to propel us forward eventually.  That's a guess as usual.  For now. it's sit tight on the Fed.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight with the exception of the DAX.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

Higher today as the Dow gained 139 points on very heavy expiration volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index remains in a lower drift trying to turn around.  All you had to do was buy the SPY calls on Monday morning and hold them until the close today as the expiration week positive bias was in full effect.  Easier said than done as Friday was the ideal buy time.  We did make it above the 2820 level on the S&P and closed above it.  However the heavy volume was expiration related and we did fall back off of the highs for the session.  Never the less it looks like we are heading higher.  Unfortunately the option premiums are pretty high with the extra week on the April cycle thrown in.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was very heavy.  This issue is attracting a lot of attention lately.  Gold was up $7 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were slightly higher on average volume.  I'm still considering the GDX April calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is the lowest that it's been since last October, implying to me that higher prices are still coming.  It closed below 13.  The S&P 500 is overbought now on the short term but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher.  The only near term caveat that is see is that the RUT is not in the lead higher here.  It has been moving sideways.  I'd keep an eye on which way it goes for confirmation of the S&P breakout.  There's still no rush to do anything since we are rolling into the next option cycle.  I missed the March SPY call trade and it's time to move on from here.  I'll check the charts over the weekend to see what looks promising going forward.  Europe and Asia were both higher to close out the week.  It's Friday evening and time  for a rest.

A day of running in place as the Dow rose 7 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  Sideways chop would be the best way to describe todays price action.  The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow but there wasn't any wholesale activity in either direction.  Expiration is tomorrow and the volume will be heavy.  We're stalling here again just below the 2820 mark for the S&P 500.  The short term technical indicators have just a little more room to go on the upside to the overbought zone.  I suspect that we will break through to upside in due time.  GE was up 1/4 on very heavy volume.  Still below the 200 day moving average here but there is room to run on the short term technicals.  Gold was off $13 today as the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU fell two points, while GDX shed almost 2/3.  Volume was average.  Looks like a rollover to the downside here but we'll have to see if there is any follow through.  I'm still interested in the April GDX calls if and when it gets oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Still waiting to see what happens here as the indicators for some of the major averages are at the midway point and deciding which way to go.  The Dow is lagging here and that probably can be attributed to BA.  The small caps have followed the S&P with the exception of RUT.  We'll see if that turns out to be a problem.  Brexit hasn't affected the US stock market this week.  I suppose I'll just let expiration Friday pass and take it from there.  The April option cycle has an extra week in it so there is no hurry with the expensive premiums.  No clear technical signal as well but if the S&P 500 gets through 2820 on good volume I should probably jump on board.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The Dow carries on as my theory of a drop today did not materialize.  The Dow gained 148 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around back to the upside.  The overall market was just about in line with the Dow.  The S&P 500 made it up to 2820 and then backed off.  There is still room on the short term technical indicators to go higher.  Brexit seems to be a non event for the US market.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Gold was up a dozen of the April futures as the US dollar had a good drop.  It appears that the dollar breakout a few days ago was a false one as we have now fallen back below resistance.  The XAU and GDX only had slight fractional gains on light volume though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So far it looks like the typical options expiration week run up as bounce off of the recent lows continues.  There's no reason to believe that we can't just go higher into the close on Friday.  That would not be a surprise.  For me now it's a matter of being patient for the next likely set up.  I'm not exactly sure what that will be but if the seasonal weakness for gold finally arrive, I'll be looking for the GDX April calls.  If not, I'll have to try the breakout above the 2820 on the S&P if and when that happens.  So I'll watch and wait.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

We did get some upside follow through for the overall market but the Dow dropped 96 points on lighter volume.  BA is the culprit here as it is still reeling form the recent plane crash and grounding of a number of its planes by foreign governments.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up but hasn't just yet.  The VIX has fallen though and is back below 14.  Not sure what the market will focus on next but rates are heading lower for some reason.  Perhaps the Brexit issue in England is causing some worry as it is just about time for some kind of decision.  The US/China talks have been out of the news for a few days.  On the technical front the indicators have turned back up and are not overbought yet.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold rose $10 and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX gained over 1/3.  Volume was pretty light though.  I'm still hoping for a drop back to the up trend line here but that remains to be seen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've had a nice bounce and now it is a matter of mustering up enough strength to try the 2820 level again on the S&P 500.  I can make a case for a decline tomorrow because we've had a textbook 1-2-3 rise form the oversold condition that we hit on Friday.  If we were to drop tomorrow the strength of the move lower will tell a lot about where we're headed near term.  I'm still leaning bullish here and I do think that 2820 will be taken out and we'll move on to challenge the old highs.  I could be wrong but the drop in the VIX tells me the market mood has changed and we should move higher.  Gold is holding up well here and that cannot be ignored since it is contrary to the seasonal bias.  I'm still looking at the GDX April calls if the price is what I'm willing to risk.  We'll see how the Brexit vote goes in England and the foreign markets reaction to that vote.  With only three days left in the March option cycle, I won't be attempting any short term trades.  There's also no clear S&P signal at the moment either.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.    

Options expiration week started off with a bang as the Dow rose 200 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving lower but it is on its way to turning around.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal on Friday for a big move and we got it today.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  The S&P 500 rose 40 points and the NASDAQ was up 150.  BA held back the Dow as the stock crashed like one of its planes over the weekend.  Friday was the day to get the SPY March calls and I missed out on an opportunity again.  Buying first thing this morning would have worked but I was waiting for some kind of decline to try it.  Never happened and I did not chase things because you cannot predict just how far the market will go in a day.  However the underlying technical work was spot on and there will be other chances down the road.  Not exactly pleased that I missed this one though.  GE was up about 1/3 and the volume was good.  Gold shed five bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  They did come up off of their lows for the session.  I'm still looking at the April GDX calls but will have to wait for the next oversold signal to give them a try.  My hope here is that we enter a consolidation in the gold shares for a couple of weeks and then the set up for the GDX April calls will materialize.  But markets go where they want.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a jump in the S&P today and I think that we're going higher in the short term.  2820 is the level we need to get through on good volume.  If that occurs I think we will be heading perhaps back to the all time highs.  That's just a guess for now.  A bounce was due here technically and we certainly got it.  Now it's back to the waiting game for the next signal.  It will certainly be interesting to see how the rest of the week shapes up.  Asia was lower overnight with the exception of China.  Europe saw slight gains.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US higher overnight.

