Wednesday, February 27, 2019
The Dow fell 72 points today on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The summation index is starting to move sideways but has not rolled over. The Dow was off over 175 early but made up ground throughout the session. Ditto for most of the major stock averages. My SPY March puts had a decent profit in the morning but gave it all back. In retrospect I should have sold these things today. The price action today was bullish as the market sold off but then found buyers when it needed to. The NASDAQ and RUT turned positive and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term technical indicators are still overbought but we are getting sideways activity and not downside corrective movement. GE gained almost another 1/4 and the volume was heavy. Gold was off slightly today and the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX dropped 1/3. Volume was average. Waiting for an oversold reading here and we're getting there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The Bollinger bands on the VIX are getting close as they contract and that portrays a big move coming for the stock market. Which way is the question and when? There's still over 2 weeks left in the March option cycle but with todays price action my puts may not last. We'll get GDP tomorrow and that should be a market mover one way or the other. I get the feeling things are about to head higher here but I hope I'm wrong for the SPYs trade sake. However hope is not a viable trading strategy. I guess I'll wait and see how things go tomorrow and then decide what to do. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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