The Dow had another losing session as it shed 70 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  That tells you that the overall market was stronger than the Dow and much so.  The summation index is now moving sideways.  I saw nothing about the employment report so I guess it's coming out next Friday.  My mistake.  It appears the market is wary of a trade war with the ramblings of Trump.  We'll see.  I'm going to be looking at getting some SPY March calls on Monday if there's any weakness.  Today may have been the day to purchase them for a short term trade.  But I wanted to let this day pass to reassess things over the weekend.  I at least stuck to that plan.  GE rose ten cents on good volume.  I've left in the open order here for the March calls but again, I'll rethink this idea over the weekend as well.  Gold got an $18 bump up today as the US dollar was weaker.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  No love for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was a nice recovery in the overall market today with the small stocks leading the way again.  That tells me that perhaps the decline has run its course.  The key will probably be when we get to the short term down trend line in the S&P 500 at around 2760.  We've formed a wedge or triangle here and around that level will be the moment of truth.  That's how I see things at the moment.  Subject to change with further review over the weekend.  With the small stocks showing good relative strength, that normally means that they are the leaders one way or the other.  But again I'm going to have to take a step back and look things over.  I'll be checking the charts in the next two days as usual to try and come up with a plan for next week.  Two weeks to go in the March option cycle, so there's time to get some kind of trade going.  Europe and Asia closed lower to finish out the week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another downer for stocks as the Dow lost 420 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 400 market would suggest.  The summation index is heading lower.  The short term up trend line has been broken and the technical indicators have rolled over.  That's over 1000 points in three days for the Dow and volatility has returned.  I'm not exactly sure where we go from here but I'm not expecting any kind of huge drop.  That said, we are moving closer to the zero line in the summation index.  That is the line in the sand for some type of crash event.  We aren't there yet but even getting close is a worry.  I guess the market doesn't like the new Fed chairman but we all know that it isn't that easy.  GE lost nine cents for a new closing low for the year.  Volume remains heavy here.  I still have the open order out there for the March calls here.  This may not be the best idea but I'm willing to give it a try.  Gold was flat on the session as it came up off of the lows.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on better volume.  The gold shares are at their recent lows and need to hang in here or they will be going a lot lower in my view.  Interest rates have been dropping this week but it hasn't helped the market so far.  Once again, I'm not sure what is going on here.  One of the things that worries me is that the technical indicators still have plenty of room to fall.  So some of my thinking is that if we get a rally out of nowhere, that could be the time to try the SPY March puts again.  Just a thought for now.  I think that I'm going to let tomorrow go by and reassess things over the weekend.  The jobs number may not mean anything because it seems that the market has a mind of its own right now.  It knows things that we don't.  Volume is increasing with each day lower so far.  But the small stocks have had better relative strength in this weeks decline.  That usually means that we aren't on the verge of a major breakdown.  Perhaps this is the retest of the lows from early February.  That's just a guess as usual.  Like I said, I think I'll watch what happens tomorrow and go from there.  Asia was mostly lower with the exception of China and Hong Kong.  Europe was down.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Continuing lower as the Dow lost 380 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now trying to turn back down.  No news to account for the drop today.  Perhaps the market is wary of tomorrows words from the new Fed chief Powell.  However now technically the S&P 500 has broken the short term trend line form the beginning of the month and lower prices can be expected.  We closed near the lows for the session and I am assuming that it is too late to get the SPY March puts again.  At this point I'll have to wait for the VIX to get back to the 15 level to attempt any SPY puts.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume remains pretty good.  I did place an order for the GE March calls but we'll have to see some more weakness for it to get filled.  I'm not exactly sure this is the best idea here going forward but there isn't a lot of money involved.  I may even cancel this trade tomorrow if things really begin to unravel in the overall market.  Gold was flat on the day and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  I'm still of the belief that the fundamentals for the gold shares aren't positive at this time.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Well the former SPY March puts that I sold for a loss last week are now back in the black.  Of course looking back will usually do you no good in this game.  Where we go from here is what counts.  Obviously it looks like we're going lower as the up trend line has been broken.  Could this be a retest of the lows set in the beginning of February?  Perhaps.  The only thing that I can say for sure is that volatility has picked up.  We will not be seeing a repeat of the market that just keeps going up and remains overbought for weeks on end.  With the losses of the past two sessions I suppose we can wait for a short term oversold signal if we continue lower.  That would be an opportunity to try the SPY March calls at some point before the expiration.  But we're a long way from that.  Staying nimble here is the best advice and taking profits when you get them isn't a bad idea either.  Europe and Asia were both lower in last nights trading action.  We'll see how the market reacts to the Fedspeak tomorrow.      

Back to the downside today as the Dow lost 299 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The VIX almost made it to 15 and the market turned around.  That is the level to watch for on the VIX.  It looks like when we get down there the market will turn.  We'll have to wait for it to head back there.  One day doesn't make a trend.  What I'd like to see is another run back to 15 on the VIX with a light volume rally from here.  But the market rarely cooperates.  The new Fed chief spoke today and the market didn't like what it heard.  We were getting short term overbought on some indicators so a drop here isn't a big surprise.  It would be a surprise if it turns into something more.  GE lost what it gained yesterday and finished well off of the highs.  It was the most actively traded on the big board.  Yesterday there was a hammer and today there's a shooting star.  Basically GE is trying to make up its mind here.  I'll still maybe try the calls if we head back to $14.  Gold got hit on the Fedspeak and lost $14.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 2 1/4, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've now snapped back to the recent breakout on the S&P 500.  If we hold here we should start moving back up.  If not the short term up trend line from the rally that began in the beginning of the month could get violated.  We do have bearish candlesticks on the daily charts after todays price action on the major stock indices and we closed near the lows of the day.  So we are at an important near term point for the markets.  Just yesterday it appeared that all systems were on go and we were simply going to go back and test the all time highs.  That may still happen.  QQQ was on the verge.  We'll need to keep a close eye on what goes on for the rest of the week.  We've got the end of the month tomorrow.  The Fed will speak again on Thursday.  The jobs numbers will be out on Friday.  There are plenty of potential market movers.  Perhaps today was the time to try the SPY March puts again.  Time will tell on that.  For now I'm going to have to wait and see how things go ahead of the employment report.  Perhaps the VIX can return to the 15 level relatively soon.  That is more wishful thinking than anything else.  But at least we have something to go on.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how we finish out the month tomorrow.  

The market continues to advance as the Dow soared 399 points on OK volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  No fear in the market now as the bulls have taken over.  The VIX is heading back to its 50 day moving average at around 15.  In my mind that is a key level and I'll be watching to what happens when we get there.  It may be a spot to try the SPY March puts again.  But for now it looks like we are going to go back to the old highs of a month ago.  It's early but we could be building a double top in the major stock averages.  However we'll have to wait and see on that.  GE had quite a turnaround after getting below $14 today.  It finished with a gain of over 1/8 on pretty heavy volume.  Perhaps $14 is the line in the sand for the decline.  If we wander back down there, the March calls could be the next trade.  Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  I think that the fundamentals do not favor gold at the moment.  But there is a potential short term double bottom on the daily charts for the gold share indices.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So I'm over last weeks loss and trying to figure out where we go from here.  It appears that the rally is back on and I don't want to argue with that.  But I don't think that we will simply head straight on higher again as we did for most of January.  I would be surprised if we did.  If we continue higher into Thursday, then I may try the SPY March puts again because we will be short term overbought.  However that hasn't happened yet and there is plenty of time left to trade this week.  Some of the short term technical indicators are getting overbought.  At this point I'm going to simply wait and see where the market takes us before Fridays employment report.  If things line up for the SPY put trade I'll take it.  If not I'll stay on the sidelines until I see something else.  GE is still on the radar for the March calls but today could have been the day to initiate that idea.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia rallied in the overnight session.  We'll see how the market reacts to the new Fed chiefs remarks tomorrow.