It was a rock and roll Friday on the jobs report as the Dow came back from an over 200 point loss to finish with a drop of 23 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading down.  The employment report was very weak and there was selling around the globe ahead of that.  We had a big gap down but the selling did not find any steam.  The Dow almost made it all the way back to even.  Weakness could and should of been bought today.  I did have an order in for the SPY March calls but it wasn't filled.  Perhaps I'll get another chance on Monday.  The VIX made it above 18 and then came back.  I think we've seen the top for the VIX today.  We're short term oversold for the S&P and calls are in order for next week.  The McClellan oscillator is also very oversold as well.  However it looks like today may have been the day to purchase.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  Gold found buyers today and the futures rose $14.  The US dollar was weaker.  The XAU rose 2 1/3, while GDX added over 1/2.  Volume was average.  Another missed trade for me here as I did not take advantage of the oversold signal when I should have.  I was more concerned about the negative seasonality and missed a very good trade here it looks like.  That is inexcusable because I was tracking it, got the buy signal and still did nothing.  I missed getting filled by a penny before canceling the order for the calls earlier this week.  I suppose I'll simply have to wait and see if we fall back to the near term uptrend line again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Well at least I was looking for the SPY calls today and that was the right move.  Perhaps we'll get some weakness on Monday and I'll get another chance.  If not, I'll have to wait for the April option cycle and the next signal.  I'm still hoping that I'll get a chance though.  If the worldwide selling has some follow through on Monday morning, maybe the S&P will open lower.  It looks to me like the decline is over in the S&P for now.  Gold put a halt to its decline this week and I'll simply keep an eye on it from here.  Frustrating missing obvious signals though.  There's nobody to blame but myself.  The markets certainly don't care.  I'll look over the charts this weekend and go from there hoping for some early selling Monday morning on the S&P.  Asia was lower as the Chinese markets got clobbered.  Europe sold off as well.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another day another decline as the Dow lost 200 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were a bit better than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving down.  Getting oversold on a short term basis now for the S&P and I do think that weakness can be bought tomorrow.  Will I do it?  That remains to be seen.  We did get some buying in the final hour and that's a positive.  I could make a case for waiting until Monday to try the SPY March calls but by then it may be too late.  The VIX is not completely overbought just yet but it may not get there.  Perhaps I'll just wait and see what happens on the jobs report and go from there.  Oversold on the McClellan oscillator but that doesn't mean it can't stop dropping.  One thing for sure is that we have rolled over here but it isn't a precipitous decline.  GE bounced back 1/3 today on good volume.  Holding at the 50 day moving average for now.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures despite a big move higher in the US dollar.  The dollar looks like it is breaking out above longer term overhead resistance.  That would not be bullish for gold if it were to happen.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  I would still like to try the GDX April calls but if the dollar breaks out that trade will have to be put on hold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting change in the market psychology here as sellers have finally reappeared.  There's only 6 days left in the March option cycle but I do feel as though there is a profitable trade out there.  I suppose a lot depends on the employment number tomorrow as a strong reading will send the dollar higher, stocks and gold lower if I'm guessing right.  But that really doesn't matter as we will have to stick to the technicals.  No doubt we'll be oversold enough for me on weakness tomorrow to take a look at the SPY March calls.  That will be the game plan.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow as all eyes will be on the market reaction to the jobs report.

A negative session today as the Dow fell 133 points on above average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Orderly selling, so there was no sense of panic.  But the short term technical indicators have rolled over and they're not oversold yet.  RUT was weak today and it's leading the way down in my humble opinion.  I'll be keeping an eye out on that.  If we continue lower into Monday, that's the time I'll try the SPY March calls for a short term trade.  Maybe even on Friday if we drop on the employment report.  That should be the next catalyst one way or the other.  It's too late for the puts here as I was a week early on that idea.  GE got clobbered and lost 3/4 on very heavy volume.  Looks like some people were aware of the bad news yesterday.  I'm still a believer longer term for this stock.  Gold and the US dollar were little changed.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost almost 1/2.  Volume was good.  I did place an order for the GDX April calls overnight.  It was close to getting filled when I canceled it.  We are oversold for the gold shares but there relative performance vs. gold today was horrible.  My thinking is that they have lower to go, following the overall market.  The up trend line now for GDX appears in serious jeopardy as well as perhaps the gold shares will follow gold itself in breaking that line.  Of course things could turn around tomorrow.  We are oversold here for the gold shares and I do want to try the calls going forward.  The question is when?  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility has creeped back up but it isn't really anything dramatic.  That says to me that any decline here will be mild but who knows?  Not overbought there yet but will be at the top of the Bollinger bands with another day or two like today.  I am going to wait until at least Friday to try the SPY March calls if I do.  Perhaps the reaction to the jobs report will give me a chance.  I also may indeed pass on this idea because at the moment the pricing on the SPY March puts says that we are heading lower.  The short term techncials for SPY are not close to oversold yet either.  Perhaps we're heading for 2750 on the S&P, which is the 200 day moving average.  That would be a logical place to start looking at the calls.  Not that the stock market is logical in the general sense.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower in last nights trade.  Tomorrow will probably be a wait and see session ahead of the employment report but we'll keep an eye on the overseas markets tonight. 

A sideways session after yesterdays fireworks as the Dow lost 13 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Not much to say about today as we simply moved back and forth.  No real news to report either.  Waiting on Fridays employment report.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment but I will say if we continue to drift lower I'll look at the calls for expiration week.  GE lost 1/2 on very heavy volume.  The up trend line from the end of December has been broken there.  Gold was up a buck as the US dollar continued higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Still holding on to the 50 day moving average and the recent up trend line for GDX.  The short term technical indicators are oversold but I just can't bring myself to buy the calls here.  However if there was any time to give it a try, now is it.  I may place an order overnight but it will require some downside to get filled.  My hesitation includes the fact that gold has broken its up trend line and if it breaks $1280 there is no support.  Also support for silver comes in below $15 and we are not there yet.  The weak seasonal time period for the precious metals is also a factor but that hasn't worked for me lately.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX calmed down today but that can change in a flash as we saw on Monday.  Rut looks like it's starting to roll over.  TRAN already has.  Those are not positive signs.  The S&P for the moat part is just moving sideways here.  So I suppose I will be careful here for a change and perhaps take a closer look at the gold shares overnight.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines and go from there.

