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Tuesday, January 16, 2018

We had a one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow opened much higher and then closed lower.  The most watched index dropped 10 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The Dow was up over 250 points in the first half hour.  But we all know that things have gotten way ahead of themselves here.  We're still very overbought and pretty far from the 50 day moving averages on most of the major indices.  One day doesn't make a trend but some type of breather is long overdue.  There's also the possibility that we're at the end of the road for the rally that started in 2009.  But it may be too early to make that call.  But it is possible in my mind.  GE was off 1/2 on very heavy volume.  Earnings due on Friday and I have no trades in mind here.  I might consider getting some calls if we get to $17.50.  Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was average.  The run up in the gold shares the past two days looks like something manufactured for the January option expiration.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today was the first real negative price action that we've seen since the start of 2018.  I do think that it means something.  Whether or not it's the end of the party remains to be seen.  What I would like to see going forward is some king of negative divergence.  As in higher prices for the S&P 500 with lower readings on the short term technical indicators.  Combine that with a summation index that is heading lower would make for a decent attempt at the February SPY puts.  But we'll have to wait and see what the market does for few days before attempting to decipher what's about to happen next.  We are in earnings season now and there is nothing out there that I know of to derail higher profits for the 4th quarter.  But that's just my guess at the moment.  Todays S&P 500 price action was negative and we'll look for downside follow through tomorrow.  The VIX spiked up as well but that doesn't mean that it can't go higher.  Light on the economic data this week but we do have the beige book tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll be keeping an eye on them tonight to see if they follow the US lower.  

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