The market powered higher today as the Dow gained 347 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index has now turned around and is moving higher.  My idea of a decline here only lasted a couple of days as the market was digesting its gains and not making a short term top.  I did manage to bring myself to sell the SPY March puts that I had for a 20% loss.  They did show a 10% gain at one point during the trading session but as usual I hung around hoping for a turnaround.  The market proved me wrong and I got out.  The light volume today is a concern for the bulls but I did not want to hang around.  It appears that my overall prognosis that the top is in could be wrong at this point as well.  The small stocks continue to act well and it looks like we're going back to test the all time highs.  GE didn't participate as usual and was off a penny.  Volume was light for lately.  I'm still considering the GE March calls but GE is such a slow moving stock that perhaps forgetting this idea all together is the best plan.  However the SPY moves very fast and it seems like that I'm really not up for that task at the moment for some reason.  Gold didn't do much today and neither did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Another losing trade in the books.  I'm not sure how I feel about that.  I was able to at least get out with a relatively small loss but I had plenty of chances to eek out a small gain.  But my trading tactics were lousy.  More than once today my mind was saying just get out and I didn't.  I kept waiting for a roll over to the downside that just didn't happen.  The market didn't do as I expected, as my work suggested a down session today and we got more than just the opposite.  I'm beginning to thank that my idea of where we are going here is wrong.  If we get follow through buying on Monday, then I think that I'll have to reevaluate what I'm thinking.  We did close on the highs of the session and that's bullish.  There's still plenty of time in the March option cycle to attempt another trade.  But will I be up to the task?  I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed with muted moves last night.  I'll try and put todays loss behind me and start the week off on a fresh note.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Kind of a mixed bag today but the Dow did gain 164 points on OK volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still trending sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ slightly lower.  I'm not exactly sure where we go from here but I should probably get rid of my SPY March puts tomorrow.  They are still showing a profit for now.  Many of the short term technical indicators are still mid-range, so we could go either way.  The Dow was up over 300 points during the session but once again could not hold on to the bulk of its gains.  We are stalling at the 50 day moving average for most of the major stock indices.  My work says tomorrow should be a negative day but for some reason I'm not believing it.  GE was up 1/8 but finished well off of its highs.  Volume was good again.  Plenty of volume for GE but no upside.  Gold had a slight gain and the dollar had a slight loss.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It really feels like the market is trying to make up its mind here on which way to go.  The daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 shows some spinning tops along the 50 day moving average.  It looks bearish.  However you could also make the case that we are in a flag formation and digesting the strong move higher that began a couple of weeks ago.  With mid-range technical indicators, a pause at the 50 day and the charts looking as they do you can see how the trading here is going to be tough.  I should probably just get out of what I own and move on to next week.  The volatility and decent entry are the only things keeping this trade profitable at the moment.  What I don't want to do is project the extreme volatility from two weeks ago on to this trade.  The odds are that we won't see that again for a while.  So maybe taking whatever I can get out of this and moving on is the best case scenario.  I'll know more on the open tomorrow.  The trading is never easy.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll close out the shortened trading week tomorrow.

Lower again today as the Dow fell 167 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is starting to trend sideways.  The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow and the small stocks had a lesser relative decline.  We were in positive territory for most of the session.  I did place an order for the SPY March puts and it somehow got filled near the highs for the session.  They are already showing a profit.  Depending on how things go in the next couple of days will determine how long I hold on to this position.  I should be out by the close on Friday or sometime on Monday at the latest.  I don't think that this is the beginning of something big to the downside but I certainly don't know.  Weakness was to be expected this week and we are certainly seeing that's the case so far.  GE fell another 1/4 on heavier volume.  The March calls keep getting cheaper here and that looks like it could be my next trade after the SPY puts.  Gold was off $5 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  An interesting session as we did open higher and close lower for a one day reversal.  The market was humming along and had a brief spike higher after the Fed minutes.  But things pretty much fell apart in the final hour and a half.  Technically the short term indicators are mid-range, so we could go either way here.  I am looking for further weakness though and it's not just because I own the puts.  My work says that we should see some more selling before the end of the week.  We'll see if that actually comes to pass.  The timing on the entry here looks to be pretty good.  Now all that matters is the exit.  I think that I'm going to let tomorrow pass regardless of the price movement and wait to sell the puts on Friday or Monday.  That is the game plan at the moment.  Subject to change as always depending on market conditions.  I think that this trade has a chance to be a winner but it is a matter of managing it properly from here.  Asia was generally higher in last nights trade but a lot of markets were closed.  Europe was mixed.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Lower today and that was to be expected as the Dow fell 254 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This may stall the summation index.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  We were short term overbought, so some selling should and did come in.  It may not be the beginning of anything big to the downside though, with the small stocks acting relatively well.  If we can hold up here until Thursday, I'll be inclined to give the SPY March puts a try.  If we simply go lower from here, that trade will be nullified.  The premiums on the SPY options remain high.  However weakness is expected this week and this may simply be the beginning.  GE lost 1/3 and the volume was good.  The March calls are still in play here for me if I decide to take on that trade.  Overall weakness in the market should take GE with it.  That is happening as of today.  I'm not looking for some kind of huge rally for GE but it the entry timing is good there will be opportunity for profit.  Gold fell $16 on the futures as the US dollar continues to rise.  This is the normal relationship between those two.  The XAU dropped about 2 1/2, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I had a long weekend to digest what's going on and came up with getting the SPY March puts if the market cooperates or the GE March calls if we drop all week.  I'm really hoping that the market holds up here for me in the next two sessions because that is a trade that would work rather quickly.  The SPY moves faster but that can work to your advantage as well.  The only drawback at this point is the expensive option premiums.  The GE trade would have to be held for a longer period of time and may simply turn into a sideways affair.  As always there are pluses and minuses to every idea.  We'll see if we get downside follow through tomorrow and try to figure out things from there.  Asia was lower last night, with China on a holiday.  Europe was higher.  We'll keep an eye on tonights market action.    