Volatility returned today as the Dow fell  206 points on good volume.  It was a one day reversal to the downside.  The advance/declines were only negative though as the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The Dow was off over 400 points during the session.  The market break that I positioned myself last week finally appeared today.  Obviously frustrating for me from a trading stand point.  We'll have to see where things go from here because the market did stage quite a comeback.  Perhaps sideways is the way we go here for a while but that's a guess as usual.  The short term technical indicators have finally started to roll over now.  GE was up 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  These indexes both opened lower and closed higher for one day reversals to the upside.  They also bounced off of their 50 day moving averages along with their rising trend lines.  All of this makes perfect technical sense but I did not place an order for the gold share calls today.  Gold has broken its up trend line and I'm wondering if the gold shares will follow.  The gold indices did hold up well today despite the loss in gold and that is bullish.  But I'm inclined to wait here to place a trade on GDX due to the poor seasonal time frame at the moment for gold.  However I do feel that the gold shares calls for April will be my next trade.  That's my call at the moment.  Mentally I'm in the frustration mode as the big drop today was what I've been waiting for.  The VIX popped up to almost 17 and made it to the top range of the Bollinger band on a daily basis.  Is there more volatility coming?  It would appear so as one day extreme usually leads to more price movement.  However I'm simply on the sidelines now for the SPY.  I think the next best trade here may be the breakout above the resistance at 282 if it occurs on heavy volume.  Not sure when that will occur but there's only 9 days left in the March option cycle.  Plus after today it looks like things could be ready to turn lower if the sideways trend doesn't hold up.  Asia was higher as the trade deal looks to be just about done.  Europe was steady overnight.  We'll see if the volatility ramps up again tomorrow.  

The Dow took off to the upside on the open and managed to hang on to a gain of 110 points on heavy volume.  We were up well over 200 points in the first half hour.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving sideways in my opinion.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  I had the feeling things were about to get higher and that was right for a change.  My SPY March puts were stopped out for a bet less than a 25% loss.  Saw that coming too.  My inability to do the right thing at the right time was my downfall.  This trade had to be exited yesterday at the latest.  The market doesn't care and you have to move on.  I cannot continue to take losses though.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold took a drop today, the futures shed over $20 and closed below $1300.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  March is the seasonally weak period for gold and it appears that got started early this year.  GDX is almost at the up trend line that began last November and its 50 day moving average.  We are also now short term oversold but it feels like the gold shares have more room to run on the downside after todays price action.  However if you're bullish on gold, which I am, this would be the logical spot to try the calls again.  I'll ponder this idea over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated from the losing SPY March put trade.  I had a profit that turned into a loss and I knew that I should have bailed out of the trade.  I'm beginning to start to think that perhaps the SPY moves too fast for my meager brain as I'm getting older.  Or maybe I just can't do the right thing when it's needed.  Whatever it is I'll need to regroup and move on.  The market doesn't wait for anyone.  It looks like after the price action today that 2800 will no longer be a barrier and we will be moving higher despite the constant overbought condition of the market.  The converging Bollinger bands on the VIX now seem to be signaling that the big move will be to the upside and that the VIX will simply continue to head lower.  That's the message I'm getting today.  I'll recheck things over the weekend.  There's still two weeks left in the March option cycle.  I'm not sure if I'll try the SPY options again here but we'll see.  I'm leaning towards trying GDX again since I was successful there the last time.  But that really doesn't mean anything going forward.  Tough game but that's just the way it is.  Europe and Asia were both higher as money worldwide is flowing back into stocks.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another downside day but no volatility to speak of as the Dow fell 69 points on end of the month heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  And so has the market for the past couple of weeks.  My SPY March puts are still showing a slight profit but I get the feeling if I don't sell them soon, I'll be getting stopped out for a loss.  The market has the feel of a consolidation without a real decline before heading back to the upside.  That is what it seems like to me despite the constant short term overbought condition of the major averages.  GE was off 1/2 on good volume.  Gold was off a few bucks while the US dollar was a bit higher again.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on lighter volume.  Not completely oversold for the gold shares but we could get there next week.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  As I've already said the Bollinger bands on the VIX are converging and that means something big in the near future.  I'm thinking it may be a strong move higher through 2800 on good volume and the bulls would be off and running if that's the case.  But that's just a guess because things could go either way.  The problem with being short here is that we've had plenty of chances to sell off this week but it just hasn't happened.  Perhaps we'll just move sideways but that will suck out the time premium in my SPY options and leave me with another loss.  It still looks like yesterday morning was the time to get out of this trade barring some unforeseen drop in the next couple of sessions.  We've got the beginning of the month tomorrow and that could mean some money floes into equities.  We'll see.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The Dow fell 72 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is starting to move sideways but has not rolled over.  The Dow was off over 175 early but made up ground throughout the session.  Ditto for most of the major stock averages.  My SPY March puts had a decent profit in the morning but gave it all back.  In retrospect I should have sold these things today.  The price action today was bullish as the market sold off but then found buyers when it needed to.  The NASDAQ and RUT turned positive and that's a plus for the bulls.  The short term technical indicators are still overbought but we are getting sideways activity and not downside corrective movement.  GE gained almost another 1/4 and the volume was heavy.  Gold was off slightly today and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume was average.  Waiting for an oversold reading here and we're getting there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Bollinger bands on the VIX are getting close as they contract and that portrays a big move coming for the stock market.  