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Friday, January 05, 2018

It's simply just up, up and away at this point.  The Dow soared 220 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Lighter than expected jobs numbers didn't mean a thing.  The market will view anything as positive at this point.  There isn't much more to point out that I haven't already said.  Overbought all the way around and no overhead resistance.  If we keep just going up every day it will turn into a parabolic advance which won't end pretty.  It would certainly be healthier if we could take a rest but at this rate, I wouldn't count on it.  We've moved so far that I'm not looking at the January SPY calls anymore right now.  GE was up a penny on heavy volume but came off of its highs for the session.  It's hanging around the 50 day moving average which should be the first area of resistance.  I am still considering a trade here because we'll get some movement on the earnings in a couple of weeks.  Gold was flat on the day and the US dollar a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  As always the question is where do we go from here?  There's nothing in the way of higher prices.  The market seems to be feeding on itself at this point.  Anybody who tired to get short here is dead.  But I don't know how many shorts were out there.  Even I could recognize the positive set up that that was manipulated last Friday afternoon.  Not taking advantage of it was my first mistake of the new year.  Oh there will be more for sure.  However my ideas were in the right direction and there is plenty of time to make some money trading this year.  It won't always be easy as it has been this week but there will be set ups one way or the other.  Still a couple of weeks to go in the January option cycle with a holiday Monday thrown in there.  Unless something unexpected occurs you can expect higher prices going forward.  We made it to 25000 and the way things are going it looks like 26000 is a few days away.  But I don't believe that.  The volume has been getting lighter as we've moved forward this week.  Sooner or later that will catch up to this rally.  But for now, enjoy the ride.  Europe and Asia were higher as well in a worldwide stampede into stocks.  It seems as if nothing can go wrong for the markets at this point.  But in my mind that makes things tricky going forward from here and perhaps dangerous.  Haven't seen the public in yet though so there's room to roam.  I'll be checking the charts out over the weekend but they will be as overbought as they have been.  I'll try and find some kind of idea to move ahead.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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