Wednesday, March 06, 2019
A negative session today as the Dow fell 133 points on above average volume. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now heading lower. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. Orderly selling, so there was no sense of panic. But the short term technical indicators have rolled over and they're not oversold yet. RUT was weak today and it's leading the way down in my humble opinion. I'll be keeping an eye out on that. If we continue lower into Monday, that's the time I'll try the SPY March calls for a short term trade. Maybe even on Friday if we drop on the employment report. That should be the next catalyst one way or the other. It's too late for the puts here as I was a week early on that idea. GE got clobbered and lost 3/4 on very heavy volume. Looks like some people were aware of the bad news yesterday. I'm still a believer longer term for this stock. Gold and the US dollar were little changed. The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost almost 1/2. Volume was good. I did place an order for the GDX April calls overnight. It was close to getting filled when I canceled it. We are oversold for the gold shares but there relative performance vs. gold today was horrible. My thinking is that they have lower to go, following the overall market. The up trend line now for GDX appears in serious jeopardy as well as perhaps the gold shares will follow gold itself in breaking that line. Of course things could turn around tomorrow. We are oversold here for the gold shares and I do want to try the calls going forward. The question is when? Mentally I'm feeling OK. Volatility has creeped back up but it isn't really anything dramatic. That says to me that any decline here will be mild but who knows? Not overbought there yet but will be at the top of the Bollinger bands with another day or two like today. I am going to wait until at least Friday to try the SPY March calls if I do. Perhaps the reaction to the jobs report will give me a chance. I also may indeed pass on this idea because at the moment the pricing on the SPY March puts says that we are heading lower. The short term techncials for SPY are not close to oversold yet either. Perhaps we're heading for 2750 on the S&P, which is the 200 day moving average. That would be a logical place to start looking at the calls. Not that the stock market is logical in the general sense. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower in last nights trade. Tomorrow will probably be a wait and see session ahead of the employment report but we'll keep an eye on the overseas markets tonight.
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