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Monday, January 29, 2018

Some downside to start the week for a change as the Dow lost 177 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index lower.  Perhaps this is the beginning of a much needed decline but that still remains to be seen.  I will be looking at hopefully a lighter volume push higher from here, in order to purchase the SPY February puts.  Or it may already be too late.  These parabolic moves higher never end well and sometimes it is simply a straight line back down.  There's also the possibility that this is just another blip on the radar as we continue higher to new all time highs again.  But the breadth today tells me that is probably not the case.  I'll be looking to get the SPY puts sometime this week.  GE bucked the trend and rose 15 cents on the usual heavy volume.  Still holding the $16 level here.  Gold fell over $10 today as the US dollar edged higher.  US interest rates are on the rise and that is normally a headwind for gold.  The XAU was off over 2 3/4, while GDX lost 2/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a trend but it certainly feels different to me today on this decline.  We did have a good rise on the VIX today and it is getting to the overbought range on some of the technical indicators.  That would not equate to more selling in the immediate future in my view but anything can happen in this game.  We've got the end of the month coming up on Wednesday along with the Fed.  The thinking is that the Fed will be a non event since a new chairman is about to take over in February.  But you never know.  Also the employment report is due out on Friday.  So there are plenty of potential market moving events to deal with this week.  It could be that the time to act is now for the SPY February puts.  However I will at least try and wait for some type of negative divergence signal.  If we do simply go straight down from here, it will be too late for me anyway.  So needless to say, it is time to really pay attention to what the market does here.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the trading action overnight.

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