Which way is the question and when?  There's still over 2 weeks left in the March option cycle but with todays price action my puts may not last.  We'll get GDP tomorrow and that should be a market mover one way or the other.  I get the feeling things are about to head higher here but I hope I'm wrong for the SPYs trade sake.  However hope is not a viable trading strategy.  I guess I'll wait and see how things go tomorrow and then decide what to do.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A day of bouncing around but not really doing much.  The Dow fell 33 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The Fed testimony was basically a non event.  The continued overbought condition for stocks lives on.  My SPY March puts are still showing a slight profit but the market appears directionless at the moment.  We are hesitating at 2800 on the S&P but that doesn't mean that we have to move down.  I'm not sure how much longer I can hold on to this trade.  GE gained 1/4 on good volume.  Gold was flat but the US dollar was lower on the day.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  They did finish well above the lows for the session.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Plenty of time left on the March option cycle but I'll need to see a drop here shortly or this trade won't work.  Perhaps GDP on Thursday will get things going.  RUT has a negative daily candlestick pattern so perhaps maybe we'll finally get things going lower.  Not a lot to say about today s price action.  Early selling was met with buying.  We did drop again in the final half hour and that is bearish.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The Dow begins the week with a gain of 60 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index continues to move higher.  The US has extended the deadline to get a deal done with China.  This was expected but the market did rally over 200 points in the morning.  The rest of the day was spent digesting the news.  My SPY March puts were stopped out but last night I did place another open order at a higher strike price for the same trade.  It got filled before I was stopped out on the earlier trade.  So I took a 25% loss on the Friday roll up trade and now I have a better strike price and the trade is showing a small profit.  My concern here is that spike in the VIX today and the market moving higher.  That usually means that there are more gains ahead.  However we are still overbought on the short term, so this trade may actually have a chance to be successful.  We'll see.  GE climbed 2/3 on extremely heavy volume.  It was up almost a point more than that today on news of selling off one of its divisions.  There's plenty of overhead resistance for this stock at $12.  Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  We are about to enter a seasonally weak period for gold that lasts around a month.  I'll be looking for an oversold condition in the gold shares to try the calls again there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So for now we've got the US/China tariff tiff out of the way.  Next up is a couple of days of Fed chairman Powells testimony to congress.  I don't expect any surprises there.  There's also the Trump/Kim summit in the middle of the week.  Trumps old attorney is scheduled to testify before congress on Wednesday as well but that's been postponed before.  The first look at 4th quarter GDP is out on Thursday.  So there will be some economic news.  Right now I'm just day to day with the current trade.  The stop loss order is in.  The ideal scenario would be a drop tomorrow to roll over the technical indicators.  Wishful thinking there.  But both RUT and TRAN were lower today but not by much.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  China roared a head on the tariff news and out performed all the other markets.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Back to the upside to close out the week as the Dow gained 181 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The market rallied in the final hour and that's bullish.  I did place an open order overnight for the SPY March puts and it was filled in the morning.  The market continues to rally and even though I had a stop loss order in, I decided to try and move up to a better strike price if I could get filled for about the same price that I paid in the morning.  Right near the close I was able to purchase some SPY March puts at a closer to the money strike price and I did.  I then sold the morning position at the market for a loss of less than 20%.  My rational was if the trade does work the extra profit form the better strike price will more than make up for the small loss.  I now have a stop loss order in on the later trade and we'll see how it goes going forward.  Still overbought and staying that way but that won't last forever.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  The heavy volume that we saw for weeks on GE has dried up.  Gold was up $5 on the futures and the US dollar was basically unchanged.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So the next trade is on after an early in the day failed attempt.  Nothing says the market has to move down here and all attempts at the puts lately have failed.  We are less than 8 points away form 2800 on the S&P 500 and that was the level that I was looking for to get short.  So yes, I may be early and the market may just cut through 2800 and keep going higher.  The stop loss order is in so if I'm wrong here it won't hurt too much.  I'll keep an eye on the weekend headlines as I recheck the charts.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Finally a bit of selling today as the Dow fell 103 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  No news to speak of but the economic data came in a little weak.  I did place an order for the SPY March puts but it didn't get filled so I canceled it.  We are still short term overbought even with todays decline.  I may decide to try this trade again tomorrow before the weekend.  I almost chased it here today but did not.  The deadline for an agreement between the US and China is approaching.  Any kind of news on this, one way or the other, will produce some kind of market reaction.  It is the big risk that one must endure here if a position is put on.  I still favor the puts because this rally has been practically straight up for so long.  But that doesn't mean it can't go further.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold fell over $20 on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU lost 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was good.  The gold shares held up pretty well despite the drop in the metal itself.  That's bullish.  I'm looking out to the GDX April calls as we move along here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market rallied in the final half hour and that's a plus for the bulls.  I not really sure if I should wait for the S&P to get to 2800 or simply buy the puts now.  I'll check the indicators again tonight.  Waiting on the sidelines is always an option as well.  I did expect weakness here and we got it.  The question is whether this is all we get or is it the start of a long awaited pause in the rally?  Answer that correctly and you can probably make yourself some money.  I'll check the charts and go from there.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. 

