Thursday, February 28, 2019
Another downside day but no volatility to speak of as the Dow fell 69 points on end of the month heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving sideways. And so has the market for the past couple of weeks. My SPY March puts are still showing a slight profit but I get the feeling if I don't sell them soon, I'll be getting stopped out for a loss. The market has the feel of a consolidation without a real decline before heading back to the upside. That is what it seems like to me despite the constant short term overbought condition of the major averages. GE was off 1/2 on good volume. Gold was off a few bucks while the US dollar was a bit higher again. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on lighter volume. Not completely oversold for the gold shares but we could get there next week. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. As I've already said the Bollinger bands on the VIX are converging and that means something big in the near future. I'm thinking it may be a strong move higher through 2800 on good volume and the bulls would be off and running if that's the case. But that's just a guess because things could go either way. The problem with being short here is that we've had plenty of chances to sell off this week but it just hasn't happened. Perhaps we'll just move sideways but that will suck out the time premium in my SPY options and leave me with another loss. It still looks like yesterday morning was the time to get out of this trade barring some unforeseen drop in the next couple of sessions. We've got the beginning of the month tomorrow and that could mean some money floes into equities. We'll see. Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
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