Tuesday, January 02, 2018
Off to the races as an expected positive start to the new year materialized. The Dow gained 104 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending higher. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that's a positive. I did place an order for the SPY January calls but it wasn't filled and I canceled it. It now looks like the late Friday decline of last week was just a pro set up for the calls to start the new year. I suppose that I should have been paying more attention but I did not expect that drop in the final half hour last week. I still like the long side here but the best time to get in has passed. GE took off as expected and gained 1/2 on heavy volume. It was the most active issue on the NYSE. That idea was a winner and I regret not getting in before the end of the year. In retrospect I should have adjusted the order up since I really though the trade had merit. Simply another missed opportunity as the dogs of the Dow crew piled into that stock today. It's too late to try this trade now but perhaps we'll get a retest of the recent lows. But I doubt it. Gold added $10 on the futures as the US dollar continues to drop. I still don't know what is going on here. A raise in interest rates but the dollar declines? This is what makes the trading so difficult sometimes. The normal expectations just don't occur. However the relationship between gold and the US dollar is acting according to expectations. The XAU rose 2 7/8, while GDX gained over 1/2. Volume was good. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated on the first trading day of the new year. There I had two good ideas to trade and they both so far would have worked out well but I did not get in them. I did try but that doesn't add any money to the trading account. I do not want to chase anything here but I do think that we are on our way to Dow 25000. There's still plenty of time in the January option cycle but I don't want to trade just for the sake of trading. I guess I'll take another look at things tonight and try to come up with another idea or two. We've got beige book due out tomorrow and the employment report to deal with on Friday. I don't expect any surprises but you never know. Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night. We'll see how it goes tomorrow but I'd expect more upside here in the US.
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