The Dow rose 63 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The Fed minutes came and went.  We're still overbought on the short term as we have been.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal for a big move within the next two days yesterday.  We'll see if it happens tomorrow.  I did place an open order for the SPY March puts but canceled it late in the day.  I may try this idea again if we get some upside tomorrow morning.  There isn't much else to say as we plod through the holiday shortened week.  GE lost a few cents on light volume.  Gold was off a couple bucks after its nice rise yesterday.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on good volume but did finish off of their highs for the session.  Money is flowing into gold but I'll wait for a pullback or consolidation before trying the calls here again.  There's also a potential negative divergence on the daily RSI for GDX but that could fix itself with more near term upside.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Getting close to 2800 on the S&P 500 but certainly not there yet.  To me, that's the logical spot to try the March puts.  Overbought and staying that way, which is bullish.  But it has been that way for too long in my humble opinion.  Yes a headline from the US/China tariff talks could get things going either way in a hurry.  However I do feel the straight up nature of this advance is starting to wane and I'd like to be short when they head for the exits.  I could be wrong but I'm willing to take the risk here.  Perhaps tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the headlines tonight. 

We came off of the highs today but the Dow managed to finish with a gain of 8 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow but also came off of the highs for the session in the final hour.  I'm still considering the SPY March puts on strength tomorrow or Thursday.  We're still short term overbought and that hasn't changed for weeks.  It won't last forever.  I'd like to see the S&P get to 2800 before trying the puts but don't know if that is in the cards.  Trying to stay patient here because the strength of this rally cannot be denied.  GE gained a few cent and the volume was light.  Gold rallied today as the US dollar was lower.  The gold futures gained twenty bucks to start the week.  The XAU climbed 3 1/8, while GDX gained 3/4.  Volume was very heavy.  Money is finding its way into the gold shares.  We had a rise and then a flag formation on the gold shares.  Today proved that was a continuation pattern as the gold shares broke above the previous high.  I would not chase things here.  I'll wait for the next consolidation or drop before trying the April GDX calls perhaps.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Nothing has changed for stocks over the weekend.  The rally lives on and selling doesn't last for now.  We'll get some economic data this week, highlighted by the Fed beige book tomorrow.  Of course the market will still turn on any rumor coming out of the US/China tariff talks.  So we're still at the mercy of headline risk either way for now.  I'm inclined to try the SPY puts if for no other reason than the fact that the market is long overdue for some kind of drop since the beginning of the year.  It's now past mid-February.  I suppose I'll wait for the reaction to the Fed minutes and go from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Right back to the upside for option expiration as the Dow soared 443 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  It appears that all selling is met with buyers.  We're still short term overbought with no end in sight for that condition.  But we know that this can't go on forever.  Again, no real news to speak of just more US/China tariff rumors of no substance.  It doesn't matter.  There is money to be invested and it's going into stocks.  Yes I'm still considering the SPY March puts but at this rate it doesn't look like a good idea.  I'll go over my work this long weekend and take it from there.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold climbed $9 on the futures as the US dollar was bit lower again.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added almost 1/3.  Volume was pretty light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed below 15 and has been oversold for weeks.  It simply implies more gains to come for stocks.  It is pretty amazing but at some point something has to give.  Knowing when that point is presents the challenge.  Will 2800 provide the stopping point for the S&P or are we just going to continue to move higher?  We are right at the 200 day moving averages for some of the stock indices and have broken through there on others.  The market is acting as though there's no end in sight for the rally.  I should probably wait for some type of negative divergence before trying the puts but sometimes there are none.  Plenty to think about this weekend.  I do think that it is too late for the calls now.  The run up into the February expiration wasn't a surprise.  Can we repeat the same thing in March?  Stay tuned.  Perhaps we are simply going to continue the run and make new all time highs.  I think when you start hearing that tossed around, then it will be a good time to try the SPY puts.  Just a guess as usual.  Asia was down to finish the week and Europe was higher.  A long weekend to try and come up with a plan for next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow fell 103 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  Weak retail sales was the supposed culprit for the drop but it wasn't a stock market rout by any means.  The overall market fared better, with the NASDAQ showing a gain.  The overbought condition of the market will not last forever and perhaps today is the start of a pause in the rally.  I'm still in favor of some SPY March puts at some point.  But for now they are highly priced with so much time premium left in the option prices.  Ideally if the market holds up here I'd like to try them next week.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was good.  Gold finished little changed on the day and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a day to go before a holiday weekend in the US.  The VIX had a small spike at the open but came back after that.  Perhaps I'm waiting too long to get some SPY puts here but the prices once again are not to my liking.  If we can hold up here for a week, I'll look to purchase then.  I'm also keeping an eye on GDX for another call trade but I'd like to see it get back to 21.5 along with an oversold reading to try here again.  We are halfway through February and the seasonal pattern for gold is bearish in March.  So perhaps this is a trade for another time.  We'll see.  Asia was generally lower and Europe mixed last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The Dow added 117 points today on OK volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  the summation index is still moving up.  No news to speak of but the positive expiration bias remains in effect.  We're still short term overbought any way that you look at it.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  I'm still looking at the SPY March puts but I'm not exactly in a hurry here.  That could change of course because we've been over extended for a while.  So we'll see.  GE was up over 1/3 and volume was good.  Gold was a bit lower as the US dollar resumed its climb.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on better volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is really just kind of a waiting game here for me, trying to decide whether to own some SPY puts before the long holiday weekend or not.  I think that one thing we can be sure of is that the decline of last year is over.  We've surpassed the down trend lines and broken above the Fibonacci retracements.  Any decline would probably be short and shallow but that doesn't mean that you can't make some money there.  Just as getting the SPY February calls on Monday would have made money despite the market already being very overbought.  I'll go over things again tonight and take it from there.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

