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Wednesday, January 31, 2018

We got a slight bounce today as the Dow rose 72 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  I am looking for more upside as today was not enough to cheapen the SPY February puts for my taste.  But the market may not cooperate.  The Fed came and went and next up is the Friday jobs report.  What I'd like to see is a solid upside session in order to get short.  The ideal scenario would be to hit a nominal new high with a lower RSI reading but that would take a few days and the market could just continue to fall apart here.  So I'll have to wait and see.  It isn't the best case scenario but I am still convinced that this rally has run its course.  GE was up almost 1/4 on still heavy volume.  The more the $16 level is tested, the more chance it has to hold.  Gold gained almost $10 as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was better than yesterday.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX dropped slightly today and is coming off of short term overbought levels.  The small stocks are holding up rather well here and no important uptrend lines have been broken to the downside yet.  In fact the resilience of the small caps here may mean that the decline that I'm looking for may not come to pass.  The smaller stocks are usually the leaders of moves both up and down.  The McClellan oscillator did hit a pretty oversold level yesterday, so some near term upside is expected.  How far and how strong that upside is will tell us a lot about where we are going.  I'm still favoring the SPY February puts during this option cycle but as always the timing is key.  At this point I may have to wait until next week.  However the risk will increase with each passing day.  I'll be watching and waiting for now.  Europe and Asia were both mixed last night.  It's the beginning of the month tomorrow but I would expect a holding pattern as we wait for Fridays employment report.  Apple reports after the bell tomorrow and that could affect Fridays action as well.  But let's see what happens on Thursday first. 

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