The day was mostly positive as the Dow rose 19 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index has turned back up.  The NASDAQ was lower though.  I sold my SPY February puts for an 85% loss.  This was a dumb trade as with less than two days to go when I entered it required that things practically had to go perfect for it to work.  That never happens in the trading game.  I don't know what I was thinking because before the trade was executed, I thought numerous times to just cancel the order.  But I didn't and I paid the price.  I do think that next week will have some weakness and I can almost guarantee it.  We're short term overbought.  The premiums on the SPY March calls are still pretty high since we are just rolling into that months options.  I'm not saying that we are going to see another collapse but I do think that we'll be lower in the coming days.  GE gained 20 cents and the short term indicators here have turned up.  I am still considering the March calls here.  If we do see weakness in the overall market it will probably take GE with it.  That would be the time to try this idea.  Gold lost $5 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 2 1/4, while GDX dropped 1/2.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm hoping that I won't lose any confidence after the latest losing trade.  Actually both trades that I've attempted so far this year haven't been the greatest ideas in the world.  The fact that one of them was a winner was probably more luck than actual good tactics.  The battle for me is always with myself in this game.  The market is there for the taking if you are good enough.  My view here is that we'll be heading lower at some point next week.  Whether or not we go back and test the lows remains to be seen.  I do not think that we will be heading back up to new all time highs.  I'm hearing in the media that this was a normal 10% correction and that the bull market remains in place.  It's possible that could be the case.  No major up trend lines have been violated.  However I'm more of the view that a top is being put in place and the long bull market is over.  I could be wrong.  Just because that is my view doesn't mean that we go straight down from here.  And it doesn't mean that trying the calls is out of the question either.  The market goes where it wants.  After seeing the market go straight up, we saw it go straight down.  Going out from here isn't going to have the same dynamic that we just witnessed.  I'm going to try and take the signals as they come and hopefully not engage in the dumb action that I just did over the past couple of days.  I should have sat it out and remained patient.  But I'm going to try and not dwell on that mistake over the weekend.  I'll need to find the next trade.  Europe and Asia were again positive overnight.  It's a long weekend in the US.  Plenty of time to figure out what to do going forward.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market continues to climb higher as the Dow gained 306 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  We're now short term overbought but that condition can last for a while as we saw before the recent decline.  I did buy some SPY February puts today and they are showing a loss.  With only one day left for this trade it is already in the cut the loss stage.  My only hope would be a sharp decline on the open and that really isn't expected.  I should have let this trade simply pass because the timing had to spot on and there isn't any time for this trade to work.  Perhaps I was bored or just greedy or perhaps feeling invincible after making money on the previous trade.  I had an open order and thought about canceling it throughout the session.  But then is got filled and now I'm stuck with it.  Not good trading tactics here today.  GE was off a nickel on lighter volume.  I'm still considering the March calls here.  Gold was off a couple bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were little changed but did come off of their lows for the session.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling a little tired.  A long weekend is coming up in the US as Monday is a holiday.  It looks like I'll have all that time to stew over a stupid trade.  I do expect some near term weakness but it probably won't come in time to save me.  I also believe that weakness can be bought next week for a SPY March call trade but I don't think that we'll be going to new all time highs again soon.  I could be wrong.  We do have option expiration tomorrow, so anything can happen.  But like I said, unless there is a gap down at the open, my trade is dead.  There is nobody to blame but myself.  The economic data came in mixed today and it really wasn't a factor.  The market is giving the impression that the selling is now over and it's full speed ahead again.  We'll see about that.  At this point all that I can do is wait to see what happens at the open tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Moving higher as the Dow gained 253 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around.  Is the decline over?  At least it is for now.  I would like to try the SPY February puts on any strength tomorrow but with only two days to go in the option cycle the risk is way too high.  But getting the puts when we hit the 50 day moving average at about 271 would be the play.  I do think that last Fridays lows need to be tested but I certainly don't know when.  The summation index is heading near the zero line and that would imply that the market is about to fall apart.  However I do think that we will hold up here for now.  Perhaps if we see some more weakness before the end of the month, we'll get a set up for the SPY March calls.  That is the next idea unless I somehow try the SPY February puts.  Almost getting to short term overbought for the SPY.  GE was up about 1/4 on good volume.  Perhaps today was the day for the March calls but if we roll back down there will be a better opportunity in my mind.  And there's still the fact that GE is a slow mover.  But I do think that the idea has a chance to work.  Gold rallied today on what was perceived as a strong inflation number.  The precious metal futures added over $20 as the US dollar got whacked.  The XAU climbed 4 1/4, while GDX gained a full point.  Volume was good.  We now have a bottom in the gold shares.  The 200 day moving average was support for the gold shares indices.  It appears weakness can be bought there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My choices here are to try a SPY very short term put trade or wait for the SPY March calls on any weakness in the coming days.  Plus the GE March calls if we see some pullback there in the near future.  So there are some ideas for profit out there.  The VIX is coming back down and there appears to be room to move lower there.  This implies a longer term move back up in my view but I could be wrong.  Regardless, I do think that a long term top is in.  I'll consider whether to try the short term trade overnight.  Europe and Asia were higher last night with the exception of Japan.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Still trying to slug our way higher here as the Dow rose 39 points on lighter than lately volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading lower.  Running out of time for another SPY trade in the February option cycle.  I'm looking at the puts here on a very short term basis.  But the prudent move would be no move at all here because time is not on your side.  The short term technical indicators have started to move up here for the SPY.  I think that I'm going to wait for an actual signal though.  We don't have one yet.  We'll get inflation data tomorrow but one number isn't a trend.  However there is a chance the market will be fixated on it.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume remains pretty good.  I would like to try the March calls here and now is as good a time as any.  But for some reason I'm holding off.  I think that the overall market will head lower in the coming days and take GE with it.  Then I might try the March calls here if the premiums get low enough for me.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Three days in a row higher for the overall market and we haven't seen that for a couple of weeks.  But we'll have to get through expiration week before a long holiday weekend.  I'll expect a rollover here at some point before the end of the week.  I'll also be looking at a test of the recent lows to set up the March calls.  That is potentially my next SPY trade as well.  There won't be any rush to do anything because there really isn't a decent signal one way or the other just yet.  So I think that patience will be your friend here.  Asia was mostly higher with the exception of NIKK.  Europe was down.  We'll keep an eye on the developments overnight.

Continuing higher to begin the week as the Dow climbed 410 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading lower.  The decline is over for now as far as I'm concerned.  We had a five wave move down and we will now form a bottom or simply continue higher from here.  The short term technical indicators for the SPY have turned up.  I'll be looking for a retest of the lows of last week at some point.  That would be the ideal situation.  If they hold then calls are to be purchased.  If they don't, then we'll be going a lot lower rather quickly.  I do not expect that to happen.  Only 4 days to go in the February option cycle.  I do not think that I'll be trying a trade with the SPY here but you never know.  I'll be looking at the calls unless we are up for the next 3 days.  I then may try the puts for expiration.  But the short term trades are full of risk.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was heavy.  I am looking at the March calls here.  The only problem for me is that GE is a slow moving equity.  It could simply trend sideways for the next five weeks.  However if the options get cheap enough, I may attempt a trade.  Gold was up $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU rose 2 3/4, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was very heavy.  Perhaps we'll put in a bottom here on the gold shares.  They are oversold and have had a nice 2 day pattern on the daily candlestick chart.  There's a potential hammer bottom.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got some follow through to Friday gains and I think the selling is washed up for now.  I could be wrong.  It is expiration week in front of a holiday weekend.  The VIX indicators are mid-range but trending lower.  The McClellan oscillator is trying to recover as well.  I don't really have a short term signal here yet but my gut wants to go with the long side for the immediate future and into March.  I think that we've raised enough fear to keep people guessing.  There won't be any straight up moves form here in my opinion.  Waiting for the right opportunity will be my challenge.  We'll keep an eye on things.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The Dow held up today for a change and rose 330 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower.  Did we hit bottom today?  Could be for the short term in my mind.  But this is a crazy time in the markets and we do have option expiration week coming up.  It was another 1000 point range day for the Dow and we certainly aren't used to that.  5 days left in the February option cycle and the premiums remain very elevated.  The risk is also because if your timing isn't spot on here there won't be enough time to recover.  I'm going to have to look things over this weekend and make a decision as to what to do.  GE was up 1/2 and the volume remains extremely heavy.  Perhaps I could go out to the March calls here.  That would at least give the trade some time to work.  I'll look at it over the next couple of days.  Gold and the US dollar were both little changed.  The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume was very heavy here.  The gold shares have been falling for three straight weeks.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that we have a positive divergence for the short term with the McClellan oscillator.  We've hit lower prices with a higher oscillator reading this week.  It also looks like we have potential double bottoms on some of the short term technical indicators for the SPY.  Along with another potential completion of an A-B-C-D-E wave down on a very short term basis.  That's what it looks like to me here.  The February SPY calls are very pricey though, with the abnormal volatility that we've seen this week.  I am going to have to look things over carefully this weekend and determine if a trade is worth it.  I also should keep in mind that I usually don't perform well with the short term trades.  Going out to March with GE may be the better idea but I'll decide that over the weekend.  It was quite a week in the markets and there were plenty of opportunities for profit.  Next week should prove the same.  Asia and Europe were both lower but Europe not as much.  There will be plenty to ponder over the next two days.  But right now it's Friday afternoon and time for a much needed break.

The Dow got clobbered again and lost over 1000 points for the second time this week.  The most watched index fell 1033 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  At this rate we are moving into the potential crash zone for the summation index.  We're not there yet but if the decline continues we could get there soon.  Volatility remains elevated and the trading is tricky as premiums are sky high for the SPY options.  That said, the retest of the early week lows has already failed.  Where we go from here is a guessing game.  I guess 2500 on the S&P 500 would be a good spot to have the decline take a breather.  It's a nice round number and it is below the 200 day moving average.  But looking at the daily chart, there's support that comes in right where we are now, give or take a few points.  And a few points here means about 25 or 50.  We've now had a 10% correction but the market is in crazy mode.  Tomorrow will be interesting.  GE lost 3/4 and the volume is still heavy.  New lows for this move lower in GE.  Gold was up over $5 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  Not exactly a flight to safety for gold and the dollar.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Short the rallies is about all I can say here.  If there are any rallies.  We did have a bounce but it died rapidly yesterday.  I might consider the SPY February calls again if we get to 250 there.  There's better support at 245 though.  It is all in a state of flux at the moment.  On a very short term basis this could be the 5th wave down of the move lower that began on January 29th.  That's my best guess for now.  Trying a trade here would be very risky.  After somehow getting away with the last trade, it may be better to just sit on the sidelines for now.  I'll consider the alternatives overnight.  What we are seeing is the result of the parabolic move higher in January.  This is how those moves end.  The trip down can be just as fast or even faster as we are witnessing right now.  There will be opportunities though if you are good enough to find and take advantage of them.  We'll continue to keep looking.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll finish out this volatile week tomorrow.

