Friday, March 22, 2019
We experienced a very sharp reversal to the downside today as the Dow fell 461 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. the summation index has turned lower. The inverted yield curve was the excuse for todays drop as short rates peeked above longer rates today. This has been a precursor for a recession at times in the past. Regardless, it negates the positive price action that we've seen this week as the S&P 500 has closed below the near term support zone. Volatility zoomed higher and I'm guessing that was the reason the SPY April call premiums didn't drop as much as expected. The major stock indices closed right at their lows for the session which should make Monday morning pretty interesting. The short term technical indicators have rolled over and we're not oversold yet. GE lost over 1/4 on better volume. Gold rose $5 on the futures and the US dollar was up a bit as well. Flight to safety perhaps? The XAU along with GDX had very slight fractional gains on average volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So was today a one day wonder or the beginning of a more serious decline? That will be the question on traders minds over the weekend. Certainly the drop today after a very positive Thursday has gotten everyones attention. Especially since the Fed just did and said about all that it can this week. We will stick with the technicals though and they have just rolled over. I would guess that we are at least going to go back to the 200 day moving average on the S&P at around 2750. If and when we get there, if we are oversold it may be the spot to try the SPY April calls. I'm not exactly bearish here yet because money is still cheap. But we'll see how things go in the coming trading days. I do still favor the GDX April calls as well but need to see an oversold technical condition before attempting that trade. Plenty of chart work to do over the weekend. Asia was higher and Europe lower in overnight trading. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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