The market took off to the upside today as the Dow climbed 372 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Looks like a deal to keep the US government open will happen.  I certainly missed the SPY February call trade that I was looking for by a day.  Perhaps if I was paying better attention yesterday I would have pulled the trigger on that trade.  But it was missed and it's on to the next idea.  Looks like I'll have to sit on the sidelines for now until the technical indicators line up.  I am looking at the SPY March puts now.  The market is overbought and has been for weeks.  This is a condition that will eventually reverse.  When is the question and by how much?  For now the positive expiration week bias should last the next couple of days.  GE was off a nickel and the volume is lighter than it's been  Gold finished flat on the day despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU had a fractional loss, while GDX was flat.  Volume was very light.  I did think about trying the GDX February calls today for a very short term trade since Barrick Gold will report earnings tomorrow.  But that seemed more like a bet than an actual trading idea so I held off.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Missing trades is part of the game but that doesn't make it any easier to swallow.  At least my ideas are trending in the right direction for a change.  Doesn't mean much if you can't capitalize though.  Now the hard part of waiting for the next set up is here.  Long holiday weekend coming up and I'm not exactly sure if I want to be short going into that.  Right now it looks like waiting until Wednesday or Thursday of next week to try the puts is the best scenario.  But will the market cooperate?  It rarely does.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight as money is finding its way back into stocks around the globe.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 53 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Both the NASDAQ and the S&P were higher on the session.  I would still like to get some SPY February calls tomorrow on weakness but it doesn't look like the market will cooperate.  The futures are already up 14 points on the S&P as it appears that a deal will be struck to keep the US government open  Friday was the deadline for a deal there.  Perhaps I should simply buy some calls at the open but I do not think that this is something I want to chase.  I guess I'll have to come up with another idea.  GE was up almost 1/4 but the volume was lighter.  Gold dropped $7 on the futures as the US dollar continues to move higher.  The XAU was off almost a point, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was average.  The gold shares have held up rather well despite a rise in the dollar.  It's something to keep an eye on.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still short term overbought for the major stock indices and that doesn't look like it's going to change.  Perhaps my next trade will be the SPY puts but I'll have to go out to March if that's the case.  Only 4 days left in the February option cycle and we're coming up on a holiday weekend as well.  It looks like I'll have to remain on the sidelines though.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.  Asia and Europe were higher on Monday.  It looks like markets around the globe are going to rally tonight as the futures are higher throughout.  It looks like the US shutdown deal has a wide reach.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A sell off and a comeback today for most of the stock indices.  The Dow fell 63 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still moving higher but again not as strong as it was.  The Dow was off almost 300 points in the morning but buying came in especially in the final half hour.  The Dow is hanging around its 200 day moving average.  The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ managed to eek out small gains.  I'm not exactly bearish here as whatever decline we get here will be short lived and shallow in my view.  I still favor the SPY February calls on weakness early next week.  Tuesday would be my preferred day to purchase but it may already be too late.  I'll consider my choices over the weekend.  GE lost 1/4 on continues heavy volume.  Getting some selling here as you can't expect any stock to just keep going straight up.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was only slightly higher.  The XAU was up a point and GDX rose 1/3 on good volume.  The flag pattern here on the daily chart for GDX may still be intact with a potential run to 23 in the works before expiration.  That's a guess on my part.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I think that the game plan for next week is set and it's just a matter of time to see what happens.  My guess is that things will be positive for stocks with option expiration at the end of the week.  Barring some headline that changes things of course.  We are still short term overbought for stocks but that doesn't mean that we can't move higher next week.  We should see more economic data released along with what's left of earnings.  We'll also probably find out if the US government is going to close again.  A positive resolution there should move stocks higher.  So we'll see.  I certainly don't want to get confident about anything.  Europe and Asia were both lower to end the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Finally saw some downside today as the Dow fell 220 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up but not with the same gusto as before.  The market did finish well off of its lows for the session.  I don't think that this is the beginning of some huge downside move to retest the lows of December.  I did try to get some puts beforehand in the past few days but to no avail.  My next idea is to try the SPY February calls if things go according to plan.  I would not purchase them until the beginning of next week if we do simply move sideways here or trade a little lower.  The US/China tariffs reared their ugly head today and that was the excuse for the decline.  GE lost 3/8 on the now usual heavy volume.  Gold finished little changed but the US dollar continued its rise.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  I think that I'll wait for gold to get oversold again before trying something there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked today but finished well off of the worst levels.  The Dow was off about 390 at one point.  The fact that things didn't completely fall apart is a plus.  There's still plenty of money to go around it seems.  Now there could be another headline tonight and we could drop 500 points in a flash but I don't thank that is going to happen.  The internals of the summation index are very positive.  That usually means that any weakness that's seen won't amount to much.  We've got option expiration week coming and its usual positive bias.  If we can hang around for the next couple of days, I'll be looking at the SPY February calls on Tuesday.  I expect to see some strength in equities after that.  However we all know that the market rarely cooperates.  Japan was lower overnight but the rest of Asia that was open fared better.  Europe was lower led by the DAX.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Just a bit of weakness today as the Dow fell 21 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues to move up.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow but it feels more like a pause on the way to higher prices.  No real news to speak of.  We're still short term overbought for the S&P.  I did place an overnight order for some SPY February puts in case we got a rally today but we didn't.  I've canceled the order.  Not sure what my next move here will be.  I suppose I'll wait and see if we higher from here.  Perhaps then I'll try the puts again.  GE was off over 1/8 on the usual heavy volume.  Gold fell eight bucks on the futures as the US dollar continues higher.  The XAU lost about a point, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was light.  GDX is still in a flag formation after the recent run up.  That usually is a continuation pattern.  We'll see if it works this time around.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a sideways day today really with not much price movement.  Volatility has disappeared for now really.  The VIX is at fifteen and change.  I still believe that we've had a five wave upside pattern for the S&P and that we are nearing the end of the rise.  Combine that with the overbought condition on the short term for stocks and I do think that the SPY puts are in order.  Now I don't think that a dramatic decline is about to take place but I do think that the possibility to make some profit is there.  Again, the entry will be key and getting out rather quickly is probably the best route to take.  So if we do see some strength tomorrow I may give this idea another try.  What was open in Asia was higher last night and a mixed bag from Europe.  We'll keep an eye on the trading overnight. 

