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Friday, January 12, 2018

This has turned into a momentum driven feeding frenzy as the Dow gained 228 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to move up.  How many more times can I say that we're overbought and staying that way?  We are getting parabolic but I've said that before too.  Enjoy the ride but I don't know how to trade the SPY at this point.  The sell signals don't work and I certainly won't be trying the calls after this run up that we've already had.  So it's sit back and be patient for now.  GE didn't participate as it lost 1/4 and was the most heavily traded issue on the big board.  I probably won't be trying to trade this before the earnings in a week but you never know.  Gold climbed $16 on the futures as the US dollar dropped almost a point.  The XAU gained 2 points, while GDX added almost 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  Gold has found some buyers.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  What more can you say about this incredible rally that we've seen since the start of the year?  The economic data out today was in line with expectations.  It certainly doesn't begin to explain the 200 plus point rally in the Dow.  The market is simply feeding on itself here.  All shorts have been squeezed out again, if there even are any.  I'll say it once again.  This will end badly when it does come to the finish line.  This has all the makings of a speculative blow off top.  Throw in the 5th and final leg up from 2009 and you get the picture.  That is how I see things here at the moment.  I will not chase stocks here because in my mind the day of reckoning will be coming and it probably very well will be sometime this year.  But that doesn't mean we can't just keep going higher in the near term.  It's a long weekend in the US, which leaves only 4 trading days left in the January option cycle.  Very risky but I will look things over this weekend and see what shows up.  I'm leaning towards getting some SPY February puts if a divergence shows up.  But that will take some time.  Until then I'll just have to watch things from the sidelines and try to be patient.  Europe and Asia were mostly higher last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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