Thursday, February 14, 2019
The Dow fell 103 points today on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still moving up. Weak retail sales was the supposed culprit for the drop but it wasn't a stock market rout by any means. The overall market fared better, with the NASDAQ showing a gain. The overbought condition of the market will not last forever and perhaps today is the start of a pause in the rally. I'm still in favor of some SPY March puts at some point. But for now they are highly priced with so much time premium left in the option prices. Ideally if the market holds up here I'd like to try them next week. GE was off 1/3 and the volume was good. Gold finished little changed on the day and the US dollar was a bit lower. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Just a day to go before a holiday weekend in the US. The VIX had a small spike at the open but came back after that. Perhaps I'm waiting too long to get some SPY puts here but the prices once again are not to my liking. If we can hold up here for a week, I'll look to purchase then. I'm also keeping an eye on GDX for another call trade but I'd like to see it get back to 21.5 along with an oversold reading to try here again. We are halfway through February and the seasonal pattern for gold is bearish in March. So perhaps this is a trade for another time. We'll see. Asia was generally lower and Europe mixed last night. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
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