Bouncing around today as the market is trying to make up its mind on where to go.  The Dow lost 19 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is heading lower.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The Dow was up almost 400 points during the day.  So you can see that the intra-day volatility remains.  I was considering the SPY February puts at one point but the premiums are still out of whack.  I may look to try the calls again if we retest the lows before expiration.  A run back to the 275 level on the SPY will have me attempting the puts.  As you can see the situation remains fluid.  I am going to try not to be in any kind of rush and consider myself fortunate to have gotten out of the previous trade unscathed.  GE lost a couple cents and the volume is still heavy.  Gold dropped over $10 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume here remains good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've basically had a short term collapse and now we are in the aftermath.  The option premiums are still all over the place and that makes for difficult trading.  But as the days pass on the way to expiration, the volatility premium will evaporate.  If I do attempt another trade in the February cycle, it will be at the price that I want and nothing else.  Getting a signal would be the ideal situation but if we get to the levels that I explained before it may very well be worth a shot.  You can forget the economic data for now and simply focus on the market movement itself.  Earnings have suddenly taken a back seat but that's what happens when you get a trading environment like this.  Risk is higher than normal but the rewards have the potential to be higher as well.  Most likely quicker too but that makes for tougher trading.  You can always simply stay on the sidelines and wait for things to settle down.  I'll be keeping an eye on things and hopefully the market will cooperate for another profitable trade before the 16th.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Just another crazy day on Wall Street as the Dow got the bounce we were looking for and rose 567 points on heavier volume than yesterday.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I'd like to see some follow through tomorrow but in this environment you take what you can get.  We were down over 500 points early and the days range was over 1000 points again.  The volatility here has gone off the charts.  My SPY February calls were all over the place.  They showed a profit at one point early.  Then they were at an over 50% loss.  They once again came back and I got out with a better than 50% profit.  However the market kept going and it looks like holding on until tomorrow would have been a better idea.  But with the way things are going now, I'll take getting out today.  This trade was going to be a big loser.  I'm not sure what the next trade will be but I can tell you this.  You've got to be quick on the execution because the pricing is looking pretty squirrelly during the trading session.  The decline may be done for now but that doesn't mean that we won't go back to retest todays low.  I'll have to pour over things tonight to develop the next idea.  I don't think that we are going to be going straight back up.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume is still very heavy.  Gold lost $10 on the futures, while the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU lost a point and GDX dropped almost 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  US interest rates came down today but the dollar didn't move.  The fundamentals for gold here are bearish in my opinion.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit exhausted due to the increased volatility.  There are opportunities to be sure.  On an intra-day basis no less.  But the risk is extremely high and you've got to be nimble and not fall in love with your trades.  I'd like to try something else before the expiration but I'm not exactly sure what to do right at the moment.  You can throw out any economic data due out this week as the market has taken on a life of its own.  The last fibonacci retracement level for the SPY on a snap back basis is around 275.  That could be the spot to try the puts again.  We are at 269.  I may be willing to take a chance there.  If we somehow go lower from here, I might want to try the calls again at around the 260 level.  The only thing that I can say for sure is that we are in a very fluid situation that requires a skill level that I may not possess.  But that won't stop me from trying.  Again, don't fall in love with anything and take your profits when you can.  The market conditions that we are experiencing now won't continue forever.  The trading will get back to normal eventually.  But we saw a parabolic rise to the top and now we've seen the inevitable collapse of that.  Where we go from here is all that matters.  But don't expect any new all time highs anytime soon.  Foreign markets were crushed overnight.  We'll see how things go overnight and I'll try to come up with the next trading idea before the February expiration. 

The market simply collapsed today as the Dow dropped over a thousand points.  The most watched index shed 1175 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 8 to 1 negative.  The summation index is in a free fall.  I thought support was at 2700 for the S&P 500 but we just knifed through there.  The market goes where it wants.  Volatility is off the charts.  The market goes down faster than is goes up.  We've wiped out the gains for the year in just over a week.  I made the mistake of getting some SPY February calls to try and play a bounce that I thought would happen.  That trade is getting crushed and I doubt it will come back.  The volatility is keeping the premiums up.  So if I can hang around for the snap back bounce, I may be able to salvage a workable loss.  Otherwise it's just kiss it goodbye.  We're in extreme market conditions here, so anything goes.  It looks like there's more support for the S&P at 2600 but there are no guarantees there.  Well, at least I was right about the rally being over.  Those February puts would have been quite profitable if you got them and held on.  GE lost 3/4 and the volume was very heavy.  Who knows where we're going here.  Gold was up $6 but nobody noticed.  The US dollar rose in a flight to safety.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose you could call today a mini-crash since we did drop over 1000.  It was off even more than that at one point late in the day.  I do think that it is a bit overdone at this point but what do I know?  We are due to bounce but we were due this morning as well.  The McClellan oscillator is even more oversold now and it won't stay that way for long.  At least usually it doesn't.  For me I'm now in the hoping stage and that is no way to trade.  I'll be looking to see how much I can cut the loss.  Where does the market go from here.  Even after todays sell off, I still  see in the media that this is nothing to worry about and stocks will come back.  That tells me that there is still a lot of complacency out there.  So we probably have lower to go.  There is no doubt in my mind that this is the beginning of a bear market.  The long bull market has come to an end.  I don't know how long the bear will last but in my view the rally since 2009 is now over.  There's nine days to go in the February option cycle.  If I hadn't gotten filled on the SPY calls today, I would be sitting the rest of this option cycle out.  The market is moving fast right now and I don't know if I'm up to the task.  Like I've already said, this has to be a cut the loss trade now because the strike price is so far out of the money.  We'd need to see a 1000 point rise for this thing to work.  That is highly unlikely.  Stay tuned to this game because it has really gotten interesting.  Europe and Asia were both lower and they will get creamed overnight.  We'll see if this thing can at least stabilize tomorrow but anything can and will happen.  

