Friday, March 08, 2019
It was a rock and roll Friday on the jobs report as the Dow came back from an over 200 point loss to finish with a drop of 23 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading down. The employment report was very weak and there was selling around the globe ahead of that. We had a big gap down but the selling did not find any steam. The Dow almost made it all the way back to even. Weakness could and should of been bought today. I did have an order in for the SPY March calls but it wasn't filled. Perhaps I'll get another chance on Monday. The VIX made it above 18 and then came back. I think we've seen the top for the VIX today. We're short term oversold for the S&P and calls are in order for next week. The McClellan oscillator is also very oversold as well. However it looks like today may have been the day to purchase. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. Gold found buyers today and the futures rose $14. The US dollar was weaker. The XAU rose 2 1/3, while GDX added over 1/2. Volume was average. Another missed trade for me here as I did not take advantage of the oversold signal when I should have. I was more concerned about the negative seasonality and missed a very good trade here it looks like. That is inexcusable because I was tracking it, got the buy signal and still did nothing. I missed getting filled by a penny before canceling the order for the calls earlier this week. I suppose I'll simply have to wait and see if we fall back to the near term uptrend line again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Well at least I was looking for the SPY calls today and that was the right move. Perhaps we'll get some weakness on Monday and I'll get another chance. If not, I'll have to wait for the April option cycle and the next signal. I'm still hoping that I'll get a chance though. If the worldwide selling has some follow through on Monday morning, maybe the S&P will open lower. It looks to me like the decline is over in the S&P for now. Gold put a halt to its decline this week and I'll simply keep an eye on it from here. Frustrating missing obvious signals though. There's nobody to blame but myself. The markets certainly don't care. I'll look over the charts this weekend and go from there hoping for some early selling Monday morning on the S&P. Asia was lower as the Chinese markets got clobbered. Europe sold off as well. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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