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Wednesday, January 17, 2018

It looks like yesterday was simply a blip on the radar as the Dow continues to power ahead and set records day after day.  The Dow blasted ahead by 322 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is slowing down and moving sideways here.  The VIX is rising and the market is going up, which isn't the normal course of things.  We're in a speculative blow off top in my view.  It is amazing to witness, you must admit that.  Tough to trade though.  The declines are shallow and if you try to get short you get slaughtered.  I am looking at the February SPY puts and that is probably going to be the next trade.  But there are no signals as of yet.  GE is not participating as it lost 7/8 on very heavy volume.  We've shot past $17.50, which is where I was going to consider getting some calls.  I've decided to just step back and let GE go where it will.  There's more going on there than I can figure out.  The earnings on Friday should be the next catalyst.  There's just too much risk right now in that stock for me to take a chance.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar had a bounce.  The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Every indicator remains very overbought for the S&P 500, yet we have not seen any meaningful decline.  Whatever selling that does show up only lasts for a day or so.  We are going parabolic and have moved way above the moving average lines on all time frames.  The end will not be pretty and I hope that I am able to take advantage of it.  The trouble is that I certainly don't know when a decline will happen.  The technical indicators haven't worked for weeks.  So I just don't know how long this will go on.  Perhaps all the way through earnings season.  But that's just a guess.  All I can do is keep an eye on things and try to be ready when the inevitable decline does occur.  We saw how things set up at the end of the year for traders to position themselves for this rally.  Perhaps we'll get the same chance on the decline.  Keep an eye on things.  Asia was generally lower last night and Europe was down.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

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