And so it goes.  The Dow got clobbered today and fell 665 on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 9 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  What can I say?  Another opportunity lost.  The employment report didn't really matter.  Yesterday the McClellan oscillator gave a signal for a big move and we got it today.  All parabolic moves end ugly and here is your proof from the markets extraordinary rise since the beginning of January.  I'm not sure how low we go here but all rallies can be shorted from here on out.  The long running bull market is over.  I had pegged 273 on the SPY for the extent of this decline, which equated to 5%.  We may go further.  I'm looking for follow through selling Monday morning but that will be the opportunity to get long for a short term bounce if you so desire.  We are now extremely short term oversold and upside is coming.  The tricky part will be trying to figure out where to buy the SPY February puts to hold until expiration Friday.  That seems to me to be the better trading idea in the days to come next week.  I just wasn't quick enough to recognize the opportunity this week.  Again.  But on the plus side at least my ideas are looking better and it is only a matter of time before the winning trades start rolling in.  GE was off over 1/3 and broke $16.  Volume remains very heavy here.  I don't have any ideas for GE right now.  Gold dropped around $15 as the US dollar was higher.  Interest rates have taken off and that finally was reflected in gold and the dollar.  The XAU shed 3 3/4, while GDX lost 3/4.  Volume was pretty heavy.  The gold shares were overbought and due for a decline.  We're seeing that now.  Mentally I'm feeling a but frustrated as the market drops and I'm not taking advantage of it.  Perhaps the speed of the SPY is too much for me, since I haven't really traded it sine last October.  There's also the chance that I'm too risk averse since the last few trades that I did in the SPY were losers.  I'm going to have to try and sort things out in my head over the weekend because the market is certainly not going to wait around for me to get my act together.  Usually what happens after a drop like this is that you will get a huge upside day out of the blue.  Then everyone thinks that things are back to normal.  That will be the time to look to try the SPY puts again.  I don't know if it will work on the first bounce or not because what we have seen this week is extreme.  But I do know we'll see some kind of big upside day at some point next week.  How the market does after that will tell you a lot about where we are heading.  Europe and Asia were generally lower but I expect Monday morning overseas to be ugly.  There's a couple weeks left in the February option cycle, so there is still time to tackle a trade.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  If you are nimble enough the SPY calls purchased on Monday weakness should work for a short term trade.  If not, I'd look to short any two to three day rally next week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Somewhat of a holding pattern today but we did bounce around a lot.  The Dow rose 37 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  There isn't any doubt in my mind that we're heading lower but near term strength is expected.  Some of my indicators are indicating that we are short term oversold.  Even if we are lower tomorrow, I expect some type of rise at the beginning of next week.  If we're up tomorrow I may have to change that prognosis.  I've got an open order in for some SPY February puts but it will take a rally for the order to get filled.  Anybody who is paying attention can see the change that we have in market action recently.  The days of simply heading higher everyday are over in my opinion.  I do think that the February index puts will work.  GE was off over 1/8 on good volume but less than we have seen lately.  The $16 continues to hold for now.  Gold was up over $10 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  This occurred despite a rise in US interest rates.  I'm not sure this inverse relationship can last forever and I certainly don't know why it is happening.  The XAU and GDX finished the session flat on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still a little over two weeks to go in the February option cycle.  Attempting a trade here will be tricky because the nature of things has changed.  Volatility has returned and the trading must be done in a faster mode that I haven't done in a while.  I'll take my cues here from the summation index and it is pointing towards lower prices.  At the rate things are going at this point, I won't be entering a trade until next week.  We've got AAPL after the bell and the jobs report tomorrow morning.  Ideally we'll see a rally that carries over into Monday.  If we just head down tomorrow, I may have to rethink the February SPY puts because we will have already moved too low perhaps.  As usual it's a fluid situation.  But I do still believe that rallies can be shorted for now.  Asia was closed or lower while Europe was down.  Looks like Apple missed estimates.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We got a slight bounce today as the Dow rose 72 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  I am looking for more upside as today was not enough to cheapen the SPY February puts for my taste.  But the market may not cooperate.  The Fed came and went and next up is the Friday jobs report.  What I'd like to see is a solid upside session in order to get short.  The ideal scenario would be to hit a nominal new high with a lower RSI reading but that would take a few days and the market could just continue to fall apart here.  So I'll have to wait and see.  It isn't the best case scenario but I am still convinced that this rally has run its course.  GE was up almost 1/4 on still heavy volume.  The more the $16 level is tested, the more chance it has to hold.  Gold gained almost $10 as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was better than yesterday.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX dropped slightly today and is coming off of short term overbought levels.  The small stocks are holding up rather well here and no important uptrend lines have been broken to the downside yet.  In fact the resilience of the small caps here may mean that the decline that I'm looking for may not come to pass.  The smaller stocks are usually the leaders of moves both up and down.  The McClellan oscillator did hit a pretty oversold level yesterday, so some near term upside is expected.  How far and how strong that upside is will tell us a lot about where we are going.  I'm still favoring the SPY February puts during this option cycle but as always the timing is key.  At this point I may have to wait until next week.  However the risk will increase with each passing day.  I'll be watching and waiting for now.  Europe and Asia were both mixed last night.  It's the beginning of the month tomorrow but I would expect a holding pattern as we wait for Fridays employment report.  Apple reports after the bell tomorrow and that could affect Fridays action as well.  But let's see what happens on Thursday first. 

The Dow got clobbered today and lost 362 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were again over 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  Two days don't make a trend but I can tell you that the trend is now down.  The rally is over.  Parabolic moves higher never end pretty and we are now seeing the picture.  Any rallies can be shorted in my opinion.  We had a gap lower today and if we're lucky perhaps that gap will be filled and give us an opportunity to buy some SPY February puts.  But we may just keep going straight down here and if that's the case it will be an opportunity missed.  I also think that this is probably the end of the bull market that began in 2009.  We've reached the measuring objectives of the 5 wave move up from there.  Perhaps we'll make a nominal new all time high but I would not be surprised if this is it for the longer term bull market.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was heavy.  Just below $16 here.  It would be a good spot to get some calls if you thought GE will hold here.  I'm going to concentrate on the SPY here instead.  Gold was off a little on the futures and the US dollar dropped slightly as well.  The XAU lost 7/8 and GDX fell 1/4.  Volume was lighter.  No flight to safety here today.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I do want to participate in the profits on this decline.  I can't really fault myself too much though as there was no signal to get short.  Just a parabolic move higher that continued to spin out of control to the upside.  However now that we know what is going on, I'll be trying the SPY February puts on any move higher.  I do think that kind of trade will work going forward.  The only problem here is that we simply may continue lower without any bounce up.  If that is the case I will have to look to play the bounce if we get short term oversold.  The VIX has spiked into overbought territory on some of the short term indicators so perhaps we'll see some relief there soon.  There is plenty of time left in the February option cycle to make something work.  But the increase in volatility will make things interesting and more difficult to say the least.  We'll get the Fed announcement tomorrow and then the jobs numbers on Friday.  We've got the end of the month tomorrow as well.  Also throw in the state of the union speech tonight.  So there's plenty for the market to digest the rest of this week.  Europe and Asia were both lower as the world is now selling off stock assets together instead of buying.  We'll see how long this keeps going on.  Keep an eye on things overnight along with the futures market reaction to the state of the union address. 

Some downside to start the week for a change as the Dow lost 177 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index lower.  Perhaps this is the beginning of a much needed decline but that still remains to be seen.  I will be looking at hopefully a lighter volume push higher from here, in order to purchase the SPY February puts.  Or it may already be too late.  These parabolic moves higher never end well and sometimes it is simply a straight line back down.  There's also the possibility that this is just another blip on the radar as we continue higher to new all time highs again.  But the breadth today tells me that is probably not the case.  I'll be looking to get the SPY puts sometime this week.  GE bucked the trend and rose 15 cents on the usual heavy volume.  Still holding the $16 level here.  Gold fell over $10 today as the US dollar edged higher.  US interest rates are on the rise and that is normally a headwind for gold.  The XAU was off over 2 3/4, while GDX lost 2/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a trend but it certainly feels different to me today on this decline.  We did have a good rise on the VIX today and it is getting to the overbought range on some of the technical indicators.  That would not equate to more selling in the immediate future in my view but anything can happen in this game.  We've got the end of the month coming up on Wednesday along with the Fed.  The thinking is that the Fed will be a non event since a new chairman is about to take over in February.  But you never know.  Also the employment report is due out on Friday.  So there are plenty of potential market moving events to deal with this week.  It could be that the time to act is now for the SPY February puts.  However I will at least try and wait for some type of negative divergence signal.  If we do simply go straight down from here, it will be too late for me anyway.  So needless to say, it is time to really pay attention to what the market does here.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the trading action overnight.

