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Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Another pause today as the Dow dropped 16 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is beginning to move sideways.  We did finish up from the lows of the session and that tells me we may be done with the near term decline.  The VIX has also rolled back down after hitting its 50 and 200 day moving average.  So my idea of getting some SPY puts is done for now.  At this rate I may not be able to find a SPY trade before the expiration next week.  We remain overbought but that has been the case for quite some time.  The technical signals for selling just haven't worked.  GE was up over 1/3 on pretty heavy volume.  I think that it is safe to say that the bottom has been put in here for GE.  If it ever did get back to $17.50, I would say it's a buy.  Gold bounced back almost $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX rose 1/8.  Volume was lighter.  Inflation data on tap in the next couple of days before a long weekend for the US.  Running out of time in the January option cycle.  I certainly don't want to push an agenda here because the risk increases with each passing day.  We're still on a manic bull run in my opinion, with no overhead resistance.  I will once again say that I think we're in the 5th and final wave up on the S&P 500 that began back in 2009.  When it's over we will see quite a change in price.  But to try and guess when it will happen is not a good idea.  As long as the overbought conditions don't lead to any actual declines, the trend is intact.  However trying to trade it is proving pretty difficult for me.  Really, in the beginning of last week was when the SPY January calls should have been purchased.  Anything after that is more of a guess.  Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trading action.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.    

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