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Thursday, March 07, 2019

Another day another decline as the Dow lost 200 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were a bit better than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving down.  Getting oversold on a short term basis now for the S&P and I do think that weakness can be bought tomorrow.  Will I do it?  That remains to be seen.  We did get some buying in the final hour and that's a positive.  I could make a case for waiting until Monday to try the SPY March calls but by then it may be too late.  The VIX is not completely overbought just yet but it may not get there.  Perhaps I'll just wait and see what happens on the jobs report and go from there.  Oversold on the McClellan oscillator but that doesn't mean it can't stop dropping.  One thing for sure is that we have rolled over here but it isn't a precipitous decline.  GE bounced back 1/3 today on good volume.  Holding at the 50 day moving average for now.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures despite a big move higher in the US dollar.  The dollar looks like it is breaking out above longer term overhead resistance.  That would not be bullish for gold if it were to happen.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  I would still like to try the GDX April calls but if the dollar breaks out that trade will have to be put on hold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting change in the market psychology here as sellers have finally reappeared.  There's only 6 days left in the March option cycle but I do feel as though there is a profitable trade out there.  I suppose a lot depends on the employment number tomorrow as a strong reading will send the dollar higher, stocks and gold lower if I'm guessing right.  But that really doesn't matter as we will have to stick to the technicals.  No doubt we'll be oversold enough for me on weakness tomorrow to take a look at the SPY March calls.  That will be the game plan.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow as all eyes will be on the market reaction to the jobs report.

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