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Wednesday, February 20, 2019

The Dow rose 63 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The Fed minutes came and went.  We're still overbought on the short term as we have been.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal for a big move within the next two days yesterday.  We'll see if it happens tomorrow.  I did place an open order for the SPY March puts but canceled it late in the day.  I may try this idea again if we get some upside tomorrow morning.  There isn't much else to say as we plod through the holiday shortened week.  GE lost a few cents on light volume.  Gold was off a couple bucks after its nice rise yesterday.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on good volume but did finish off of their highs for the session.  Money is flowing into gold but I'll wait for a pullback or consolidation before trying the calls here again.  There's also a potential negative divergence on the daily RSI for GDX but that could fix itself with more near term upside.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Getting close to 2800 on the S&P 500 but certainly not there yet.  To me, that's the logical spot to try the March puts.  Overbought and staying that way, which is bullish.  But it has been that way for too long in my humble opinion.  Yes a headline from the US/China tariff talks could get things going either way in a hurry.  However I do feel the straight up nature of this advance is starting to wane and I'd like to be short when they head for the exits.  I could be wrong but I'm willing to take the risk here.  Perhaps tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the headlines tonight. 

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