Monday, March 11, 2019
Options expiration week started off with a bang as the Dow rose 200 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving lower but it is on its way to turning around. The McClellan oscillator gave a signal on Friday for a big move and we got it today. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow. The S&P 500 rose 40 points and the NASDAQ was up 150. BA held back the Dow as the stock crashed like one of its planes over the weekend. Friday was the day to get the SPY March calls and I missed out on an opportunity again. Buying first thing this morning would have worked but I was waiting for some kind of decline to try it. Never happened and I did not chase things because you cannot predict just how far the market will go in a day. However the underlying technical work was spot on and there will be other chances down the road. Not exactly pleased that I missed this one though. GE was up about 1/3 and the volume was good. Gold shed five bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. They did come up off of their lows for the session. I'm still looking at the April GDX calls but will have to wait for the next oversold signal to give them a try. My hope here is that we enter a consolidation in the gold shares for a couple of weeks and then the set up for the GDX April calls will materialize. But markets go where they want. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Quite a jump in the S&P today and I think that we're going higher in the short term. 2820 is the level we need to get through on good volume. If that occurs I think we will be heading perhaps back to the all time highs. That's just a guess for now. A bounce was due here technically and we certainly got it. Now it's back to the waiting game for the next signal. It will certainly be interesting to see how the rest of the week shapes up. Asia was lower overnight with the exception of China. Europe saw slight gains. We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US higher overnight.
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