The parabolic run higher continues as the Dow poured on another 223 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  GDP was a little less than expected but it didn't matter.  The only thing that matters is that the market is going higher.  Earnings continue to come in and projections are for more profits as the new corporate tax rate goes into effect.  It doesn't look like anything can bring this market down but I will continue to warn you.  When it gets going like this the end will not be pretty.  But who can tell when the end will be?  Still overbought on all time frames for the major averages any way you look at it.  The technical indicators haven't been working for weeks.  I am still looking at the SPY February puts but still have no idea on when to purchase them.  Perhaps next week.  GE was off a few cents on still pretty good volume.  $16 has held for now.  There is a possible short term double bottom here on the daily chart with a potential positive RSI divergence.  I'm not sure if I'd try the February calls here though.  It is something to consider over the weekend.  Gold dropped $15 on the futures which reflected what happened yesterday on the aftermarket.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  No trades in mind here but to me it looks like the gold shares a re due for a rest.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a January so far for stocks and it doesn't look like anything can derail this runaway freight train.  We are so overextended by any stretch of the imagination that I am at a loss as what to do.  I mean I know that getting the SPY puts at some stage will work and they will probably work pretty good.  However when the technicals are so far out of whack that they remain overbought or oversold for weeks on end, you know you're in a situation that doesn't occur very often.  It reminds me of the dot com run up at the turn of the century when companies were bid up with no products or earnings.  We've got products and earnings this time around but the price action is similar.  We all know what happened back then though and I expect a repeat of history is coming at some point.  I suppose all you can do here is watch and wait.  I'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another mixed bag today as the Dow climbed 140 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The NASDAQ showed a small loss on the session and the TRAN has rolled over.  I do not know if this is a precursor for overall lower prices but I am keeping an eye on it.  The same extreme overbought conditions persist for the major stock averages.  It is impossible to say how long this can go on.  It's a parabolic run up in my mind and I want to be on board when it turns around.  GE dropped another 1/4 and the volume remains very high.  Gold fell $15 on the futures as the US dollar steadied.  The XAU shed 2 1/8, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  This looks like a turnaround for the gold shares so perhaps we will begin to see some dollar strength going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was higher today even though we gained 140 points.  I'm not exactly sure what's going on there.  I'm still looking at the SPY February puts but will probably let tomorrow pass and wait to see what happens in the beginning of next week.  There still isn't a clear signal that a decline is about to occur.  We are in a momentum move higher and it isn't a good idea to try and guess the top.  All recent declines have been short lived and I'm looking for a more sustained event.  The best that I can do here is monitor the situation and be prepared to act.  But for now the sidelines are the place for me to be.  This will eventually change as conditions warrant if I'm adept enough to recognize the situation.  That remains to be seen.  Europe and Asia were generally lower last night.  We'll see how the week finishes trading tomorrow. 

A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 41 points on good volume.  the advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The NASDAQ was much lower and the S&P 500 opened higher and closed lower for a one day reversal to the downside.  I'm not sure if that means this is the beginning of something lower or just another blip on the upside radar.  Time will tell on that.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The small stocks were lower today and that could mean that things are going to change but one day doesn't make a trend.  I am still looking at the SPY February puts.  Regardless, we remain very overbought and are still basically moving higher in a parabolic blow off in my mind.  I don't know when it will end.  GE was right back down today and lost about 1/2 on extremely heavy volume and was once again the most actively traded issue on the big board.  We'll see if $16 holds.  Gold climbed $20 on the futures as the US dollar had a drop once again.  The XAU gained 2 1/8 and GDX added 1/2.  Volume increased on the rise again.  I still don't know why the US dollar is dropping with US interest rates rising.  I do know that inverse relationship won't last forever.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There is a potential short term negative divergence on the RSI for the RUT.  It is potential because we could go higher from here and that would negate the signal.  So it is something to keep an eye on in the near term.  Otherwise the conditions remain the same.  Well above all moving average lines and the technical indicators are all over extended.  The TRAN showed weakness today on heavy volume.  The short term indicators have started to roll over here.  But again, upside tomorrow would turn things back up.  However this index is starting to move sideways and could be an early warning of a change in trend.  That's a guess as usual.  We'll see how things go the rest of this week.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trading.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.  

The Dow had a pause in the party today as it fell 3 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was much stronger that the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way.  As long as the small stocks continue to show good relative strength, I'll be looking for higher prices even though we are way overbought.  You cannot get in the way of this momentum right now.  Hopefully there will be an opportunity for the SPY February puts in this option cycle.  GE came to life as it rose 3/4 on very heavy volume.  Perhaps $16 is the floor here because there was no news that I could see to raise the stock that much.  I don't have any trades in mind for GE at the moment.  Gold added $9 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  Rates have increased in the near term yet the dollar cannot find any strength.  This is not the usual relationship.  The XAU gained 1 5/8, while GDX rose 3/8.  Volume picked up on the rise.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  January continues to see a parabolic rise in my mind as we set new highs on many of the major stocks indices today.  We are now even further away from the moving average lines.  I keep repeating myself but this will not end well when the time comes.  I will keep an eye on things and try to be short when the inevitable drop occurs.  But I don't think that it will be this week.  We'll get some real estate data in the next couple of days and GDP on Friday.  For now it is still a wait and see time for me.  There are no negative divergences or potential divergences at the moment.  Europe and Asia had gains overnight as the worldwide ride higher continues.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The beat goes on as not even a US government shut down can derail this runaway freight train.  The most watched index gained 142 points on average volume for a new closing high..  The advance/declines were just shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and hit new highs as well.  The market continues higher regardless of the news and that's bullish.  I'm still waiting for some type of negative divergence but we aren't seeing any.  I'm also still considering the SPY February puts but I'm not in any hurry to put this trade on.  Patience is key as we continue to climb higher with no overhead resistance.  There is no timetable for a decline as the technical indicators have essentially stopped working.  GE again is a laggard as it fell almost a dime and was the most heavily traded stock on the NYSE.  I don't know where the bottom is here but it is trying to hold the $16 level.  Gold was up a bit and the US dollar was down a bit.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The February option cycle has begun and there is plenty of premium built into the options.  That said, I will try and wait for at least some type of signal before attempting the first trade of 2018.  It is hard for me to get calls when we're already overbought and have been for weeks.  It is a parabolic move in my view and it won't end pretty.  But as I've already said, it's impossible to call the top.  Shorts have been squeezed to death and any selling has found ready buyers.  I'll simply have to watch and wait.  It isn't the most exciting proposition but it is my choice for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on things as earnings season rolls along. 

Record highs for some of the major stock indices but not the Dow today.  The Dow did gain 53 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is back to trending sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  RUT managed to turn around as well so the negative sign we were getting there is abating.  The short term indicators on the VIX have turned back down as well.  It looks like we have more gains to come as the S&P 500 has broken above the short term resistance.  I'm still considering the SPY February puts though but will try and wait for a negative divergence.  GE didn't participate again as the earnings report was announced.  It fell another 1/2 on the extremely heavy volume that we've seen all week.  Oversold on the short term here but this stock has really fallen out of favor.  If not for its negative action the Dow would be that much higher.  Gold and the US dollar both had slight gains.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The week did have some selling for a change but we finished near the highs for the week on the broader major averages.  Back to short term overbought again.  We'll get some economic data mid to late next week to possibly trade off of.  We're back to no overhead resistance for the S&P.  Can anything derail the market?  At some point, yes but we certainly don't know when that point will be.  I still say that it's parabolic and dangerous but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher.  The technical indicators still don't work for sell signals and we aren't getting buy signals when we simply remain overbought.  I'm going to go over everything again this weekend to try and figure out some kind of game plan going forward.  It won't be easy.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another pause today as the Dow dropped 97 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative.  This could get the summation index to turn around and potentially head lower.  The overall market was not as weak as the Dow.  I'm still considering the SPY February puts but will let this week go by as we have option expiration tomorrow.  The indicators on the VIX are also getting to an area where we should see it turn around and head lower.  There are no negative technical divergences on the major stock averages that I see.  So I'm still trying to be patient before attempting the next trade.  Now some of the short term technical indicators have rolled over on the RUT.  This is potentially an early warning of what's to come.  But there are no guarantees  That may not mean anything.  GE got pounded again ahead of its earnings and lost over 1/2 on very heavy volume.  Near term support has failed.  We luckily stepped aside attempting the calls at the $17.50 level.  We'll see how it goes with the earnings tomorrow.  Gold was off $10 on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX declined 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  An interesting week so far as the parabolic run in the Dow seems to be running out of steam.  How we close tomorrow should be a telling sign.  A potential US government shutdown looms but that is something that would eventually get resolved.  I'm not sure how much the market really cares about that.  We have seen an uptick in interest rates which is something that eventually would get the market attention.  But the fundamentals right now are all in stocks favor.  Lower corporate tax rates mean higher profits any way you look at it.  We'll stick with the technicals though and they remain vastly overbought.  I'll keep an eye on the SPY February puts and hope to eventually do a trade there.  Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

