Tuesday, February 05, 2019
The beat goes on as the Dow gained 172 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. No end in sight for this rally as the V bottom cannot be denied at this point. I was stopped out of my latest SPY February put trade for another roughly 20% loss. The same conditions persist, overbought and staying there. That said I may try this trade again tomorrow against my better judgment. We'll see. The VIX has sunk below the 16.5 level and still no selling. The SPY to me looks like it has completed a five wave up move from the lows in December. Yet we see not even a hint of a decline. This won't last forever. But will it change in the near term if I attempt to trade the puts again? GE was up 3/8 and the volume remains heavy. Anybody who bought in the single digits will be pleased in the longer term. Gold was flat on the session with the US dollar a bit higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. These indexes appear ready to move higher after a small consolidation. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Overbought and drifting higher for the major stock indices led by the small caps. That is bullish but it's not a freight train. Getting long in the tooth here I believe. But that doesn't mean things get run up into the February expiration like they did in January. We've still got earnings coming out. Trump speaks tonight with the state of the union. Powell speaks tomorrow in some kind of town hall meeting. So there are potential market moving events as the US/China tariff talks have moved to the back burner until the end of the month. I'll check things out overnight and decide if I want to try the SPY February puts again tomorrow. The longer this thing stay overbought the better chance the puts have of working if the entry can be timed properly. No small feat there. Japan was slightly lower as most Asian markets are on holiday. Europe was mostly higher. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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