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Tuesday, January 09, 2018

Still moving up as the Dow gained 102 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today.  We did finish well off the highs for the day in the S&P 500.  Perhaps we are finally going to get a long overdue, much needed rest.  We remain very overbought in the short term.  I am looking at the SPY January puts for a short term trade.  If we stay positive tomorrow, I may attempt it.  This is an idea that would be risky but it may be worth a shot.  It would also be a trade that would have to exited by the close on Friday.  We are on a bull run here but I think we are near the end.  I could be wrong.  GE was up a bit over 1/4 and the volume remains good.  I will need to see some more decline in order to try the January calls here.  Gold fell $6 on the futures as the US dollar was up a bit.  The XAU lost 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume picked up a bit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  When checking the charts last night I decided that looking at the SPY January puts might be worth a try.  However today may have been the day to act.  The VIX has already moved back above 10.  The only problem that I can see with this trade is that instead of a drop to relieve the extreme overbought condition, the market could simply move sideways.  That has been the case for numerous previous instances of this same extremely overbought technical condition for the S&P 500 recently.  That is the risk.  We are further away from the 50 day moving average than we have been before.  The market will not stay up here forever.  So we'll see.  If there is some strength in the morning perhaps I'll give it a shot.  But if we open lower, you'll know that it is too late and the optimum time for this trade has passed.  Europe and Asia were higher last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

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