The beat goes on as the Dow gained 172 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  No end in sight for this rally as the V bottom cannot be denied at this point.  I was stopped out of my latest SPY February put trade for another roughly 20% loss.  The same conditions persist, overbought and staying there.  That said I may try this trade again tomorrow against my better judgment.  We'll see.  The VIX has sunk below the 16.5 level and still no selling.  The SPY to me looks like it has completed a five wave up move from the lows in December.  Yet we see not even a hint of a decline.  This won't last forever.  But will it change in the near term if I attempt to trade the puts again?  GE was up 3/8 and the volume remains heavy.  Anybody who bought in the single digits will be pleased in the longer term.  Gold was flat on the session with the US dollar a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  These indexes appear ready to move higher after a small consolidation.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Overbought and drifting higher for the major stock indices led by the small caps.  That is bullish but it's not a freight train.  Getting long in the tooth here I believe.  But that doesn't mean things get run up into the February expiration like they did in January.  We've still got earnings coming out.  Trump speaks tonight with the state of the union.  Powell speaks tomorrow in some kind of town hall meeting.  So there are potential market moving events as the US/China tariff talks have moved to the back burner until the end of the month.  I'll check things out overnight and decide if I want to try the SPY February puts again tomorrow.  The longer this thing stay overbought the better chance the puts have of working if the entry can be timed properly.  No small feat there.  Japan was slightly lower as most Asian markets are on holiday.  Europe was mostly higher.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Another day another gain as the Dow rose 175 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to move up.  The short term overbought condition persists and the market keeps climbing.  I think at this point it's safe to say that the V bottom is for real and there will be no retest.  That said, I did try the SPY February puts this morning.  When it appeared that this was obviously the wrong choice, I sold what I had purchased for a 20% loss.  As the market moved higher I went to a higher strike price for the puts and tried this idea again.  I'm holding on overnight with a slight loss at the moment.  The stop loss order has been placed.  If this does get stopped out tomorrow I guess I'll forget about getting short.  GOOG reports after the bell and that should drive things early tomorrow morning.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume remains heavy.  Gold fell five bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on average volume.  Money continues to seek out the gold shares here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  It seems like I'm still married to this idea that the market has to drop here.  Overbought for days now and we've broken through resistance but I still can't let go of the idea that things need to take a break on the upside.  We're just about at the 200 day moving average for the S&P.  But the small stocks have been acting well here and I seem to be ignoring that.  Perhaps I'm not really listening to the technical indicators as I should.  Maybe I'm just anxious for another winning trade since I just had one.  Whatever the case, I will head to the sidelines if the current SPY put trade gets stopped out tomorrow as it appears it will be barring some unforeseen development overnight.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A mixed bag to end the week as the Dow gained 64 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The NASDAQ was lower on the session.  My SPY February puts were stopped out for a 30% loss.  I can live with that.  I still think that we're nearing some kind of top here but I could be wrong.  I placed another order for some SPY puts but then canceled it.  I decided to look things over again this weekend and go from there.  Overbought and staying that way for the major averages.  The jobs report was better than expected but the response on Wall street was muted.  We are at a logical spot for some resistance to take place.  However with only two weeks to go in the February option cycle the timing of any trade will have to be spot on.  I'll consider my options over the weekend.  GE was pretty much flat on the session but the volume remains heavy.  Gold was off a couple bucks and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  Although overbought it feels like there's still some upside room left for the gold shares.  Perhaps running into the option expiration on the 15th.  That's a guess for sure.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Another good week for the stock market as the rally from the end of December still has legs.  I think we're due for a rest but the market can stay overbought longer than you can remain solvent it's been said.  Looking back I regret not holding on to the GDX calls still.  But looking back is only good for study and not for regrets.  I do feel good about simply taking the loss on yesterdays trade even though I got in at the spot I thought was right.  Perhaps the V bottom is what we've seen and it certainly appears that way now.  We've also just broken through the declining tops line of the S&P with good volume.  That is certainly bullish.  So there will be plenty to think about over the weekend.  Asia was slightly lower and Europe higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow was off a bit but the overall market soared higher.  The most watched index dropped 15 points on very heavy end of the month volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The S&P 500 was up over 20 and the NASDAQ gained close to 100.  It appears that the S&P is breaking through the down trend line on good volume.  That would be bullish and it appears that is the case.  Overbought and staying that way in the rally.  After the bell Amazon reported good earnings so it looks like we'll go even higher tomorrow.  But we do have the jobs report to contend with but it may simply be a non event in this ride.  I did purchase some SPY February puts today.  SPY got to the level of 270 that I was looking for.  The VIX also made it down to the 16.5 level and its 200 day moving average.  So this would be the area for the VIX to bounce if what I'm looking for is correct.  If not, we'll move higher and the put trade will be a loss.  It's looking like that's the case at the moment.  If so I'll take the loss and move on.  GE rallied on the earnings report today and rose a little over a buck on extremely heavy volume.  Gold moved higher again as well with the futures up almost $10.  The US dollar had a slight gain.  The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX added 1/2.  Volume was good.  Overbought and staying that way for the gold shares as well.  Obviously I should have held on at least another day on the GDX call trade.  Money left on the table there and it looks like the rally will continue.  There is plenty of overhead resistance here for the gold shares but we are cutting right through it at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much news coming out of the US/China talks the past couple of days.  We'll see if we get anything overnight.  It looks like the past week or so was a consolidation flag for the S&P as we have broken out above it on good volume.  The 200 day moving average would be the next logical area of resistance at 2740 for the S&P and around 272 on the SPY.  At the rate that we're going we'll get there tomorrow.  I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines but it looks like I'll get stopped out of the SPY February put trade tomorrow morning.  Europe and Asia followed the US higher overnight.  We'll see what the jobs report has to say and finish out the trading week tomorrow.

The market powered higher today after the dovish Fed speak as the Dow climbed 435 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading up.  Overbought and staying that way for the major stock indices.  The SPY is about to break its down trend line that began last October.  However there is still plenty of overhead resistance, including the 200 day moving average at 271.  I'm still inclined to try the SPY February puts here if we continue higher near term.  We have been overbought for quite a length of time.  The VIX is practically within a point of the 16.5 level that is my signal to short.  Now of course I could be wrong here because if we get some good news out of the US/China talks the market should take off again.  I'll consider what to do this evening and go from there.  GE was up twenty cents on good volume.  Earnings tomorrow will dictate the near term there.  Gold rallied on the Fed with the futures gaining ten bucks.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up a point and GDX added 1/4.  Volume was good as money continues to make its way into the gold shares.  Short term overbought here but it could stay that way.  We did finish off of the best levels here.  I sold my GDX February calls.  I didn't get the best price of the session as GDX climbed to 22.5.  I did manage a nice gain of over 400% though for the trade.  My fear is that I've sold too early because there is still over two weeks to go in the February option cycle.  But at least it was a winner for a change and I certainly needed that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Everything is now looking up for the market with the Fed out of the way.  Of course that could all change with tomorrows headlines but right now it feels like there's another leg up here for stocks.  It still looks like we've had a V shape recovery in prices and there will be no retest of the lows.  The Dow is poised to break above its 200 day moving average tomorrow.  Perhaps the SPY puts are the wrong idea here but if the VIX gets to 16.5 I'm giving them a shot.  I'll also be keeping an eye on the GDX because it looks like the rally there is for real.  Waiting for the next oversold level to trade long there again.  Europe was generally higher and Asia mixed overnight.  I would expect to see the foreign markets rally on the heels of the US.  We'll see if there are any developments form the China/US talks overnight. 

A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 54 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow led down by the NASDAQ.  The VIX was slightly higher today.  Waiting on the Fed I guess but I don't expect any surprises there.  I could be wrong.  Two days of US/China talks begin tomorrow.  I'm still leaning towards the SPY February puts but I'm not in a rush to buy them.  GE lost a few cents on good volume.  Gold was up $7 on the futures while the US dollar was just a touch higher.  Gold is clearly now above the 1300 level.  The XAU added 1 7/8 and GDX rose 1/2.  Volume picked up a bit.  Clearly short term overbought for the gold shares now.  However in rallies the short term condition remains as the stocks move higher.  Is that what we are about to see here?  My GDX February calls are solidly in the black with a nice profit.  Perhaps I should simply take it here.  We are at the near term resistance level of 22.  Something to consider overnight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Lots of news and announcements for the rest of the week for the market to digest.  I suppose what I'd really like to do is wait for the VIX to get to 16.5 and then get the SPY puts.  Not sure if I have the patience or discipline to do that but I should.  The NASDAQ daily indicators have clearly rolled over but the other indices including RUT not so much.  I guess I'll wait for one more push to the upside for stocks and look foe the SPY puts there.  If stocks just drop from here I at least have the GDX trade to fall back on.  Never easy in this game.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trading.  We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow and keep an eye on the market reaction.

