Thursday, March 21, 2019
A nice move higher today as the Dow gained 216 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving sideways. I think that it is safe to say now that the overhead resistance in the S&P 500 has been overcome and higher prices are in the future. If we somehow get a snap back to the resistance at 2820, that would be the time to try the SPY April calls. The price of the options now made it cost prohibitive really. Although the trade appears that it would of worked, the outlay outweighed the risk involved. In other words it cost too much to attempt the trade here. It is a Fed induced rally after yesterdays back and forth. GE was up a nickel on light volume. Gold gained another $7 on the futures. The US dollar got a bounce today. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX remains low and as long as that's the case the path of least resistance will be higher. The small stocks, although overbought, are leading the way higher with the exception of RUT. Plenty of time in the April option cycle but waiting for a valid signal is the mode I'm in at the moment. I'd really like to simply jump on board here but the premiums are very high with that extra week priced in them. Patience for now. Brexit is still in the news but it looks like it will be put on hold for a while instead of being resolved by the end of the month deadline. The US/China trade talks continue with no new headlines today. The market is always at the risk of a headline event, some times more than others. It appears to be a quiet time for now. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
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