It looks like yesterday was simply a blip on the radar as the Dow continues to power ahead and set records day after day.  The Dow blasted ahead by 322 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is slowing down and moving sideways here.  The VIX is rising and the market is going up, which isn't the normal course of things.  We're in a speculative blow off top in my view.  It is amazing to witness, you must admit that.  Tough to trade though.  The declines are shallow and if you try to get short you get slaughtered.  I am looking at the February SPY puts and that is probably going to be the next trade.  But there are no signals as of yet.  GE is not participating as it lost 7/8 on very heavy volume.  We've shot past $17.50, which is where I was going to consider getting some calls.  I've decided to just step back and let GE go where it will.  There's more going on there than I can figure out.  The earnings on Friday should be the next catalyst.  There's just too much risk right now in that stock for me to take a chance.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar had a bounce.  The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Every indicator remains very overbought for the S&P 500, yet we have not seen any meaningful decline.  Whatever selling that does show up only lasts for a day or so.  We are going parabolic and have moved way above the moving average lines on all time frames.  The end will not be pretty and I hope that I am able to take advantage of it.  The trouble is that I certainly don't know when a decline will happen.  The technical indicators haven't worked for weeks.  So I just don't know how long this will go on.  Perhaps all the way through earnings season.  But that's just a guess.  All I can do is keep an eye on things and try to be ready when the inevitable decline does occur.  We saw how things set up at the end of the year for traders to position themselves for this rally.  Perhaps we'll get the same chance on the decline.  Keep an eye on things.  Asia was generally lower last night and Europe was down.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

We had a one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow opened much higher and then closed lower.  The most watched index dropped 10 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The Dow was up over 250 points in the first half hour.  But we all know that things have gotten way ahead of themselves here.  We're still very overbought and pretty far from the 50 day moving averages on most of the major indices.  One day doesn't make a trend but some type of breather is long overdue.  There's also the possibility that we're at the end of the road for the rally that started in 2009.  But it may be too early to make that call.  But it is possible in my mind.  GE was off 1/2 on very heavy volume.  Earnings due on Friday and I have no trades in mind here.  I might consider getting some calls if we get to $17.50.  Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was average.  The run up in the gold shares the past two days looks like something manufactured for the January option expiration.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today was the first real negative price action that we've seen since the start of 2018.  I do think that it means something.  Whether or not it's the end of the party remains to be seen.  What I would like to see going forward is some king of negative divergence.  As in higher prices for the S&P 500 with lower readings on the short term technical indicators.  Combine that with a summation index that is heading lower would make for a decent attempt at the February SPY puts.  But we'll have to wait and see what the market does for few days before attempting to decipher what's about to happen next.  We are in earnings season now and there is nothing out there that I know of to derail higher profits for the 4th quarter.  But that's just my guess at the moment.  Todays S&P 500 price action was negative and we'll look for downside follow through tomorrow.  The VIX spiked up as well but that doesn't mean that it can't go higher.  Light on the economic data this week but we do have the beige book tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll be keeping an eye on them tonight to see if they follow the US lower.  

This has turned into a momentum driven feeding frenzy as the Dow gained 228 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to move up.  How many more times can I say that we're overbought and staying that way?  We are getting parabolic but I've said that before too.  Enjoy the ride but I don't know how to trade the SPY at this point.  The sell signals don't work and I certainly won't be trying the calls after this run up that we've already had.  So it's sit back and be patient for now.  GE didn't participate as it lost 1/4 and was the most heavily traded issue on the big board.  I probably won't be trying to trade this before the earnings in a week but you never know.  Gold climbed $16 on the futures as the US dollar dropped almost a point.  The XAU gained 2 points, while GDX added almost 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  Gold has found some buyers.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  What more can you say about this incredible rally that we've seen since the start of the year?  The economic data out today was in line with expectations.  It certainly doesn't begin to explain the 200 plus point rally in the Dow.  The market is simply feeding on itself here.  All shorts have been squeezed out again, if there even are any.  I'll say it once again.  This will end badly when it does come to the finish line.  This has all the makings of a speculative blow off top.  Throw in the 5th and final leg up from 2009 and you get the picture.  That is how I see things here at the moment.  I will not chase stocks here because in my mind the day of reckoning will be coming and it probably very well will be sometime this year.  But that doesn't mean we can't just keep going higher in the near term.  It's a long weekend in the US, which leaves only 4 trading days left in the January option cycle.  Very risky but I will look things over this weekend and see what shows up.  I'm leaning towards getting some SPY February puts if a divergence shows up.  But that will take some time.  Until then I'll just have to watch things from the sidelines and try to be patient.  Europe and Asia were mostly higher last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The market continues to power higher as the Dow blasted off 205 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving back up.  We had a slight pause for a couple of sessions and now it's back to buying.  Overbought all the way around and that is a broken record.  Sell signals mean nothing in this atmosphere.  No overhead resistance as we simply are hitting new highs again.  The market is like a freight train with full steam ahead.  It has almost been non stop since the beginning of the new year.  Enjoy the ride because when it ends, it won't be pretty.  But there's no end in sight at the moment.  GE gained almost a dime on very heavy volume.  It did close off of its highs though.  Getting short term overbought here but not extremely so like the overall market.  Gold was up slightly today despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU rose a point and GDX added 1/8.  Volume was light.  The inflation data was light today, which may be a reason for the sell off in the US dollar today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  More inflation data along with retail sales due out tomorrow.  We are also on the cusp of a long weekend in the US.  The market is overbought and just keeps going up.  It is hard to attempt a trade in this environment because the normal technical signals just don't work.  I'll have to try and not make a trade just for the sake of making one.  I'll probably just have to wait for the February option cycle at this point.  We do have the GE earnings coming out in a week.  But trying to justify doing something there probably isn't worth the risk.  It looks like I could be on the sidelines until after the January expiration next Friday.  Europe and Asia were a mixed bag overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Another pause today as the Dow dropped 16 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is beginning to move sideways.  We did finish up from the lows of the session and that tells me we may be done with the near term decline.  The VIX has also rolled back down after hitting its 50 and 200 day moving average.  So my idea of getting some SPY puts is done for now.  At this rate I may not be able to find a SPY trade before the expiration next week.  We remain overbought but that has been the case for quite some time.  The technical signals for selling just haven't worked.  GE was up over 1/3 on pretty heavy volume.  I think that it is safe to say that the bottom has been put in here for GE.  If it ever did get back to $17.50, I would say it's a buy.  Gold bounced back almost $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX rose 1/8.  Volume was lighter.  Inflation data on tap in the next couple of days before a long weekend for the US.  Running out of time in the January option cycle.  I certainly don't want to push an agenda here because the risk increases with each passing day.  We're still on a manic bull run in my opinion, with no overhead resistance.  I will once again say that I think we're in the 5th and final wave up on the S&P 500 that began back in 2009.  When it's over we will see quite a change in price.  But to try and guess when it will happen is not a good idea.  As long as the overbought conditions don't lead to any actual declines, the trend is intact.  However trying to trade it is proving pretty difficult for me.  Really, in the beginning of last week was when the SPY January calls should have been purchased.  Anything after that is more of a guess.  Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trading action.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.    

