Thursday, January 25, 2018
Another mixed bag today as the Dow climbed 140 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is heading sideways. The NASDAQ showed a small loss on the session and the TRAN has rolled over. I do not know if this is a precursor for overall lower prices but I am keeping an eye on it. The same extreme overbought conditions persist for the major stock averages. It is impossible to say how long this can go on. It's a parabolic run up in my mind and I want to be on board when it turns around. GE dropped another 1/4 and the volume remains very high. Gold fell $15 on the futures as the US dollar steadied. The XAU shed 2 1/8, while GDX lost 1/2. Volume was heavy. This looks like a turnaround for the gold shares so perhaps we will begin to see some dollar strength going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today even though we gained 140 points. I'm not exactly sure what's going on there. I'm still looking at the SPY February puts but will probably let tomorrow pass and wait to see what happens in the beginning of next week. There still isn't a clear signal that a decline is about to occur. We are in a momentum move higher and it isn't a good idea to try and guess the top. All recent declines have been short lived and I'm looking for a more sustained event. The best that I can do here is monitor the situation and be prepared to act. But for now the sidelines are the place for me to be. This will eventually change as conditions warrant if I'm adept enough to recognize the situation. That remains to be seen. Europe and Asia were generally lower last night. We'll see how the week finishes trading tomorrow.
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