Wednesday, February 06, 2019
Just a bit of weakness today as the Dow fell 21 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues to move up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow but it feels more like a pause on the way to higher prices. No real news to speak of. We're still short term overbought for the S&P. I did place an overnight order for some SPY February puts in case we got a rally today but we didn't. I've canceled the order. Not sure what my next move here will be. I suppose I'll wait and see if we higher from here. Perhaps then I'll try the puts again. GE was off over 1/8 on the usual heavy volume. Gold fell eight bucks on the futures as the US dollar continues higher. The XAU lost about a point, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light. GDX is still in a flag formation after the recent run up. That usually is a continuation pattern. We'll see if it works this time around. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Just a sideways day today really with not much price movement. Volatility has disappeared for now really. The VIX is at fifteen and change. I still believe that we've had a five wave upside pattern for the S&P and that we are nearing the end of the rise. Combine that with the overbought condition on the short term for stocks and I do think that the SPY puts are in order. Now I don't think that a dramatic decline is about to take place but I do think that the possibility to make some profit is there. Again, the entry will be key and getting out rather quickly is probably the best route to take. So if we do see some strength tomorrow I may give this idea another try. What was open in Asia was higher last night and a mixed bag from Europe. We'll keep an eye on the trading overnight.
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