Wednesday, January 24, 2018
A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 41 points on good volume. the advance/declines were slightly negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The NASDAQ was much lower and the S&P 500 opened higher and closed lower for a one day reversal to the downside. I'm not sure if that means this is the beginning of something lower or just another blip on the upside radar. Time will tell on that. The summation index is trending sideways. The small stocks were lower today and that could mean that things are going to change but one day doesn't make a trend. I am still looking at the SPY February puts. Regardless, we remain very overbought and are still basically moving higher in a parabolic blow off in my mind. I don't know when it will end. GE was right back down today and lost about 1/2 on extremely heavy volume and was once again the most actively traded issue on the big board. We'll see if $16 holds. Gold climbed $20 on the futures as the US dollar had a drop once again. The XAU gained 2 1/8 and GDX added 1/2. Volume increased on the rise again. I still don't know why the US dollar is dropping with US interest rates rising. I do know that inverse relationship won't last forever. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There is a potential short term negative divergence on the RSI for the RUT. It is potential because we could go higher from here and that would negate the signal. So it is something to keep an eye on in the near term. Otherwise the conditions remain the same. Well above all moving average lines and the technical indicators are all over extended. The TRAN showed weakness today on heavy volume. The short term indicators have started to roll over here. But again, upside tomorrow would turn things back up. However this index is starting to move sideways and could be an early warning of a change in trend. That's a guess as usual. We'll see how things go the rest of this week. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trading. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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