Thursday, February 21, 2019
Finally a bit of selling today as the Dow fell 103 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. No news to speak of but the economic data came in a little weak. I did place an order for the SPY March puts but it didn't get filled so I canceled it. We are still short term overbought even with todays decline. I may decide to try this trade again tomorrow before the weekend. I almost chased it here today but did not. The deadline for an agreement between the US and China is approaching. Any kind of news on this, one way or the other, will produce some kind of market reaction. It is the big risk that one must endure here if a position is put on. I still favor the puts because this rally has been practically straight up for so long. But that doesn't mean it can't go further. GE was off a few cents and the volume was light. Gold fell over $20 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU lost 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was good. The gold shares held up pretty well despite the drop in the metal itself. That's bullish. I'm looking out to the GDX April calls as we move along here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The market rallied in the final half hour and that's a plus for the bulls. I not really sure if I should wait for the S&P to get to 2800 or simply buy the puts now. I'll check the indicators again tonight. Waiting on the sidelines is always an option as well. I did expect weakness here and we got it. The question is whether this is all we get or is it the start of a long awaited pause in the rally? Answer that correctly and you can probably make yourself some money. I'll check the charts and go from there. Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
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