We began the week with a thud as the Dow fell 209 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  Earnings disappointments were the reason for today fall but there's a lot on the plate this week.  We've got the Fed, US/China talks, the jobs report and long awaited other economic data coming out.  It should be quite a week going either way.  We're still short term overbought but the short term technical indicators for the major stock averages are starting to roll over.  I did place an overnight order for the SPY February puts but it wasn't filled.  Might try again tomorrow.  GE lost about 1/4 on good volume.  We've been going sideways since the run up from the lows.  Hopefully it's a bullish flag formation.  Earnings due on Thursday.  Gold and the US dollar were both flat today.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  My GDX February calls are doing nicely so far.  Getting short term overbought here though.  Plus we're at resistance of 21.5 for GDX.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  I'd still like to see a run up to around 270 on SPY before getting short.  The market may not cooperate though.  The VIX spiked up today but did finish below its highest intra-day levels.  Would love to see it get to 16.5 but this may not occur either.  I'm trying to remain patient for now because it is such a huge week for data and announcements.  Markets could swing big in either direction.  For now I'll keep an eye on things and see how it goes.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Back to upside for the Dow on the hopes that the US government stalemate is over.  The most watched index rose 184 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to move higher.  Getting closer to the resistance at 270 for the SPY and closer to the VIX level of 16.5 which is my threshold to get short.  Now this may not be the right idea but technically it is where you take a shot.  We'll see if we get there next week.  GE was up over 1/3 on good volume.  Earnings due here next week so we should see some movement then.  Which way is the question as always.  Gold had a stellar day as the futures jumped over twenty dollars.  The US dollar got slammed.  The XAU gained 2 1/2, while GDX rose 2/3.  Volume was slightly above average.  My GDX February calls are in the black.  If GDX can get through 21.5, I'm guessing we'll make it to 22.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've got the Fed next week but it's assumed there won't be any surprises coming there.  Economic data could start to be released if the government reopens as anticipated.  Supposedly a three week reopening has been agreed to.  But in this day and age, I'll believe it when I see it.  There's also some US/China tariff meetings scheduled for next week as well.  So there will be plenty to watch but most of all I'll keep an eye on the technical indicators and see if they reach the action points.  However I will certainly be double checking my work over the weekend.  We are still short term overbought on the major stock indices.  Gold and the gold shares however have moved up from being oversold.  Not overbought here yet but heading in that direction.  It looks like the GDX February call trade could work but we all know that market goes where it wants.  Gold did close above the 1300 level on the futures and that's a plus for the bulls.  Resistance comes in at 1320.  Plenty of charts to go over this weekend to get ready to close out the month.  Europe and Asia moved higher with the exception of England again.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

More back and forth today as the Dow fell 22 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  We're still short term overbought for the S&P 500.  Nothing has really changed.  I'm waiting for 270 on the SPY in order to try the puts there.  Perhaps we can get there at some point next week.  We're still waiting for some kind of settlement to reopen the US government and the market reaction to that.  Should be positive and we'll go from there.  No economic reports until the government gets back to work.  GE gained a nickel on good volume.  Gold was flat but the US dollar was higher.  The XAU was off a touch and GDX was flat.  Volume was light.  No interest in gold here one way or the other.  The gold shares remain oversold so I'll continue to hold on to the GDX February call trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A short holiday week and we'll finish it out tomorrow.  Still a lot of earnings to come out.  We're still at the mercy of the latest China/US trade talk story.  Plus the US government shutdown soap opera.  I still favor some downside at resistance because there is a lot of it right above where we are.  Patient for now.  Gold is holding the 1280 level but a break there would be negative as there is no support until around 1260.  We'll see how it goes.  Asia was higher as was Europe with the exception of the FTSE.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Back to the upside for the Dow as it gained 171 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow as the advance/declines suggest.  A weak volume rally up to around 270 on the SPY would be the ideal scenario for getting short here.  I'm not sure that will exactly happen but we can hope.  The VIX moved back down today and if it gets to 16.5, that's the signal to get the puts as well.  It is simply a matter of waiting and checking which options to buy if and when we get there.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold fell a buck and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU and GDX had very minor fractional gains on very light volume.  My open order for the GDX February calls was filled so I'm in the next trade.  It is showing a tiny profit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market moved back and forth today as it tries to make up its mind where to go next.  Still plenty of earnings to come and the eventual resolution of the US government shutdown.  I'll still be looking for small run up to 270 on the SPY and then go from there.  We could also stall right here and roll over as well.  If that's the case then it will be too late for me to get short.  There's also the chance that the market just keeps going higher here as well but that isn't the outcome that I'm favoring at the moment.  GDX and gold are both oversold here but as we all know, anything can happen in this game.  Europe and Asia were slightly lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the headlines tomorrow.

A negative start to the trading week as the Dow fell 301 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were a little over 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues higher.  Volatility returned today but it doesn't mean that this is the beginning of some protracted downturn.  It could be but we don't know yet.  Many times the trading day after expiration is the reverse of the price action on expiration.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week progresses.  Of course today was the kind of price action I was expecting last week but the market simply didn't cooperate.  If we get back to the 270 level on the SPY, I'll try the February puts.  GE lost forty cents on good volume.  Gold was up a bit and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  I did place an order for some GDX February calls as we have reached short term oversold here.  I'm leaving the order in overnight.  Not a lot of money involved here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Selling today as what were hopes last week with regards to the Chine/US trade deal turned into fears over the weekend.  We're at the mercy of headline risk more so than usual until something concrete comes out of this mess.  SPY managed to bounce off of its 50 day moving average and that's a plus.  Still short term overbought here though.  I guess I'm hoping for a move near 270 and we'll see what happens from there.  It would be great to see the VIX make it back down to 16.5 but that looks like it's out of the question after today.  Plenty of time in the February option cycle.  Perhaps I'll wait for the US government shutdown to end and fade the rally off of that.  Many scenarios to deal with as we go forward here.  We'll see if we get any follow through selling tomorrow and take it from there.  Europe and Asia were lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the trading activity tonight.