Still moving up as the Dow gained 102 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today.  We did finish well off the highs for the day in the S&P 500.  Perhaps we are finally going to get a long overdue, much needed rest.  We remain very overbought in the short term.  I am looking at the SPY January puts for a short term trade.  If we stay positive tomorrow, I may attempt it.  This is an idea that would be risky but it may be worth a shot.  It would also be a trade that would have to exited by the close on Friday.  We are on a bull run here but I think we are near the end.  I could be wrong.  GE was up a bit over 1/4 and the volume remains good.  I will need to see some more decline in order to try the January calls here.  Gold fell $6 on the futures as the US dollar was up a bit.  The XAU lost 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume picked up a bit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  When checking the charts last night I decided that looking at the SPY January puts might be worth a try.  However today may have been the day to act.  The VIX has already moved back above 10.  The only problem that I can see with this trade is that instead of a drop to relieve the extreme overbought condition, the market could simply move sideways.  That has been the case for numerous previous instances of this same extremely overbought technical condition for the S&P 500 recently.  That is the risk.  We are further away from the 50 day moving average than we have been before.  The market will not stay up here forever.  So we'll see.  If there is some strength in the morning perhaps I'll give it a shot.  But if we open lower, you'll know that it is too late and the optimum time for this trade has passed.  Europe and Asia were higher last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

The Dow took a slight breather to begin the week as it lost 12 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Very overbought once again and I do expect some decline within the next couple of sessions.  The question is whether it will be enough of a drop to attempt a trade with the SPY January puts.  It is something that I'm considering but probably won't do.  We are still in a rip roaring bull market.  However I will go over the numbers tonight.  GE lost 1/4 and was the most active issue once again on the big board.  What I'm wondering here is if this is the pullback that we need to get long before the earnings due out at the end of next week.  If the short term indicators get back to oversold I might try this idea.  Gold shed a buck or so as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost over a point and GDX fell 1/4.  Volume was average.  The gold shares have had a nice run since the middle of December and are due for a rest.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit out of sorts with many non market related things to deal with.  One of the keys to be successful at this game is to remain focused.  At least that is one of the keys for me.  The game is hard enough as it is but if you have other things on your mind it will make things even tougher.  At least I am able to recognize my current mental condition and tread lightly for now.  The markets really are simply still just going straight up.  It's already too late in my mind to attempt the SPY calls here unless we see some weakness.  There are no sellers.  Shorts have already been squeezed.  Patience is required but there still may be time left for a trade before the January expiration.  We'll see.  Inflation data along with retail sales at the end of this week.  Asia was higher but Japan was closed.  Europe was mixed.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

It's simply just up, up and away at this point.  The Dow soared 220 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Lighter than expected jobs numbers didn't mean a thing.  The market will view anything as positive at this point.  There isn't much more to point out that I haven't already said.  Overbought all the way around and no overhead resistance.  If we keep just going up every day it will turn into a parabolic advance which won't end pretty.  It would certainly be healthier if we could take a rest but at this rate, I wouldn't count on it.  We've moved so far that I'm not looking at the January SPY calls anymore right now.  GE was up a penny on heavy volume but came off of its highs for the session.  It's hanging around the 50 day moving average which should be the first area of resistance.  I am still considering a trade here because we'll get some movement on the earnings in a couple of weeks.  Gold was flat on the day and the US dollar a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  As always the question is where do we go from here?  There's nothing in the way of higher prices.  The market seems to be feeding on itself at this point.  Anybody who tired to get short here is dead.  But I don't know how many shorts were out there.  Even I could recognize the positive set up that that was manipulated last Friday afternoon.  Not taking advantage of it was my first mistake of the new year.  Oh there will be more for sure.  However my ideas were in the right direction and there is plenty of time to make some money trading this year.  It won't always be easy as it has been this week but there will be set ups one way or the other.  Still a couple of weeks to go in the January option cycle with a holiday Monday thrown in there.  Unless something unexpected occurs you can expect higher prices going forward.  We made it to 25000 and the way things are going it looks like 26000 is a few days away.  But I don't believe that.  The volume has been getting lighter as we've moved forward this week.  Sooner or later that will catch up to this rally.  But for now, enjoy the ride.  Europe and Asia were higher as well in a worldwide stampede into stocks.  It seems as if nothing can go wrong for the markets at this point.  But in my mind that makes things tricky going forward from here and perhaps dangerous.  Haven't seen the public in yet though so there's room to roam.  I'll be checking the charts out over the weekend but they will be as overbought as they have been.  I'll try and find some kind of idea to move ahead.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Dow 25000 has been achieved as we gained 152 points on good volume today.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to trend higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow but none of that seems to matter in this environment.  Still overbought and that seems to be the norm from now on.  We all know that will change, we just don't exactly know when.  Those SPY January calls have all made quite a bit money.  They'll probably make some more but I'll be waiting for some weakness before deciding whether to try that idea.  GE was up over 1/3 and the volume remains heavy.  We've made it to the 50 day moving average here and that would have been the target for that trade.  Perhaps the GE calls can be purchased before the January expiration but it would be risky.  The earnings are due out on expiration Friday.  We'll see how things go from here.  Gold was a bit higher today as the US dollar fell back again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Quite a start to the new year as we are screaming ahead in an overbought technical condition.  Anybody that has tried to get short has been squeezed relentlessly.  There have been plenty of sell signals but none of them have amounted to anything.  The drop last Friday was the perfect set up for the calls.  If that wasn't some type of manipulation, I don't know what is.  But nobody really cares as long as the market keeps going up.  Either that or nobody is paying attention.  I guess I'm just bitter because I wasn't astute enough to take advantage of it.  It certainly doesn't matter now.  We'll get the employment report tomorrow and the market reaction to it.  At the rate we are going, no matter what the numbers it will be viewed as positive.  New all time highs day after day with no overhead resistance.  It is a bull market dream and probably has plenty of room to run.  I do not think the general public has been sucked in yet.  When they get here, it will be the end.  Europe and Asia were both up overnight.  We'll close out the first week of 2018 tomorrow.   

More of the same in the march to 25000 as the Dow gained 98 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues its grind higher.  Once again the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  There's no overhead resistance and apparently nothing in the way of higher prices.  Too late for the January SPY calls unless we see a pullback but I don't expect one anytime soon.  I'm not sure what the next trade will be.  GE continued higher as well and was up 17 cents.  Volume was pretty heavy again and it was the most active issue on the big board again.  I am still kicking myself for not getting into that trade.  It's like they're giving away money if you are a savvy enough trader.  Gold was flat on the futures as the US dollar had a bounce.  The XAU fell a point and GDX shed 1/4 on good volume.  I'm not sure what's next for the gold shares but they are short term overbought.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  The beige book came and went and the next potential mover is the jobs report on Friday.  I don't have anything in mind for that.  The VIX has moved back down to the lower end of its trend channel and might need to take a pause here.  But the fact of the matter is that all major stock indices are setting new all time highs and we are on an incredible bull run.  There isn't anything that I can see that is in the way of simply continuing to go up.  Overbought and staying that way was the mantra for 2017 and 2018 is starting out the same way.  We're once again pretty far from the 50 day moving averages for many major stock indices.  That condition hasn't led to any sustained declines for months.  We'll simply have to continue to sit back and enjoy the ride.  Asia was generally higher and Europe was up as well.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Off to the races as an expected positive start to the new year materialized.  The Dow gained 104 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trending higher.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that's a positive.  I did place an order for the SPY January calls but it wasn't filled and I canceled it.  It now looks like the late Friday decline of last week was just a pro set up for the calls to start the new year.  I suppose that I should have been paying more attention but I did not expect that drop in the final half hour last week.  I still like the long side here but the best time to get in has passed.  GE took off as expected and gained 1/2 on heavy volume.  It was the most active issue on the NYSE.  That idea was a winner and I regret not getting in before the end of the year.  In retrospect I should have adjusted the order up since I really though the trade had merit.  Simply another missed opportunity as the dogs of the Dow crew piled into that stock today.  It's too late to try this trade now but perhaps we'll get a retest of the recent lows.  But I doubt it.  Gold added $10 on the futures as the US dollar continues to drop.  I still don't know what is going on here.  A raise in interest rates but the dollar declines?  This is what makes the trading so difficult sometimes.  The normal expectations just don't occur.  However the relationship between gold and the US dollar is acting according to expectations.  The XAU rose 2 7/8, while GDX gained over 1/2.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated on the first trading day of the new year.  There I had two good ideas to trade and they both so far would have worked out well but I did not get in them.  I did try but that doesn't add any money to the trading account.  I do not want to chase anything here but I do think that we are on our way to Dow 25000.  There's still plenty of time in the January option cycle but I don't want to trade just for the sake of trading.  I guess I'll take another look at things tonight and try to come up with another idea or two.  We've got beige book due out tomorrow and the employment report to deal with on Friday.  I don't expect any surprises but you never know.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow but I'd expect more upside here in the US.